The continuing resonance of the war as risk management perspective for understanding military interventions

In the late 1990s and 2000s, a slew of books and journal articles proposed that a nexus between risk management and warfare was emerging. This article argues that risk management ideas continue to shape recent campaigns against Libya, Islamic State, Syria, and the war on terror from Niger, Yemen to Somalia. It uses existing literature on risk and warfare to examine four key aspects of contemporary interventions. First, the article evaluates the overall strategic context as security concerns shift from terrorism toward renewed great power competition. Second, it re-assesses the risk calculus for military action through the language and grammar of risk invoked by politicians. Third and fourth, it addresses the continuing reliance on air power and the managerial ethos of military operations as important features of war as risk management.     

平方根Spherical Simplex UKF在飞船姿态估计中的应用

提出了一种用矢量观测来估计飞船姿态的平方根spherical simplex unscented卡尔曼滤波算法。该算法将spherical simplex unscented变换与unscented卡尔曼滤波结合起来,与采用scaled unscented变换的unscented卡尔曼滤波相比,具有更低的计算量。其平方根形式由于协方差阵的半正定性,拥有更好的数值稳定性。飞船的姿态运动学描述采用了四元数,而用广义罗德里格斯参数来克服卡尔曼滤波过程中的四元数归一化误差。仿真结果表明,该算法比标准扩展卡尔曼滤波具有更低的姿态估计误差及更快的收敛率。     

一种面向混合数据集可视化的高效数据转换技术

应用领域中存在大量多数据类型属性的混合数据集,但是,很多有效多变元可视化方法的适用范围都只局限于单一类型,对于混合数据集可视化效果不甚理想。针对包含数值及分类型属性的多元混合数据集,提出一种面向混合数据集可视化的数据转换技术,首先对每一数值型属性使用聚类技术进行分类化,然后应用对应分析算法量化所有分类型属性,最后将转换后的混合数据集使用经典的数值型可视化方法——星形坐标法进行展现,并且针对变元数量较多或分类型变元势较高的混合数据集,在数据转换过程中提出一套降势策略,减少参与计算的变元数量,提高计算效率。实验表明,该方法对混合数据集的可视化结果不仅易于理解,而且有利于用户发现其中的隐性知识,降势策略在提高内存及时间效率方面作用显著。     

作战仿真数据集成框架研究及实现

作战仿真数据的集成与整合是我军数据工程建设项目的重要内容.以ETL及消息中间件(MOM)技术为基础,设计了一种基于消息中间件的抽取、转换、传输与加载(ETTL)的作战仿真数据集成框架.分析了系统结构模型及各模块相互关系,提出了一个可行的数据集成解决方案.介绍了一个分布式数据集成系统平台的设计与实现,并结合一个数据集成实例详细阐述了该系统在我军军事演习中的应用.     

中国走向现代化的文化转型

中国传统文化模式严重地制约着我国现代化的进程。只有通过深刻的文化启蒙,直接从普通民众安身立命的自在的文化根基入手,进行改造、批判和重建,才能实现我国传统文化的彻底转型。     

基于Butterworth分布的跳频信号参数估计

能够有效地估计接收到的跳频信号参数是干扰跳频通信的关键。针对接收到的未知任何先验参数的跳频信号,提出了一种基于Butterworth分布的跳频信号参数估计算法。由于Butterworth分布具有较好的时频聚集性和抑制交叉项性能,该算法能够在低信噪比条件下有效提取并估计出跳频信号的跳频周期、跳变时刻和跳频频率。仿真结果证明了该算法对跳频信号参数估计的有效性。     

贯彻十七大精神,加速推进学院教育转型

军队学历教育院校深入贯彻十七大精神,落实军委、总部人才培养要求的一个重要方面,就是要加速推进教育转型。阐述了学历教育院校教育转型的必然性,挖掘了教育转型的内涵,提出了相应对策,对当前应重点解决的问题进行了初步探讨。     

任职教育背景下推进教育教学转型的思考

推进院校教育教学转型是新形势下新的课题,也是一项复杂的系统工程。到底“怎么转”、“转什么”,是关系院校建设发展一个重大而现实的课题。从确立转型理念、把握转型规律、聚合转型力量三个方面进行了探析和阐述,力求为推进转型发展提供借鉴与参考。     

Does Health Spending Crowd out Defense in the United States? Evidence from Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the association between defense and health spending using multi-resolution analysis incorporating the structural change model. Our empirical results suggested that a negative correlation between defense and health spending persists over the entire period of 1941–2013 in the very long-run (over 16 years cycle), but there is a change in correlation between defense and health spending in the short-run (2–4 years cycle), medium-run (4–8 years cycle), and long-run (8–16 years cycle) during the same period. In particular, there appears to have been a trade-off relationship between defense and health spending during the ex-Korean War period, but there was a complementary relationship between defense and health spending during the post-Korean War period. The crowding-out effect of health spending on defense spending during the period when the Affordable Care Act was put into effect relies on the strength of the positive correlation in the long-run (8–16 years cycle) and negative correlation in the short-run (2–4 years cycle) and very long-run (over 16 years cycle).     

舰船维修Hedonic价格指数模型的构建

针对舰船维修具有的异质性特点导致“纯样本匹配法”并不适用于舰船维修价格指数编制的问题,首先提出采用特征价格理论,选取舰船维修特征属性并给出了量化处理原则;然后,利用合并数据特征价格建模方法,建立了舰船维修线性Hedonic价格指数模型,并针对线性模型拟合精度不高等问题,通过多种形式的Box-Cox转换,构建了舰船维修的非线性Hedonic价格指数模型,得出了舰船维修Hedonic价格指数,以反映舰船维修的“纯价格变化”趋势.最后,与通过“纯样本匹配法”获取的价格指数进行比较,并解释了二者的差异性.