Two‐stage component test plans for testing the reliability of a series system

A system reliability is often evaluated by individual tests of components that constitute the system. These component test plans have advantages over complete system based tests in terms of time and cost. In this paper, we consider the series system with n components, where the lifetime of the i‐th component follows exponential distribution with parameter λ_i. Assuming test costs for the components are different, we develop an efficient algorithm to design a two‐stage component test plan that satisfies the usual probability requirements on the system reliability and in addition minimizes the maximum expected cost. For the case of prior information in the form of upper bounds on λ_i's, we use the genetic algorithm to solve the associated optimization problems which are otherwise difficult to solve using mathematical programming techniques. The two‐stage component test plans are cost effective compared to single‐stage plans developed by Rajgopal and Mazumdar. We demonstrate through several numerical examples that our approach has the potential to reduce the overall testing costs significantly. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 49: 95–116, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.1051     

一种面向复杂系统的模糊可靠性分配方法

针对系统研制初期的不确定的约束条件与设计目标 ,进行了复杂系统模糊可靠性分配建模 ;结合遗传算法理论 ,考虑了一般系统的求解 ;实例分析验证了所提出方法的性能和可行性 .     

蒸汽动力装置分布式控制系统可靠性设计准则

讨论了为保证蒸汽动力装置分布式控制系统的可靠性所采取的一般技术 ,详细分析了提高蒸汽动力装置分布式控制系统可靠性的一般设计准则 ,包括系统设计的一般要求、计算机的选型、元器件的选择与使用以及抗干扰措施     

Network reliability assessment in a random environment

In this paper we consider networks that consist of components operating under a randomly changing common environment. Our work is motivated by power system networks that are subject to fluctuating weather conditions over time that affect the performance of the network. We develop a general setup for any network that is subject to such environment and present results for network reliability assessment under two repair scenarios. We also present Bayesian analysis of network failure data and illustrate how reliability predictions can be obtained for the network. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 574–591, 2003     

Threshold optimization for weighted voting classifiers

Weighted voting classifiers considered in this paper consist of N units each providing individual classification decisions. The entire system output is based on tallying the weighted votes for each decision and choosing the one which has total support weight exceeding a certain threshold. Each individual unit may abstain from voting. The entire system may also abstain from voting if no decision support weight exceeds the threshold. Existing methods of evaluating the reliability of weighted voting systems can be applied to limited special cases of these systems and impose some restrictions on their parameters. In this paper a universal generating function method is suggested which allows the reliability of weighted voting classifiers to be exactly evaluated without imposing constraints on unit weights. Based on this method, the classifier reliability is determined as a function of a threshold factor, and a procedure is suggested for finding the threshold which minimizes the cost of damage caused by classifier failures (misclassification and abstention may have different price.) Dynamic and static threshold voting rules are considered and compared. A method of analyzing the influence of units' availability on the entire classifier reliability is suggested, and illustrative examples are presented. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 322–344, 2003.     

马尔可夫链的模块化软件可靠性研究

针对模块化软件系统,考虑到模块自身的可靠性和模块相互转移调用对其系统重要度的影响.利用马尔可夫预测的基本原理,将马尔可夫链引入到模块化软件可靠性模型建立中,通过建立转移概率矩阵,对软件系统的可靠性进行分析并建立可靠性模型.该模型利用从软件开发过程中收集出的可靠性数据,对模块化软件进行可靠性分析,以此来研究软件系统总体的可靠性.     

多退化模式下的电子装备可靠性建模

通常加速退化分析中退化失效只考虑或者假设只有一个退化通道,而实际上很多情况下会存在多退化模式.产品的各个退化通道间的关系存在随机性,即任意两个退化通道间不可能只是单一的相关或者独立.在考虑这种相关性的条件下,深入研究了电子产品的性能退化理论和机理,提出了两个多退化模式竞争失效的数学模型,分别阐述了退化通道相关与独立的两种不同情况下产品可靠度评估方法.     

弹药储存可靠性设计对策研究

从我军弹药储存可靠性设计现状出发,在深入分析某型弹药失效机理基础上,总结出了我军弹药产品储存性方面存在的质量问题;提出了弹药全系统相容的研究理念和储存性设计中的复合防护设计概念,并对如何提高弹药储存性能提出了建议。     

The logistic–exponential survival distribution

For various parameter combinations, the logistic–exponential survival distribution belongs to four common classes of survival distributions: increasing failure rate, decreasing failure rate, bathtub‐shaped failure rate, and upside‐down bathtub‐shaped failure rate. Graphical comparison of this new distribution with other common survival distributions is seen in a plot of the skewness versus the coefficient of variation. The distribution can be used as a survival model or as a device to determine the distribution class from which a particular data set is drawn. As the three‐parameter version is less mathematically tractable, our major results concern the two‐parameter version. Boundaries for the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters are derived in this article. Also, a fixed‐point method to find the maximum likelihood estimators for complete and censored data sets has been developed. The two‐parameter and the three‐parameter versions of the logistic–exponential distribution are applied to two real‐life data sets. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Replacing nonidentical vital components to extend system life

We consider a system that depends on a single vital component. If this component fails, the system life will terminate. If the component is replaced before its failure then the system life may be extended; however, there are only a finite number of spare components. In addition, the lifetimes of these spare components are not necessarily identically distributed. We propose a model for scheduling component replacements so as to maximize the expected system survival. We find the counterintuitive result that when comparing components' general lifetime distributions based on stochastic orderings, not even the strongest ordering provides an a priori guarantee of the optimal sequencing of components. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008