The effects of model parameter deviations on the variance of a linearly filtered time series

We consider a general linear filtering operation on an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series. The variance of the filter output, which is an important quantity in many applications, is not known with certainty because it depends on the true ARMA parameters. We derive an expression for the sensitivity (i.e., the partial derivative) of the output variance with respect to deviations in the model parameters. The results provide insight into the robustness of many common statistical methods that are based on linear filtering and also yield approximate confidence intervals for the output variance. We discuss applications to time series forecasting, statistical process control, and automatic feedback control of industrial processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

两类白化权函数的比较

分别根据三角形白化权函数和梯形白化权函数对长江流域各站点的水污染现状进行灰色评价,对评价结果进行比较,发现三角形白化权函数和梯形白化权函数的使用在灰色评价中利用最大隶属度原理得到的结果是一样的,这与灰色理论及模糊数学理论是一致的。若要精确到求出评价值进行排序,结果不完全相同,但差别不大。与其他方法比较利用梯形白化权函数计算尽管复杂但效果更好些。     

目标信息的时效性分析

战场态势是随时间不断变化的,描述战场实体状态的目标信息有其寿命周期,须及时生成并提供给使用者.提出信息价值和信息时效性的概念来衡量指挥自动化系统提供的目标信息是否满足作战行动对时间的要求.信息价值因为延时而衰减,从而降低使用信息所能达到的效果.通过分析信息延时对决策质量、毁伤概率的影响,分别讨论了信息用于决策和作战的时效性.     

Cell structure of microcellular combustible object foamed by supercritical carbon dioxide

In order to solve the issue that the combustible objects for cased telescoped ammunition (CTA) didn't burn completely during the combustion process, the microcellular combustible objects were foamed with numerous cells in the micron order to improve the combustion performance by the supercritical carbon dioxide (SCCO₂) foaming technology. As the cell structure determined the combustion properties of microcellular combustible objects, the solubility of SCCO₂ dissolved into the combustible objects was obtained from the gravimetric method, and scanning electron microscope (SEM) was applied to characterize the cell structure under various process conditions of solubility, foaming temperature and foaming time. SEM images indicate that the cell diameter of microcellular combustible objects is in the level of 1 μm and the cell density is about 10¹¹ cell⋅cm⁻³. The microcellular combustible objects fabricated by the SCCO₂ foaming technology are smooth and uniform, and the high specific surface area of cell structure can lead to the significant combustion performance of microcellular combustible object for CTA in the future.     

A computation procedure for the exact solution of location-allocation problems with rectangular distances

A method is presented to locate and allocate p new facilities in relation to n existing facilities. Each of the n existing facilities has a requirement flow which must be supplied by the new facilities. Rectangular distances are assumed to exist between all facilities. The algorithm proceeds in two stages. In the first stage a set of all possible optimal new facility locations is determined by a set reduction algorithm. The resultant problem is shown to be equivalent to finding the p-median of a weighted connected graph. In the second stage the optimal locations and allocations are obtained by using a technique for solving the p-median problem.     

一卷和陶诗,满腔忠义忱——论戴良的和陶诗创作

中国文学史上,追和陶诗的现象,蔚为大观。元遗民诗人戴良推崇陶渊明的忠义气节,作有《和陶诗》一卷。其主题取向与陶诗相近,却又彰显忠义,并形成了独特的＂陶渊明意象群＂。同时,其将唱和与赠答功能合一,兼有书信作用。又以序存事,足可补史之阙。     

防区外多导弹协同突防复合制导研究

针对防区外多导弹协同突防要求导弹能够成功突破敌防御系统并击中目标的问题,提出了一种基于虚拟目标的复合制导规律。首先,在敌雷达探测范围的边缘设置虚拟目标,将导弹制导过程分为制导段Ⅰ和制导段Ⅱ。然后,研究了一种基于攻击时间和攻击角度控制的制导规律,使导弹在制导段Ⅰ按指定时间和角度追踪到虚拟目标,导弹转入制导段Ⅱ后在以攻击时间最短为指标函数的最优制导规律导引下攻击真实目标。仿真结果表明该复合制导规律大大提高了多导弹的整体突防能力。     

反导作战指控系统信息流时延模型研究与应用

在现代反导作战中,如何规划反导作战指控系统从而缩短目标、指挥信息传输时间和提高指挥精度是很重要的问题。基于此展开讨论,首先设计规划了3种反导作战指控系统信息流时延模型并提出了应用原则,其次分别以一典型3 500 km TBM和不同射程TBM为例进行了时延模型仿真计算和分析,最后通过分析计算结果给出反导作战指控系统建设性结论。     

基于方位角变化率的快速高精度无源定位方法

在分析现有单站无源定位方法优缺点的基础上,根据运动平台对固定目标无源定位技术的特点,提出了一种通过方位角变化率信息对观测站与目标间距离进行解算的快速高精度无源定位方法。并通过仿真,验证了该方法是一种高精度、快速的定位方法,具有较强的通用性。其主要应用于机载无源探测设备对地面固定雷达站或其他辐射源定位,从而为引导导弹对其攻击提供必要的数据。     

新疆高校发展留学生教育的SWOT分析

随着经济贸易的全球化,高等教育国际化已经成为当代高等教育发展的必然趋势。留学生教育已经成为衡量高等教育发展状况的重要指标。本文用SWOT分析法剖析新疆高校发展留学生教育所具有的优势、劣势以及面临的机遇和威胁,为新疆高校制定适合本地留学生教育的未来发展战略提供依据,以推动新疆高校留学生教育的快速发展。