A spatial rank‐based multivariate EWMA control chart

Nonparametric control charts are useful in statistical process control when there is a lack of or limited knowledge about the underlying process distribution, especially when the process measurement is multivariate. This article develops a new multivariate self‐starting methodology for monitoring location parameters. It is based on adapting the multivariate spatial rank to on‐line sequential monitoring. The weighted version of the rank‐based test is used to formulate the charting statistic by incorporating the exponentially weighted moving average control scheme. It is robust to non‐normally distributed data, easy to construct, fast to compute and also very efficient in detecting multivariate process shifts, especially small or moderate shifts which occur when the process distribution is heavy‐tailed or skewed. As it avoids the need for a lengthy data‐gathering step before charting and it does not require knowledge of the underlying distribution, the proposed control chart is particularly useful in start‐up or short‐run situations. A real‐data example from white wine production processes shows that it performs quite well. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 59: 91–110, 2012     

Optimal pricing for a short life‐cycle product when customer price‐sensitivity varies over time

Technology products often experience a life‐cycle demand pattern that resembles a diffusion process, with weak demand in the beginning and the end of the life cycle and high demand intensity in between. The customer price‐sensitivity also changes over the life cycle of the product. We study the prespecified pricing decision for a product that exhibits such demand characteristics. In particular, we determine the optimal set of discrete prices and the times to switch from one price to another, when a limited number of price changes are allowed. Our study shows that the optimal prices and switching times show interesting patterns that depend on the product's demand pattern and the change in the customers' price sensitivity over the life cycle of the product. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

The Chinese and Asian impact on Russian nuclear policy

Asia, where nuclear powers already interact (including North Korea), exerts a growing influence on the thinking and policy underlying Russia's current and future nuclear (and overall defense) posture. China's rise is forcing Russia into a greater reliance on strategic offensive weapons and tactical nuclear weapons. These in turn will reinforce its opposition to US missile defenses, not only in Europe but also in Asia. Russia must now entertain the possibility of nuclear use in regional conflicts that would otherwise remain purely conventional. It cannot be postulated blindly that nuclear weapons serve no discernible purpose other than to deter nuclear attacks by other nuclear powers. The strategic equation in Asia and in the Russian Far East convincingly demonstrates the falsity of this approach. Nuclear weapons will be the essential component of Russia's regional defense policy if not of its overall policies – and this also includes contingencies in Europe.     

Are non‐lethal weapons a viable military option to strengthen the hearts and minds approach in Afghanistan?

Commanders of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) have repeatedly stressed the hearts and minds approach in Afghanistan, in saying that the human terrain is decisive for a successful outcome of the mission. Avoidance of civilian casualties is considered of strategic importance, and by nature highly dependent on the management of tactical level Escalation of Force (EoF) situations. Non‐lethal weapons (NLWs) are expected to enable tactical commanders to avoid innocent civilian casualties in such situations. This article considers a selected NLW on its potential to accomplish this requirement. It uses a defence technology assessment approach to analyse EoF situations experienced by Dutch ISAF forces in which the NLW is inserted. The analysis demonstrates that a range of contextual factors in the Afghanistan high‐risk environment tend to narrow down the window of opportunity for the NLW to help defuse the risk of unintended civil casualties.     

基于变异离散粒子群的协同空战攻击决策算法

为了提高智能协同空战攻击决策算法性能,将变异策略引入到DPSO(Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization)协同空战攻击决策算法中,提出了一种新的基于变异离散粒子群(Mutation Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization,MDPSO)的协同空战攻击决策算法。基于典型空战想定背景,仿真验证了算法的有效性。采用对比实验方法,基于准确性、可靠性和快速性等关键性能指标,分析比较了基于MDPSO协同空战攻击决策算法与多种智能决策算法,验证了基于MDPSO的协同空战攻击决策算法有着较好的综合性能。     

水下潜器自导搜索策略仿真平台设计与应用

根据研究实际需求,本文基于作战能力评估理论对水下潜器自导搜索策略仿真平台进行了开发设计,并结合建立的多指标评估体系和相应的评估方法,借助均匀设计法,将其成功应用于水下潜器自导搜索策略的设计优化中。文中首先分析了仿真平台的系统需求,进而确定了其总体构架,并针对自导搜索策略研究的特点确定了相应的人机交互界面。最后给出了进行自导搜索策略仿真优化的基本思路和方法,并通过水下潜器最优自导搜索策略方案仿真研究的实例表明,本文设计的仿真平台和研究方法不仅完全能够满足水下潜器的自导搜索策略仿真研究需求,还能有效节省科研成本,具有重要的工程应用价值。     

优化多星协同观测的改进广义模式搜索算法

多星协同观测可以最大化卫星的整体效能,如何对多星进行部署是一个设计空间大、设计变量多的优化问题.对此,提出了基于Kriging模型的改进广义模式搜索算法.在算法的搜索步,通过代理模型最优和最大期望提高在当前网格内进行选点,避免选择的盲目性;在筛选步,利用代理模型预测筛选集中各点提高的比例并排序,减少不必要的仿真分析.最后,采用该算法对多星部署方案进行优化,通过对比发现,算法性能优于STK-Analyzer,证明了算法的可行性和有效性.     

升降法数据的可靠性评定

针对目前升降法数据可靠性评定方法的不足,在火工品可靠性评定模型基础上,重点探讨了用正态容许限法对升降法数据进行可靠性评定的方法。     

Waiting time analysis for a queueing system with time‐limited service and exponential timer

We consider a single‐queue with exhaustive or gated time‐limited services and server vacations, in which the length of each service period at the queue is controlled by a timer, i.e., the server serves customers until the timer expires or the queue becomes empty, whichever occurs first, and then takes vacations. The customer whose service is interrupted due to the timer expiration may be attended according to nonpreemptive or preemptive service disciplines. For the M/G/1 exhaustive/gated time‐limited service queueing system with an exponential timer and four typical preemptive/nonpreemptive service disciplines, we derive the Laplace—Stieltjes transforms and the moment formulas for waiting times and sojourn times through a unified approach, and provide some new results for these time‐limited service disciplines. © John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 638–651, 2001.     

Many‐player rendezvous search: Stick together or split and meet?

Rendezvous search finds the strategies that players should use in order to find one another when they are separated in a region. Previous papers have concentrated on the case where there are two players searching for one another. This paper looks at the problem when there are more than two players and concentrates on what they should do if some but not all of them meet together. It looks at two strategies—the stick together one and the split up and meet again one. This paper shows that the former is optimal among the class of strategies which require no memory and are stationary, and it gives a method of calculating the expected rendezvous time under it. However, simulation results comparing both strategies suggest that in most situations the split up and meet again strategy which requires some memory leads to faster expected rendezvous times. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:710–721, 2001