A new importance sampling Monte Carlo method for a flow network reliability problem

The exact evaluation of the probability that the maximum st‐flow is greater than or equal to a fixed demand in a stochastic flow network is an NP‐hard problem. This limitation leads one to consider Monte Carlo alternatives. In this paper, we propose a new importance sampling Monte Carlo method. It is based on a recursive use of the state space decomposition methodology of Doulliez and Jamoulle during the simulation process. We show theoretically that the resulting estimator belongs to the variance‐reduction family and we give an upper bound on its variance. As shown by experimental tests, the new sampling principle offers, in many cases, substantial speedups with respect to a previous importance sampling based on the same decomposition procedure and its best performances are obtained when highly reliable networks are analyzed. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 204–228, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.10004     

舰船装备价格指数与物价指数的关系研究

对舰船装备价格指数与物价指数建立数学模型 ,主要分析物价指数对舰船各项成本的影响 ,分析舰船装备价格指数比物价指数涨幅更大的原因 .     

基于STD的运行时系统研究与测试软件可移植性的实现

分析了IEEE1641信号与测试定义标准的层次结构,利用UML建模工具对该标准中的基本信号组件和测试信号框架进行了静态和动态建模,在此基础上分析了STD与ATML的关系,研究了基于该标准的运行时系统实现方法,实现了测试软件的可移植性。     

坦克嵌入式车场射击训练炮长操纵控制模型

在嵌入式射击模拟训练系统中,针对炮长操作过程对模拟训练的影响,建立了炮长操纵控制模型。炮长操纵控制模型包括炮长操纵模型和炮长射击决策模型。炮长操纵模型的建立是基于装备的物理模型和人的生理反应模型。炮长射击决策模型根据坦克射击教范要求,采用与/或正向演绎推理得到。在炮长操纵控制模型基础上,建立了射击反应时间模型,并与实际装备操作进行了比较,对建立的操纵控制模型进行了验证。     

量测误差的时间序列分析方法

针对工程实践中实际量测误差大多并非纯白噪声特点,运用概率统计学的一个分支——时间序列分析中提供的动态数据处理的方法,采用多种的参数估计算法来对量测误差进行拟合和仿真,给出了实验室仿真过程中需叠加的量测误差的新生成办法。所用方法可以推广到对其它数据序列的处理。     

基于模糊时间序列的时变动态系统模糊建模

要想建立结构不确定、参数时变的动态系统的模型是很困难的。改进了Song Chisson的模糊时间序列方法,并成功应用于时变动态系统的辨识与建模和自适应控制。仿真结果表明该方法计算量小,实时性好,能很快地跟踪系统的变化。     

Discrete‐time analysis of MAP/PH/1 multiclass general preemptive priority queue

We use the matrix‐geometric method to study the MAP/PH/1 general preemptive priority queue with a multiple class of jobs. A procedure for obtaining the block matrices representing the transition matrix P is presented. We show that the special upper triangular structure of the matrix R obtained by Miller [Computation of steady‐state probabilities for M/M/1 priority queues, Oper Res 29(5) (1981), 945–958] can be extended to an upper triangular block structure. Moreover, the subblock matrices of matrix R also have such a structure. With this special structure, we develop a procedure to compute the matrix R. After obtaining the stationary distribution of the system, we study two primary performance indices, namely, the distributions of the number of jobs of each type in the system and their waiting times. Although most of our analysis is carried out for the case of K = 3, the developed approach is general enough to study the other cases (K ≥ 4). © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 662–682, 2003.     

Realignment in the National Football League: Did they do it right?

The National Football League (NFL) in the United States expanded to 32 teams in 2002 with the addition of a team in Houston. At that point, the league was realigned into eight divisions, each containing four teams. We describe a branch‐and‐cut algorithm for minimizing the sum of intradivisional travel distances. We consider first the case where any team can be assigned to any division. We also consider imposing restrictions, such as aligning the AFC (American Football Conference) and the NFC (National Football Conference) separately or maintaining traditional rivalries. We show that the alignment chosen by the NFL does not minimize the sum of intradivisional travel distances, but that it is close to optimal for an alignment that aligns the NFC and AFC separately and imposes some additional restrictions. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 683–701, 2003.     

时域磁场积分方程迭代求解

利用时间步进算法(MOT)求解时域电场积分方程解决导体目标瞬态散射问题时,其计算结果不稳定,会发生后期震荡现象。通过对时域磁场积分方程显式和隐式方案的分析,推导出一种隐式的迭代方案,它不但易于实现,而且数值结果表明这种时域磁场积分方程MOT迭代方案比时域电场积分方程MOT具有更好的稳定性,延缓了后期震荡效应。     

结合动态时间弯曲与决策树方法的液体火箭发动机故障诊断

对某大型液体火箭发动机的热试车数据及通过发动机模型仿真得到的故障数据进行动态时间弯曲分析,得到弯曲路径集,然后结合决策树方法进行了故障检测和诊断。对于故障试车没有出现漏报警和误报警,对于正常试车没有出现误报警。通过与神经网络、支持向量机等方法所得结果的对比,证明该方法可以成功地应用于火箭发动机的故障检测和诊断。