Estimating distribution functions from partially observed samples

Suppose that some components are initially operated in a certain condition and then switched to operating in a different condition. Working hours of the components in condition 1 and condition 2 are respectively observed. Of interest is the lifetime distribution F of the component in the second condition only, i.e., the distribution without the prior exposure to the first condition. In this paper, we propose a method to transform the lifetime obtained in condition 1 to an equivalent lifetime in condition 2 and then use the transformed data to estimate F. Both parametric and nonparametric approaches each with complete and censored data are discussed. Numerical studies are presented to investigate the performance of the method. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 521–530, 2000     

一类对固定目标的集群搜寻对策问题及求解

利用集群搜索对策的理论与方法 ,建立了集群对固定目标的一类搜索对策模型 ,给出了集群的ε -最优搜寻策略 ,并考虑了其在搜索过程中的应用     

Selecting review periods for a coordinated multi‐item inventory model with staggered deliveries

Consider an N‐item, periodic review, infinite‐horizon, undiscounted, inventory model with stochastic demands, proportional holding and shortage costs, and full backlogging. For 1 ≤ j ≤ N, orders for item j can arrive in every period, and the cost of receiving them is negligible (as in a JIT setting). Every T_j periods, one reviews the current stock level of item j and decides on deliveries for each of the next T_j periods, thus incurring an item‐by‐item fixed cost k_j. There is also a joint fixed cost whenever any item is reviewed. The problem is to find review periods T₁, T₂, …, T_N and an ordering policy satisfying the average cost criterion. The current article builds on earlier results for the single‐item case. We prove an optimal policy exists, give conditions where it has a simple form, and develop a branch and bound algorithm for its computation. We also provide two heuristic policies with O(N) computational requirements. Computational experiments indicate that the branch and bound algorithm can handle normal demand problems with N ≤ 10 and that both heuristics do well for a wide variety of problems with N ranging from 2 to 200; moreover, the performance of our heuristics seems insensitive to N. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:430–449, 2001     

Sequential and systematic sampling plans for the Markov‐dependent production process

Acceptance sampling plans are used to assess the quality of an ongoing production process, in addition to the lot acceptance. In this paper, we consider sampling inspection plans for monitoring the Markov‐dependent production process. We construct sequential plans that satisfy the usual probability requirements at acceptable quality level and rejectable quality level and, in addition, possess the minimum average sample number under semicurtailed inspection. As these plans result in large sample sizes, especially when the serial correlation is high, we suggest new plans called “systematic sampling plans.” The minimum average sample number systematic plans that satisfy the probability requirements are constructed. Our algorithm uses some simple recurrence relations to compute the required acceptance probabilities. The optimal systematic plans require much smaller sample sizes and acceptance numbers, compared to the sequential plans. However, they need larger production runs to make a decision. Tables for choosing appropriate sequential and systematic plans are provided. The problem of selecting the best systematic sampling plan is also addressed. The operating characteristic curves of some of the sequential and the systematic plans are compared, and are observed to be almost identical. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 451–467, 2001     

Reliability of a 2‐dimensional k‐within‐consecutive‐r × s‐out‐of‐m × n:F system

A 2‐dimensional rectangular (cylindrical) k‐within‐consecutive‐r × s‐out‐of‐m × n:F system is the rectangular (cylindrical) m × n‐system if the system fails whenever k components in a r × s‐submatrix fail. This paper proposes a recursive algorithm for the reliability of the 2‐dimensional k‐within‐consecutive‐r × s‐out‐m × n:F system, in the rectangular case and the cylindrical case. This algorithm requires min ( O (mk^r(n?s)), O (nk^s(m?r))), and O (mk^rn) computing time in the rectangular case and the cylindrical case, respectively. The proposed algorithm will be demonstrated and some numerical examples will be shown. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 625–637, 2001.     

On optimal aiming to hit a linear target

Typically weapon systems have an inherent systematic error and a random error for each round, centered around its mean point of impact. The systematic error is common to all aimings. Assume such a system for which there is a preassigned amount of ammunition of n rounds to engage a given target simultaneously, and which is capable of administering their fire with individual aiming points (allowing “offsets”). The objective is to determine the best aiming points for the system so as to maximize the probability of hitting the target by at least one of the n rounds. In this paper we focus on the special case where the target is linear (one‐dimensional) and there are no random errors. We prove that as long as the aiming error is symmetrically distributed and possesses one mode at zero, the optimal aiming is independent of the particular error distribution, and we specify the optimal aiming points. Possible extensions are further discussed, as well as civilian applications in manufacturing, radio‐electronics, and detection. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 323–333, 1999     

A heuristic for the two‐machine no‐wait openshop scheduling problem

In this paper the problem of minimizing makespan in a two‐machine openshop is examined. A heuristic algorithm is proposed, and its worst case performance ratio and complexity are analyzed. The average case performance is evaluated using an empirical study. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 129–145, 1999     

远程预警声呐发现目标后的机动原则

鉴于经典的载体优化理论对装备舷侧阵声呐的潜艇的局限性,讨论了装备舷侧阵远程预警声呐的潜艇发现目标后的机动问题.在分析经典的载体优化机动理论的使用条件和特点的前提下,借鉴美国潜艇拖曳阵远程预警声呐发现目标后的战术机动思想,提出了装备舷侧阵声呐的潜艇发现目标后可以采取与初始发现方位线相垂直的倒"U"字机动策略及具体的细节.该机动方法理论上成立,但具体参数的确定还需要经过计算机仿真和海上实践的检验.同时认为战术理论的发展与装备技术水平的发展紧密相关.     

导弹对抗离散数学模型

针对现代非接触战争的特点,用数学方法研究导弹对抗模型问题,针对作战的不同目的和要求,建立两个导弹对抗的非线性规划数学模型,对模型求解设计了近似方法,该方法把上述非线性规划模型化为多个线性规划模型进行求解.对一类较简单的特殊情况进行了仔细分析,得到了分析解.最后指出该方法如何应用于动态实时优化决策.本文的方法可用来预测和评估导弹对抗的效果,为作战实时优化决策提供参考.     

美军战略传播中的“叙事”策略

随着互联网技术的飞速发展,信息传播对国家政治、经济、外交和国防带来巨大冲击和影响。美军意识到传播叙事是政府和军队塑造形象、谋划战略、输出文化价值观的重要手段。美国从"重讲故事"的角度出发,将"叙事"包装成对外战略传播的新型方式,从思维认知、情感操控、舆论引导等方面强化对对手的心理威慑和影响,同时以新媒体为媒介扩大叙事传播的影响受众,进而达到物理打击所难以发挥的影响。