小型侦察无人机任务能力及拒止距离分析

随着无人机技术的快速发展,无人机已在民用、军事领域得到广泛应用.尤其是具有"低慢小"特征的小型无人机,使用方便灵活,成本相对低廉,可用于执行侦察监视、自杀袭击等任务,对日常防空安全、重要目标防护构成严重威胁.分析研究了小型无人机主要威胁样式,重点分析了小型侦察无人机载荷任务能力,提出对该类目标拒止距离需求,可为相关拦截...     

Call center arrival modeling: A Bayesian state‐space approach

In this article, we introduce three discrete time Bayesian state‐space models with Poisson measurements, each aiming to address different issues in call center arrival modeling. We present the properties of the models and develop their Bayesian inference. In so doing, we provide sequential updating and smoothing for call arrival rates and discuss how the models can be used for intra‐day, inter‐day, and inter‐week forecasts. We illustrate the implementation of the models by using actual arrival data from a US commercial bank's call center and provide forecasting comparisons. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 58: 28–42, 2011     

本征模式函数与经验模式分解方法分析

介绍本征模式函数IMF满足的条件和定义,分析了经验摸式分解EMD的前提、本质及其对非线性平衡系统数据处理所体现的优越性,并以隧道采集的风力数据处理为例,对上述理论进行了验证,展示了这种新方法的作用和效果。最后,从理论上证明了所处理数据的完备性及EMD成员正交性应满足的条件。     

Modeling and analysis of a mixed‐model assembly line with stochastic operation times

We consider a mixed‐model assembly line (MMAL) comprised a set of workstations and a conveyor. The workstations are arranged in a serial configuration. The conveyor moves at a constant speed along the workstations. Initial units belonging to different models are successively fed onto the conveyor, and they are moved by the conveyor to pass through the workstations to gradually generate final products. All assembling tasks are manually performed with operation times to be stochastic. An important performance measure of MMALs is overload times that refer to uncompleted operations for operators within their work zones. This paper establishes a method to analyze the expected overload times for MMALs with stochastic operation times. The operation processes of operators form discrete time nonhomogeneous Markov processes with continuous state spaces. For a given daily production schedule, the expected overload times involve in analyzing the Markov processes for finite horizon. Based on some important properties of the performance measure, we propose an efficient approach for calculating the expected overload times. Numerical computations show that the results are very satisfactory. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

驱护舰编队对潜防御性搜索态势分析与方法

针对驱护舰武器装备的发展,结合驱护舰编队海上对潜防御作战的新特点,根据特定驱护舰编队的使命任务,提出了特定驱护舰编队对潜进攻性搜索与防御性搜索的新概念,并在战斗战场范围内对特定驱护舰编队对潜防御性搜索态势进行了分析,给出了编队对潜防御性搜索方法.对部队作战与训练具有一定的参考应用价值.     

登陆作战海军水雷破障建模与应用

扫除抗登陆方水雷障碍,既是登陆作战的重要环节,也是保障三军联合破除敌抗登陆水际障碍的前提条件.根据抗登陆方水雷情况想定,研究三军联合破障中海军扫雷兵力的运用,创新性地提出了将水雷分为3种类型分别进行分析量化处理的方法,并以此建立了切合实际的海军扫雷模型.根据该模型研制的海军水雷破障辅助决策系统,可以完成已知扫雷时间、扫雷兵力和扫雷率这3个最主要扫雷参数之间的互相求解问题,为指挥员决策提供了定量的客观依据.     

一种具有优先级的MAC协议性能分析

在移动通信中,为了满足高动态终端对接入的高要求,设计了一种带有优先级的随机预约/按需分配相结合的MAC协议RRDAMA-P(random reserve/demand assignment multiple access protocol with priority),并利用Opnet软件进行了建模仿真,仿真结果表明,RRDAMA-P协议不仅可以满足终端的优先级要求,而且实现了更好的吞吐量和时延性能。     

基于数值SEA算法的反潜C3I系统效能分析

在分析了反潜C3I效能指标的基础上,采用数值SEA逼近算法求解反潜C3I使命轨迹和系统效能度量,建立了反潜C3I的SEA效能分析模型,并给出了系统效能指标灵敏度与关联度分析模型.     

舰船机械设备备件保障决策分析——可靠性分析

针对典型的舰船机械设备系统,运用故障树分析等现代可靠性理论分析方法,结合系统设备的技术性能分析、非电产品的结构和故障特点以及运行管理实际情况,研究系统设备、部件的故障机理,故障模式和故障影响效应,明确导致设备、部件故障的原因及发生模式。应用FTAS故障树分析软件包对其进行了定性、定量分析,获得了以概率结构事件、最小割集等形式表达的系统设备、部件故障对系统故障的作用模式,并对系统故障概率随时间的变化进行了拟合检验及评价了系统可靠性,为确定在指定远航任务期(90天)内所需的备品备件决策提供依据。     

大口径机枪弹性枪架稳定性分析的冲量法

大口径机枪在弹性枪架上射击稳定性的问题,是影响连发射击精度的一个重要问题,按传统方法以最大后座力或自动机后座到位的瞬间作用校核稳定性,其结果与实际射击现象不符。本文在分析大量实验现象后,提出稳定性分析计算中的冲量法,并以12.7mm 大口径机枪为例进行检验,结果与实验现象相符.