Transient analysis of Markov models of fault‐tolerant systems with deferred repair using split regenerative randomization

The (standard) randomization method is an attractive alternative for the transient analysis of continuous time Markov models. The main advantages of the method are numerical stability, well‐controlled computation error, and ability to specify the computation error in advance. However, the fact that the method can be computationally very expensive limits its applicability. In this paper, we develop a new method called split regenerative randomization, which, having the same good properties as standard randomization, can be significantly more efficient. The method covers reliability‐like models with a particular but quite general structure and requires the selection of a subset of states and a regenerative state satisfying some conditions. For a class of continuous time Markov models, model class C₂, including typical failure/repair reliability‐like models with exponential failure and repair time distributions and deferred repair, natural selections are available for both the subset of states and the regenerative state and, for those natural selections, theoretical results are available assessing the efficiency of the method in terms of “visible” model characteristics. Those results can be used to anticipate when the method can be expected to be competitive. We illustrate the application of the method using a large class C₂ model and show that for models in that class the method can indeed be significantly more efficient than previously available randomization‐based methods. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

THE EFFECTS OF THE WORLD DEFENSE INDUSTRY AND US MILITARY AID TO ISRAEL ON THE ISRAELI DEFENSE INDUSTRY: A DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCTS MODEL

This paper models the interactions between the defense industry market structure and the defense needs of Israel, the USA and Western Europe, which produce several heterogeneous defense goods. The model specifies that the defense industries of the US and Europe are ‘large’ while that of Israel is ‘small’. The US military aid to Israel is also an integral part of the model. The results show that net defense costs of Israel are minimal when the number of its defense firms is one. The model predicts that an increase in US military aid reduces Israel’s government expenditure, its defense industry’s profits and its net defense costs.     

The structure of the defense industry and the security needs of the country: a differentiated products model

This paper models the interactions between the defense needs of the USA and Western Europe, which produce several heterogeneous defense goods, and the defense industry market structure. The results show that net defense costs of the USA and Europe are lower when the number of defense firms in each arms‐producing country is small and when the world prices of the defense goods are high. The model predicts that the increase in world prices will crowd‐out countries in the developing world from the market for modern weapon systems and may force them to develop and use ‘cheap and dirty’ weapon systems.     

Estimating defence budget saving from disarmament: the United States’ case

Probing the technology in the production of US national defence by using a dynamic cost‐function model with adjustment costs, this paper evaluates the effect of reducing the level of national defence on the defence budget saving. Our inquiry involves estimating the defence production structure without output data for non‐market goods that are normally unavailable. Our findings include: (i) the United States behaves rationally to minimize cost in the production of national defence; (ii) the adjustment costs are larger in disarmament than in military build‐up; (iii) due to the adjustment costs peculiar to disarmament, the defence budget saving from disarmament appears small, but cutbacks allow great savings on the defence budget.     

基于最短拦截时间的异面拦截机动轨道设计与优化

本文构建了单脉冲机动在燃耗约束下的最短时间拦截轨道设计模型与求解方法,将用数学泛函求边值问题转换为高次代数方程的求解计算,并用牛顿迭代法进行快速寻根,仿真结果表明模型及算法准确、有效,满足精度要求。     

基于行为建模的移动代理性能评估

针对移动代理的分布式应用性能评估需求,建立了移动代理生命周期中主要行为的网络负载模型和时间消耗模型.在3种典型分布式应用想定下,分析了基于C＼S模式和移动代理模式的应用实现基本过程,对两种模式下的网络负载和执行时间进行了仿真比较,结果证明了在访问节点数量较多,网络传输速率较低时,移动代理模式的具有更好性能.     

基于复杂排队系统的TOC服务模型与性能分析

三值光学计算机的运算请求处理过程缺乏合理、系统的性能评价标准与体系。基于M/M/1、M/M/n、MX/M/1和M/MB/1构成的复杂排队系统,构建了三值光学计算机的四阶段服务模型,同时建立了立即调度和结束时调度两种不同策略与算法。基于不同排队系统讨论了运算请求的接收时间、预处理时间、运算时间和发送时间的计算方法,进而得到最终响应时间。最后,通过仿真实验对两种策略的模型进行验证,结果表明结束时调度策略明显优于立即调度策略。     

基于CP CI总线的时统模块测量电路设计

为解决时统模块的测试问题,提出了一种基于CPCI总线的数字时统模块测量电路。重点对测量电路的组成、测量原理、CPCI总线接口设计与驱动设计等内容进行了介绍。提出的测量电路满足了4块某型时统模块的批量测试需求。该测量电路具有稳定性高、性价比高、易于实现等优点,适合于工程应用。     

基于通信时延信息的被动定位精度分析

基于通信信号中的时延信息,构建了基本TDOA定位算法,详细推导出了其理论定位精度分布及理论上最优定位点精度,为其定位的主要误差影响因素分析,及基于时延信息的被动定位算法的设计和改进力度提供了参考依据。并结合通信信号实际环境,给出了较为全面的仿真案例验算。     

无人作战飞机通信延时仿真

通信作为无人作战飞机任务控制站与无人作战飞机之间的纽带,在无人作战飞机系统中起着至关重要的作用。简要阐述了引起无人作战飞机通信延时的具体因素,分析了无人作战飞机使用的几种通信方式,提出并运用网络仿真工具NS2(networksimulation-2)针对视线通信方式和不同中继方式下的通信延时进行了仿真,最后对仿真作了分析和解释。