On the effectiveness of top‐down strategy for forecasting autoregressive demands

We investigate the relative effectiveness of top‐down versus bottom‐up strategies for forecasting the demand of an item that belongs to a product family. The demand for each item in the family is assumed to follow a first‐order univariate autoregressive process. Under the top‐down strategy, the aggregate demand is forecasted by using the historical data of the family demand. The demand forecast for the items is then derived by proportional allocation of the aggregate forecast. Under the bottom‐up strategy, the demand forecast for each item is directly obtained by using the historical demand data of the particular item. In both strategies, the forecasting technique used is exponential smoothing. We analytically evaluate the condition under which one forecasting strategy is preferred over the other when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand time series for all the items is identical. We show that when the lag‐1 autocorrelation is smaller than or equal to 1/3, the maximum difference in the performance of the two forecasting strategies is only 1%. However, if the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand for at least one of the items is greater than 1/3, then the bottom‐up strategy consistently outperforms the top‐down strategy, irrespective of the items' proportion in the family and the coefficient of correlation between the item demands. A simulation study reveals that the analytical findings hold even when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand processes is not identical. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

Exact expected values of variance estimators for simulation

We formulate exact expressions for the expected values of selected estimators of the variance parameter (that is, the sum of covariances at all lags) of a steady‐state simulation output process. Given in terms of the autocovariance function of the process, these expressions are derived for variance estimators based on the simulation analysis methods of nonoverlapping batch means, overlapping batch means, and standardized time series. Comparing estimator performance in a first‐order autoregressive process and the M/M/1 queue‐waiting‐time process, we find that certain standardized time series estimators outperform their competitors as the sample size becomes large. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

潜艇自航式诱饵组合使用方法

潜艇自航式诱饵组合使用方法的优劣主要评判依据是使用的方法最终使得潜艇对抗鱼雷成功的概率,对抗时间和诱骗距离是影响对抗成功概率的两个重要因素,它们又主要围绕发射时机、初始航向以及潜艇机动等几个问题展开。通过分析各个诱饵的作战使命,在一定态势下,根据诱饵的性能、鱼雷报警距离及舷角等各方面因素,建立大小口径声诱饵协同作战的弹道模型,并由此得到了诱饵发射时机、初始航向等参数。     

潜艇自航式诱饵组合使用研究

潜艇自航式诱饵组合使用方法的优劣主要评判依据是使用的方法最终使得潜艇对抗鱼雷成功的概率,对抗时间和诱骗距离是影响对抗成功概率的两个重要因素,它们又主要围绕发射时机、初始航向以及潜艇机动等几个问题展开。该文通过分析各个诱饵的作战使命,在一定态势下,根据诱饵的性能、鱼雷报警距离及舷角等各方面因素,建立大小口径声诱饵协同作战的弹道模型,并由此得到了诱饵发射时机、初始航向等参数。     

捷联惯导在线标定的时间延迟补偿方法影响分析

在捷联惯导在线标定过程中,由于主惯导的解算和传输延迟,子惯导解算信息与进行匹配的基准信息不能完全同步,有些情况下时间延迟较大,且对标定精度的影响很大。首先介绍了一种消除时间延迟的方法,而后重点仿真研究了该方法中同步误差△t对捷联惯导在线标定精度的影响,仿真结果表明忽略会△t导致个别参数轻微发散,故为了进一步提高标定精度,在标定过程中考虑同步误差△t是必要的。     

实弹射击弹着点定位算法研究

弹着点定位是实弹射击中实现自动报靶的关键。利用弹头撞击钢质靶板产生的振动波到达四个顶点上的振动传感器的时间差,来实现弹着点的定位。弹着点的位置定位算法,利用两次加权的方法,消除噪声等因素产生的误差,最后经过实验测试,分别对一次、二次加权的结果进行仿真以及数据的拟合。结果证明,该算法对弹着点的位置估计随着加权次数的增加,也会更加接近实际值。     

对剩余飞行时间估计误差不敏感的末制导改进方法

首先对传统的比例导引控制系统进行了分析,分析结果表明,传统的比例导引方法对导弹剩余飞行时间的估计依赖性强,剩余飞行时间估计误差将大大降低制导性能,甚至造成导弹脱靶.为了解决这一问题,提出了一种降低敏感度制导律,建立了该改进制导律的数学模型并进行了仿真,仿真结果表明,该制导律对剩余飞行时间误差敏感度低,并能够提高制导性能...     

The quay crane scheduling problem with time windows

The quay crane scheduling problem consists of scheduling tasks for loading and unloading containers on cranes that are assigned to a vessel for its service. This article introduces a new approach for quay crane scheduling, where the availability of cranes at a vessel is restricted to certain time windows. The problem is of practical relevance, because container terminal operators frequently redeploy cranes among vessels to speed up the service of high‐priority vessels while serving low‐priority vessels casually. This article provides a mathematical formulation of the problem and a tree‐search‐based heuristic solution method. A computational investigation on a large set of test instances is used to evaluate the performance of the heuristic and to identify the impact of differently structured crane time windows on the achievable vessel handling time. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

多核系统中基于动态松弛时间回收的节能实时调度算法

许多嵌入式实时任务的实际执行时间往往小于最坏情况执行时间,因此可以产生大量的动态松弛时间.针对时限等于周期的偶发任务集,提出一种基于动态松弛时间回收的多核系统节能实时调度算法LRE-DVFS-ALL.该算法基于最优在线调度算法LRE-TL,利用TL面内节能实时调度思想,在每个TL面的提前完成时刻实现动态松弛时间回收,降...     

基于高阶累积量的滑动加窗参数型多径时延估计

针对传统方法不适合估计多径时延和难以抑制相关高斯噪声,构造了基于高级累积量的滑动加窗参数估计模型。该模型利用高阶累积量抑制高斯噪声,应用滑动窗充分利用采集数据。通过理论分析和仿真实验表明,该方法能够准确地估计时延,有效地抑制干扰和相关噪声的影响,且在性能估计方面,优于传统基于相关的方法。