舰空导弹射击模型优化分析

针对不同情况来袭的反舰导弹,运用系统分析的方法尝试在一定的条件下解决舰空导弹优化射击问题。通过分析,确立了在所假定的情况下选择各自不同的射击方法可以获得最大的抗击效果,从而提高作战的效费比。文中所确立的射击模型有一定的合理性和可行性,在射击方法恰当的情况下,舰空导弹武器系统的战斗可靠性对舰空导弹武器系统的射击效果起着重要作用。     

A produce‐to‐stock system with advance demand information and secondary customers

We consider a manufacturer (i.e., a capacitated supplier) that produces to stock and has two classes of customers. The primary customer places orders at regular intervals of time for a random quantity, while the secondary customers request a single item at random times. At a predetermined time the manufacturer receives advance demand information regarding the order size of the primary customer. If the manufacturer is not able to fill the primary customer's demand, there is a penalty. On the other hand, serving the secondary customers results in additional profit; however, the manufacturer can refuse to serve the secondary customers in order to reserve inventory for the primary customer. We characterize the manufacturer's optimal production and stock reservation policies that maximize the manufacturer's discounted profit and the average profit per unit time. We show that these policies are threshold‐type policies, and these thresholds are monotone with respect to the primary customer's order size. Using a numerical study we provide insights into how the value of information is affected by the relative demand size of the primary and secondary customers. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Dynamic lot‐sizing model with production time windows

We consider a dynamic lot‐sizing model with production time windows where each of n demands has earliest and latest production due dates and it must be satisfied during the given time window. For the case of nonspeculative cost structure, an O(nlogn) time procedure is developed and it is shown to run in O(n) when demands come in the order of latest production due dates. When the cost structure is somewhat general fixed plus linear that allows speculative motive, an optimal procedure with O(T⁴) is proposed where T is the length of a planning horizon. Finally, for the most general concave production cost structure, an optimal procedure with O(T⁵) is designed. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

On the effectiveness of top‐down strategy for forecasting autoregressive demands

We investigate the relative effectiveness of top‐down versus bottom‐up strategies for forecasting the demand of an item that belongs to a product family. The demand for each item in the family is assumed to follow a first‐order univariate autoregressive process. Under the top‐down strategy, the aggregate demand is forecasted by using the historical data of the family demand. The demand forecast for the items is then derived by proportional allocation of the aggregate forecast. Under the bottom‐up strategy, the demand forecast for each item is directly obtained by using the historical demand data of the particular item. In both strategies, the forecasting technique used is exponential smoothing. We analytically evaluate the condition under which one forecasting strategy is preferred over the other when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand time series for all the items is identical. We show that when the lag‐1 autocorrelation is smaller than or equal to 1/3, the maximum difference in the performance of the two forecasting strategies is only 1%. However, if the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand for at least one of the items is greater than 1/3, then the bottom‐up strategy consistently outperforms the top‐down strategy, irrespective of the items' proportion in the family and the coefficient of correlation between the item demands. A simulation study reveals that the analytical findings hold even when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand processes is not identical. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

Exact expected values of variance estimators for simulation

We formulate exact expressions for the expected values of selected estimators of the variance parameter (that is, the sum of covariances at all lags) of a steady‐state simulation output process. Given in terms of the autocovariance function of the process, these expressions are derived for variance estimators based on the simulation analysis methods of nonoverlapping batch means, overlapping batch means, and standardized time series. Comparing estimator performance in a first‐order autoregressive process and the M/M/1 queue‐waiting‐time process, we find that certain standardized time series estimators outperform their competitors as the sample size becomes large. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

潜艇自航式诱饵组合使用方法

潜艇自航式诱饵组合使用方法的优劣主要评判依据是使用的方法最终使得潜艇对抗鱼雷成功的概率,对抗时间和诱骗距离是影响对抗成功概率的两个重要因素,它们又主要围绕发射时机、初始航向以及潜艇机动等几个问题展开。通过分析各个诱饵的作战使命,在一定态势下,根据诱饵的性能、鱼雷报警距离及舷角等各方面因素,建立大小口径声诱饵协同作战的弹道模型,并由此得到了诱饵发射时机、初始航向等参数。     

Pakistan’s nuclear weapons: how safe is safe enough? Transparency versus opacity

Due to expanding and increasing religious extremism and terrorism coupled with political instability in Pakistan, most western observers believe that Pakistan's nuclear weapons are not secure and could be taken over by terrorists. This would have adverse implications for the region and for global peace, especially for the security of USA and Europe. This article argues that this perception is based on a flawed understanding and knowledge of how Pakistan's command and control setup has evolved and operates. Pakistan's nuclear weapons are as safe as any other state's nuclear weapons. Pakistan has also been active in supporting and participating in global efforts to improve nuclear safety and security. Over the years, Pakistan has been quite open in sharing information regarding how it is improving its command and control system with western governments as well as scholars. This article argues that the steps Pakistan has taken to secure its nuclear weapons are adequate and that Pakistan would continue to further strengthen these measures; however, it is the expanding religious extremism, terrorism and anti-Americanism in the country which make the international perception of Pakistan extremely negative and then seep into the perception of Pakistan's nuclear weapons safety and security.     

潜艇自航式诱饵组合使用研究

潜艇自航式诱饵组合使用方法的优劣主要评判依据是使用的方法最终使得潜艇对抗鱼雷成功的概率,对抗时间和诱骗距离是影响对抗成功概率的两个重要因素,它们又主要围绕发射时机、初始航向以及潜艇机动等几个问题展开。该文通过分析各个诱饵的作战使命,在一定态势下,根据诱饵的性能、鱼雷报警距离及舷角等各方面因素,建立大小口径声诱饵协同作战的弹道模型,并由此得到了诱饵发射时机、初始航向等参数。     

相对静止气氛下硼颗粒着火过程

针对相对静止气氛下单颗粒硼的着火过程展开了系统研究,考虑硼颗粒周围径向气相流动以及硼颗粒与周围环境间的传热和传质过程,建立了一维硼颗粒着火模型。分析了硼颗粒在实现着火和未能实现着火两种典型情形下的颗粒相、气相组分参数以及颗粒外表面上Stefan流的变化规律,并对其成因展开了分析。研究表明,在实现着火和未能实现着火两种典型情形下,硼颗粒外表面的Stefan流都会经历先由周围空间流向颗粒表面,而后变为由颗粒表面流向周围空间的过程;考虑颗粒外表面处气相Stefan流作用后,硼颗粒的着火延迟时间减少,且压力越大,影响越大。     

捷联惯导在线标定的时间延迟补偿方法影响分析

在捷联惯导在线标定过程中,由于主惯导的解算和传输延迟,子惯导解算信息与进行匹配的基准信息不能完全同步,有些情况下时间延迟较大,且对标定精度的影响很大。首先介绍了一种消除时间延迟的方法,而后重点仿真研究了该方法中同步误差△t对捷联惯导在线标定精度的影响,仿真结果表明忽略会△t导致个别参数轻微发散,故为了进一步提高标定精度,在标定过程中考虑同步误差△t是必要的。