基于备件需求预测的两步法理论

在对备件需求时间序列研究的基础上,结合指数平滑法和Croston法的特点,分析了指数平滑法与两步法的原理,通过对指数平滑法和两步法方差的研究,得到两步法是指数平滑法的一般形式的结论,为两步法的进一步研究提供一定的理论支撑。     

Determination of burn‐in parameters and residual life for highly reliable products

Today, many products are designed and manufactured to function for a long period of time before they fail. Determining product reliability is a great challenge to manufacturers of highly reliable products with only a relatively short period of time available for internal life testing. In particular, it may be difficult to determine optimal burn‐in parameters and characterize the residual life distribution. A promising alternative is to use data on a quality characteristic (QC) whose degradation over time can be related to product failure. Typically, product failure corresponds to the first passage time of the degradation path beyond a critical value. If degradation paths can be modeled properly, one can predict failure time and determine the life distribution without actually observing failures. In this paper, we first use a Wiener process to describe the continuous degradation path of the quality characteristic of the product. A Wiener process allows nonconstant variance and nonzero correlation among data collected at different time points. We propose a decision rule for classifying a unit as normal or weak, and give an economic model for determining the optimal termination time and other parameters of a burn‐in test. Next, we propose a method for assessing the product's lifetime distribution of the passed units. The proposed methodologies are all based only on the product's initial observed degradation data. Finally, an example of an electronic product, namely contact image scanner (CIS), is used to illustrate the proposed procedure. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

A general model of heterogeneous system lifetimes and conditions for system burn‐in

Burn‐in is a technique to enhance reliability by eliminating weak items from a population of items having heterogeneous lifetimes. System burn‐in can improve system reliability, but the conditions for system burn‐in to be performed after component burn‐in remain a little understood mathematical challenge. To derive such conditions, we first introduce a general model of heterogeneous system lifetimes, in which the component burn‐in information and assembly problems are related to the prediction of system burn‐in. Many existing system burn‐in models become special cases and two important results are identified. First, heterogeneous system lifetimes can be understood naturally as a consequence of heterogeneous component lifetimes and heterogeneous assembly quality. Second, system burn‐in is effective if assembly quality variation in the components and connections which are arranged in series is greater than a threshold, where the threshold depends on the system structure and component failure rates. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 364–380, 2003.     

提高理工科学生听力水平的探讨

本文紧紧围绕目前理工科学生实际听力水平状况,详细分析了影响理工科学生听力水平提高的两大制约因素,即语言因素和心理因素;讨论了语言教师针对这两大因素如何加强听力教学;最后根据全国四、六级英语统考题型,提出了听力测试中的有关技巧。     

An exact analysis of a joint production‐inventory problem in two‐echelon inventory systems

We consider a two‐echelon inventory system with a manufacturer operating from a warehouse supplying multiple distribution centers (DCs) that satisfy the demand originating from multiple sources. The manufacturer has a finite production capacity and production times are stochastic. Demand from each source follows an independent Poisson process. We assume that the transportation times between the warehouse and DCs may be positive which may require keeping inventory at both the warehouse and DCs. Inventory in both echelons is managed using the base‐stock policy. Each demand source can procure the product from one or more DCs, each incurring a different fulfilment cost. The objective is to determine the optimal base‐stock levels at the warehouse and DCs as well as the assignment of the demand sources to the DCs so that the sum of inventory holding, backlog, and transportation costs is minimized. We obtain a simple equation for finding the optimal base‐stock level at each DC and an upper bound for the optimal base‐stock level at the warehouse. We demonstrate several managerial insights including that the demand from each source is optimally fulfilled entirely from a single distribution center, and as the system's utilization approaches 1, the optimal base‐stock level increases in the transportation time at a rate equal to the demand rate arriving at the DC. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Approximation methods for the analysis of a multicomponent,multiproduct assemble‐to‐order system

In this article, we consider the performance evaluation of a multicomponent, multiproduct assemble‐to‐order (ATO) system. Each component is managed independently using a base‐stock policy at a supply facility with limited production capacity and an infinite buffer. The arrivals of demands follow a multivariate Poisson process and unfilled demands are backlogged. Because exact analysis of the proposed system is not feasible, we propose two approximation methods which provide upper and lower bounds for various performance measures such as fill rate, average waiting time, and average number of backorders of the proposed system. Our computational experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the two approximation methods under various system settings. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Multi‐period maintenance scheduling of tree networks with minimum flow disruption

We introduce a multi‐period tree network maintenance scheduling model and investigate the effect of maintenance capacity restrictions on traffic/information flow interruptions. Network maintenance refers to activities that are performed to keep a network operational. For linear networks with uniform flow between every pair of nodes, we devise a polynomial‐time combinatorial algorithm that minimizes flow disruption. The spiral structure of the optimal maintenance schedule sheds insights into general network maintenance scheduling. The maintenance problem on linear networks with a general flow structure is strongly NP‐hard. We formulate this problem as a linear integer program, derive strong valid inequalities, and conduct a polyhedral study of the formulation. Polyhedral analysis shows that the relaxation of our linear network formulation is tight when capacities and flows are uniform. The linear network formulation is then extended to an integer program for solving the tree network maintenance scheduling problem. Preliminary computations indicate that the strengthened formulations can solve reasonably sized problems on tree networks and that the intuitions gained from the uniform flow case continue to hold in general settings. Finally, we extend the approach to directed networks and to maintenance of network nodes. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Cyclic scheduling in robotic flowshops with bounded work‐in‐process levels

This study addresses cyclic scheduling in robotic flowshops with bounded work‐in‐process (WIP) levels. The objective is to minimize the cycle time or, equivalently, to maximize the throughput, under the condition that the WIP level is bounded from above by a given integer number. We present several strongly polynomial algorithms for the 2‐cyclic robotic flowshop scheduling problems for various WIP levels. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 58: 1–16, 2011     

The impact of component commonality on composite assembly policies

Assemble in Advance (AIA) policy reduces assembly cost due to advance planning, while Assemble to Order (ATO) policy eliminates assembly of excessive (more than demanded) units. The tradeoffs between the two policies have been studied in the past for single product environments. Moreover, it was shown that it is beneficial to employ AIA and ATO simultaneously. In this article, we study the employment of such a composite assembly policy in a multiproduct environment with component commonality. When common components are used, ATO may also enable us to benefit from the risk pooling effect. We provide important managerial insights such as: the multiperiod problem is myopic and changes in inventory levels due to the use of common components, and demonstrate the potential profit increase compared to other policies.© 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Optimal burn‐in procedure for periodically inspected systems

Burn‐in is a widely used method to improve the quality of products or systems after they have been produced. In this paper, we study burn‐in procedure for a system that is maintained under periodic inspection and perfect repair policy. Assuming that the underlying lifetime distribution of a system has an initially decreasing and/or eventually increasing failure rate function, we derive upper and lower bounds for the optimal burn‐in time, which maximizes the system availability. Furthermore, adopting an age replacement policy, we derive upper and lower bounds for the optimal age parameter of the replacement policy for each fixed burn‐in time and a uniform upper bound for the optimal burn‐in time given the age replacement policy. These results can be used to reduce the numerical work for determining both optimal burn‐in time and optimal replacement policy. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007