一种实时对中监测装置原理及误差分析研究

设计出了一种可实现实时对中监测的装置。该装置可以在静态和设备运行时进行对中状态监测,还可对设备或轴系引起的对中状态改变量进行测量。介绍了该装置的结构原理,并对其结构误差进行了讨论,结果表明,该装置的误差很小,可以很好满足工程需要。同时,还对该装置的装配误差进行了分析。     

舰空导弹射击模型优化分析

针对不同情况来袭的反舰导弹,运用系统分析的方法尝试在一定的条件下解决舰空导弹优化射击问题。通过分析,确立了在所假定的情况下选择各自不同的射击方法可以获得最大的抗击效果,从而提高作战的效费比。文中所确立的射击模型有一定的合理性和可行性,在射击方法恰当的情况下,舰空导弹武器系统的战斗可靠性对舰空导弹武器系统的射击效果起着重要作用。     

Hilbert谱分析和平稳度

提出了本征模式函数IMF成员相应的幅度及频率时间函数的计算方法。由函数的Hilbert谱可获得相关的边缘谱,边缘谱确定了几乎连续的能量分布,从而提供了通过每个频率值测量总能量的方法。根据能量-频率-时间分布,就可以定量确定平稳性,平稳性是物理过程的一个复杂属性,其由平稳度DS和统计平稳度DSS进行度量,同时给出了DS和DSS的计算公式。     

基于半实物仿真的HLA／RTI关键技术研究

分析了基于HLA/RTI的半实物仿真中实践管理、数据收集能力、RTI通用性以及网络传输安全等问题,研究了新的时间管理策略,提出了合理设置lookahead的算法,设计了数据收集的层次框架,并制定了研发RTI的通用原则和安全有效的网络传输方案,为现代半实物系统仿真提供了理论借鉴。     

电子时间引信解除保险距离试验研究

通过测量弹丸炮口速度和引信解除保险时间的方法得出电子时间引信远解距离。在介绍某型电子时间引信实现远距离解除保险的方法和机构工作过程的同时,对远解距离进行理论分析,并对试验引信改装的实现方法作了详细说明。在此基础上,进行了电子时间引信解除保险距离测试试验并对试验结果作了分析。     

Dynamic lot‐sizing model with production time windows

We consider a dynamic lot‐sizing model with production time windows where each of n demands has earliest and latest production due dates and it must be satisfied during the given time window. For the case of nonspeculative cost structure, an O(nlogn) time procedure is developed and it is shown to run in O(n) when demands come in the order of latest production due dates. When the cost structure is somewhat general fixed plus linear that allows speculative motive, an optimal procedure with O(T⁴) is proposed where T is the length of a planning horizon. Finally, for the most general concave production cost structure, an optimal procedure with O(T⁵) is designed. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Exact expected values of variance estimators for simulation

We formulate exact expressions for the expected values of selected estimators of the variance parameter (that is, the sum of covariances at all lags) of a steady‐state simulation output process. Given in terms of the autocovariance function of the process, these expressions are derived for variance estimators based on the simulation analysis methods of nonoverlapping batch means, overlapping batch means, and standardized time series. Comparing estimator performance in a first‐order autoregressive process and the M/M/1 queue‐waiting‐time process, we find that certain standardized time series estimators outperform their competitors as the sample size becomes large. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

A produce‐to‐stock system with advance demand information and secondary customers

We consider a manufacturer (i.e., a capacitated supplier) that produces to stock and has two classes of customers. The primary customer places orders at regular intervals of time for a random quantity, while the secondary customers request a single item at random times. At a predetermined time the manufacturer receives advance demand information regarding the order size of the primary customer. If the manufacturer is not able to fill the primary customer's demand, there is a penalty. On the other hand, serving the secondary customers results in additional profit; however, the manufacturer can refuse to serve the secondary customers in order to reserve inventory for the primary customer. We characterize the manufacturer's optimal production and stock reservation policies that maximize the manufacturer's discounted profit and the average profit per unit time. We show that these policies are threshold‐type policies, and these thresholds are monotone with respect to the primary customer's order size. Using a numerical study we provide insights into how the value of information is affected by the relative demand size of the primary and secondary customers. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

On the effectiveness of top‐down strategy for forecasting autoregressive demands

We investigate the relative effectiveness of top‐down versus bottom‐up strategies for forecasting the demand of an item that belongs to a product family. The demand for each item in the family is assumed to follow a first‐order univariate autoregressive process. Under the top‐down strategy, the aggregate demand is forecasted by using the historical data of the family demand. The demand forecast for the items is then derived by proportional allocation of the aggregate forecast. Under the bottom‐up strategy, the demand forecast for each item is directly obtained by using the historical demand data of the particular item. In both strategies, the forecasting technique used is exponential smoothing. We analytically evaluate the condition under which one forecasting strategy is preferred over the other when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand time series for all the items is identical. We show that when the lag‐1 autocorrelation is smaller than or equal to 1/3, the maximum difference in the performance of the two forecasting strategies is only 1%. However, if the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand for at least one of the items is greater than 1/3, then the bottom‐up strategy consistently outperforms the top‐down strategy, irrespective of the items' proportion in the family and the coefficient of correlation between the item demands. A simulation study reveals that the analytical findings hold even when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand processes is not identical. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.