The effect of catastrophes on the strategic customer behavior in queueing systems

We consider the single server Markovian queue subject to Poisson generated catastrophes. Whenever a catastrophe occurs, all customers are forced to abandon the system, the server is rendered inoperative and an exponential repair time is set on. During the repair time new arrivals are allowed to join the system. We assume that the arriving customers decide whether to join the system or balk, based on a natural linear reward‐cost structure with two types of rewards: A (usual) service reward for those customers that receive service and a (compensation) failure reward for those customers that are forced to abandon the system due to a catastrophe. We study the strategic behavior of the customers regarding balking and derive the corresponding (Nash) equilibrium strategies for the observable and unobservable cases. We show that both types of strategic behavior may be optimal: to avoid the crowd or to follow it. The crucial factor that determines the type of customer behavior is the relative value of the service reward to the failure compensation. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

基于不完全信息演化博弈模型的网络舆情传播羊群行为

以网络舆情传播过程中大部分人对事实不了解为前提,在这部分群体内构建基于不完全信息环境的两人对称演化博弈模型。提出了两人对称博弈矩阵来决定个体策略的选择,建立了复制动态方程说明不同策略群体比例的演化方向,演化时引入个体的记忆长度,根据设定的交互规则更新各自的观点值及记忆列表。仿真分析模型表明,在此环境中很容易产生羊群行为,群体内的个体都选择盲从并且观点保持一致。此外,羊群行为的集聚产生受多种因素影响,主要与采取分析策略的交互利益、成本系数以及记忆长度有关。本文对科学分析引导网络舆情的传播有一定实际意义。     

一种基于零控脱靶量的滑模末制导律设计

基于零控脱靶量的思想,提出一种能够有效针对大气层再入目标的滑模末制导律.首先,建立纵向平面内的弹目相对运动方程;然后利用扩张状态观测器对目标机动加速度信息进行估计,并对零控脱靶量算法进行分析,提出了制导律的设计思路;接着利用滑模变结构控制理论进行制导律的推导;最后进行仿真分析,仿真结果证明,所设计的制导律能够很好地对目标弹进行拦截,并且指令的跟踪效果也很好,从而验证了算法的有效性.     

Market entry strategy in the presence of market spillovers and efficiency differentiation

Firms form various alliances or use brand extensions to enter new markets in order to improve their operational efficiency and create a positive spillover. However, they do not always know the implications of these strategies for market entry and multimarket competition because the sale of products in one market can have negative spillover effects on product sales in other markets. We present an analytical framework to examine whether and how (i.e., by choosing alliance entry or independent entry) competing firms should enter a market in a situation where market spillovers occur when a firm enters a spillover-producing market to sell products that may increase or decrease the consumers' willingness to pay for products in the primary market. Our analysis shows that the operational efficiency (or quality differentiation ability) of firms in a spillover-producing market varies, and hence, the impact of market spillovers differs for firms. We identify the key factors, such as bargaining power, brand value difference in the primary market, and the extent of efficiencies and spillovers, that determine the firms benefitting from the different entry strategies. Specifically, we show that firms would be more willing to choose an alliance strategy to enter a spillover-producing market if the negative spillover is small and alliance efficiency is high. In contrast, if an alliance entry is not favored, the firms' relative operational efficiency is crucial for them to decide whether to enter the market independently under moderate spillover conditions. Finally, we show the implications of market entry strategies for managers.     

The Moral Dimension of “Global Zero”

Regrettably, moral arguments are largely absent from the current debate on nuclear disarmament. Indeed, complementing politico-strategic thinking with ethical categories could significantly strengthen the abolitionist call. To fill the gap, this article analyzes the evolution of the nuclear ethics of the Roman Catholic Church and especially its position on nuclear deterrence. If this strategy was granted interim and strictly conditioned moral acceptance during the Cold War, nuclear deterrence is today increasingly considered ineffective, an obstacle to genuine disarmament, and hence morally unjustifiable. In the new security context, the conditions for the Catholic Church's “interim nuclear ethics” have altered, and nuclear disarmament has become a feasible option and an alternative strategy to deterrence.     

中美网络空间的博弈与竞争

随着中美实力差距不断缩小和信息技术的发展与扩散,网络安全成为中美新的竞争点和摩擦点,中美在网络安全问题上展开新一轮的博弈,具体体现为网络空间治理权之争、中美网络安全战略博弈和网络技术优势的夺取。     

Weibull型产品的可靠性验证

讨论了Weibull型产品的可靠性验证问题 ,首先分析了Weibull型产品分布参数的无信息验前分布问题 ,利用验前信息可以得到分布参数的验前概率密度函数 ,进而分析了产品的可靠性验证问题 ,顾及了使用方利益和生产方利益。仿真算例表明 ,使用方利益和生产方利益是相互折衷的。     

An exact analysis of a joint production‐inventory problem in two‐echelon inventory systems

We consider a two‐echelon inventory system with a manufacturer operating from a warehouse supplying multiple distribution centers (DCs) that satisfy the demand originating from multiple sources. The manufacturer has a finite production capacity and production times are stochastic. Demand from each source follows an independent Poisson process. We assume that the transportation times between the warehouse and DCs may be positive which may require keeping inventory at both the warehouse and DCs. Inventory in both echelons is managed using the base‐stock policy. Each demand source can procure the product from one or more DCs, each incurring a different fulfilment cost. The objective is to determine the optimal base‐stock levels at the warehouse and DCs as well as the assignment of the demand sources to the DCs so that the sum of inventory holding, backlog, and transportation costs is minimized. We obtain a simple equation for finding the optimal base‐stock level at each DC and an upper bound for the optimal base‐stock level at the warehouse. We demonstrate several managerial insights including that the demand from each source is optimally fulfilled entirely from a single distribution center, and as the system's utilization approaches 1, the optimal base‐stock level increases in the transportation time at a rate equal to the demand rate arriving at the DC. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Approximation methods for the analysis of a multicomponent,multiproduct assemble‐to‐order system

In this article, we consider the performance evaluation of a multicomponent, multiproduct assemble‐to‐order (ATO) system. Each component is managed independently using a base‐stock policy at a supply facility with limited production capacity and an infinite buffer. The arrivals of demands follow a multivariate Poisson process and unfilled demands are backlogged. Because exact analysis of the proposed system is not feasible, we propose two approximation methods which provide upper and lower bounds for various performance measures such as fill rate, average waiting time, and average number of backorders of the proposed system. Our computational experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the two approximation methods under various system settings. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Multi‐period maintenance scheduling of tree networks with minimum flow disruption

We introduce a multi‐period tree network maintenance scheduling model and investigate the effect of maintenance capacity restrictions on traffic/information flow interruptions. Network maintenance refers to activities that are performed to keep a network operational. For linear networks with uniform flow between every pair of nodes, we devise a polynomial‐time combinatorial algorithm that minimizes flow disruption. The spiral structure of the optimal maintenance schedule sheds insights into general network maintenance scheduling. The maintenance problem on linear networks with a general flow structure is strongly NP‐hard. We formulate this problem as a linear integer program, derive strong valid inequalities, and conduct a polyhedral study of the formulation. Polyhedral analysis shows that the relaxation of our linear network formulation is tight when capacities and flows are uniform. The linear network formulation is then extended to an integer program for solving the tree network maintenance scheduling problem. Preliminary computations indicate that the strengthened formulations can solve reasonably sized problems on tree networks and that the intuitions gained from the uniform flow case continue to hold in general settings. Finally, we extend the approach to directed networks and to maintenance of network nodes. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011