A Good Ally - Norway and International Statebuilding in Afghanistan, 2001-2014

The article examines the findings of the Commission of Inquiry established by the Norwegian government in 2014 to evaluate all aspects of Norway’s civilian and military contribution to the international operation in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2014. Concerned with the wider implications of the Commission’s findings, it focuses on two issues in particular: (1) Norway’s relations with the US, a close and long-standing strategic ally whose resources, capabilities and dominance of decision-making dwarfed that of all other coalition partners in Afghanistan; and (2) Norway’s record in the province of Faryab, where, from 2005 to 2012, a Norwegian-led Provincial Reconstruction Team was charged with bringing security, good governance and development to the province. How Norway prioritised and managed relations with the US highlights and helps to problematise the challenges – political, practical and moral – facing small and medium-sized powers operating in a coalition alongside the US. Norwegian efforts in Faryab are revealing of the dilemmas and contradictions that plagued and, ultimately, fatally undermined the international intervention as a whole. As such, Norway’s experience provides a microcosm through which the inherent limitations of the attempt to transfer the structures of modern statehood and Western democracy to Afghanistan can be better understood.     

An attacker‐defender model for analyzing the vulnerability of initial attack in wildfire suppression

Wildfire managers use initial attack (IA) to control wildfires before they grow large and become difficult to suppress. Although the majority of wildfire incidents are contained by IA, the small percentage of fires that escape IA causes most of the damage. Therefore, planning a successful IA is very important. In this article, we study the vulnerability of IA in wildfire suppression using an attacker‐defender Stackelberg model. The attacker's objective is to coordinate the simultaneous ignition of fires at various points in a landscape to maximize the number of fires that cannot be contained by IA. The defender's objective is to optimally dispatch suppression resources from multiple fire stations located across the landscape to minimize the number of wildfires not contained by IA. We use a decomposition algorithm to solve the model and apply the model on a test case landscape. We also investigate the impact of delay in the response, the fire growth rate, the amount of suppression resources, and the locations of fire stations on the success of IA.     

作战数据工程建设与发展

战争形态正加速向信息化战争演变,数字化作战成为主要形式,作战数据以前所未有的深度广度进入战争全脉络,成为作战的核心,影响着战争进程甚至决定成败。习主席高度重视作战数据建设,多次指出我军数据积累严重不足是军事斗争准备的短板弱项。因此,建设完善配套的作战数据库和形成战时高效的作战数据保障能力,对获取作战信息优势、提升指挥控制能力至关重要,对于提高我军基于网络信息体系的联合作战能力具有重要的支撑作用。     

国家安全视角下的网络文化安全形势与对策

互联网的发展加速了权力分散,对我国的国家安全尤其是文化安全维护提出了新的问题。当前,我国社会进入新时代发展阶段,社会主要矛盾发生重要变化。与互联网尤其是网络文化安全有关的风险和挑战不断增多,互联网已经成为文化安全斗争的主战场。如何直面挑战,着力维护网络文化安全,提出队伍建设、舆论阵地和平台建设、维护手段、思维和素养、机制和法规建设的对策方法。     

美国空军研究实验室组织管理与科研规划分析

美国空军研究实验室是一个在空中、太空和网络空间领域处于全球领先地位的科研机构,承担着美国空军国防高技术项目的规划、管理和实施工作,是美国空军保持技术优势的重要研究力量。本文剖析了美国空军实验室的使命任务、组织管理和科研规划,总结了实验室在人才培养和科研任务制定方面的经验和方法。     

Value management of diagnostic equipment with cancelation,no‐show,and emergency patients

Magnetic resonance imaging and other multifunctional diagnostic facilities, which are considered as scarce resources of hospitals, typically provide services to patients with different medical needs. This article examines the admission policies during the appointment management of such facilities. We consider two categories of patients: regular patients who are scheduled in advance through an appointment system and emergency patients with randomly generated demands during the workday that must be served as soon as possible. According to the actual medical needs of patients, regular patients are segmented into multiple classes with different cancelation rates, no‐show probabilities, unit value contributions, and average service times. Management makes admission decisions on whether or not to accept a service request from a regular patient during the booking horizon to improve the overall value that could be generated during the workday. The decisions should be made by considering the cancelation and no‐show behavior of booked patients as well as the emergency patients that would have to be served because any overtime service would lead to higher costs. We studied the optimal admission decision using a continuous‐time discrete‐state dynamic programming model. Identifying an optimal policy for this discrete model is analytically intractable and numerically inefficient because the state is multidimensional and infinite. We propose to study a deterministic counterpart of the problem (i.e., the fluid control problem) and to develop a time‐based fluid policy that is shown to be asymptotically optimal for large‐scale problems. Furthermore, we propose to adopt a mixed fluid policy that is developed based on the information obtained from the fluid control problem. Numerical experiments demonstrate that this improved policy works effectively for small‐scale problems. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 287–304, 2016     

基于灰色关联和D-S证据理论的导弹系统安全性评估

针对导弹系统安全性评价的不确定性问题,提出了将灰色关联和D-S证据理论相结合的方法,从人员安全性、设备安全性和环境安全性建立了综合评估指标体系,用灰色关联分析处理了指标之间的关联性。在传统证据合成公式的基础上,考虑证据集非关键因素的权重,给出了修正的证据合成公式。并以打靶选弹为例进行了计算分析,得出了导弹安全性优先级排序,并将改进算法与传统计算方法的结果进行了比较,验证了评价模型的可行性与实用性,为导弹系统的管理工作提供了有益的参考。     

基于双层规划的通信干扰兵力部署优化

投掷式通信干扰机是未来通信对抗装备发展的一种趋势,针对其压制无线战术通信的兵力部署优化问题,引入"通信干扰压制概率"和"通信干扰效益"两个指标,建立了基于双层规划的兵力部署优化模型,上层规划以整体通信干扰效益最大化为目标,下层为随机机会约束规划,以通信干扰压制概率满足一定置信水平为约束,以干扰机需求量最小化为目标。采用随机模拟、遗传算法和动态规划相结合的混合智能算法求解双层规划模型,并通过算例分析验证了模型的有效性。     

Reserve forces and the transformation of British military organisation: soldiers,citizens and society

In recent years, there has been a sharp growth in political and sociological interest in the British military. Set against the backdrop of the armed forces’ increasing presence in everyday life, alongside the organizations’ ongoing restructuring, the current paper focuses on the MoD’s problematic attempts to recruit 30,000 reservists by 2020; what has become known as the Future Reserves 2020 programme (FR2020). We argue that these changes are driven in part by the need to cut costs in defence. However, we also suggest that they are a reflection of the changing nature of modern military organisation, and the manner in which armed forces engage with the societies of which they are a part, and with the citizens that make up that society. We locate FR2020 programme in the context of a wider narrative about the changing nature of military organisation in contemporary western democracies, identifying structural, circumstantial and normative reasons for change. We also examine the specific challenges of implementing FR2020 in practice, including issues of recruitment and retention, integration and support, and relations with families and employers, drawing on the experience of comparator countries to do so. We conclude by considering the implications of these changes, both for the future of UK armed forces, and for the evolving nature of military-society relations in Britain.     

潜艇信息系统信息安全与纵深防护策略研究

随着网络中心战的发展,信息安全问题在现代潜艇系统中的重要性日益凸显。首先分析潜艇信息安全问题的背景、总结其研究现状,然后研究了潜艇信息安全需求及属性定义,探讨了潜艇信息系统信息安全防护整体框架,在此基础上提出了一种综合静态安全防护和动态运行安全防护的潜艇信息系统信息安全纵深防护体系结构。以期为解决潜艇系统设计中的安全缺陷、建立潜艇信息安全防护体系,辅助系统维护、保障系统安全提供基础。