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Christopher Clary 《战略研究杂志》2019,42(5):677-700
ABSTRACTThis article examines decision-making mistakes made by U.S. President Nixon and national security advisor Kissinger during the 1971 India-Pakistan crisis and war. It shows that Nixon and Kissinger routinely demonstrated psychological biases that led them to overestimate the likelihood of West Pakistani victory against Bengali rebels as well as the importance of the crisis to broader U.S. policy. The evidence fails to support Nixon and Kissinger’s own framing of the 1971 crisis as a contest between cool-headed realpolitik and idealistic humanitarianism, and instead shows that Kissinger and Nixon’s policy decisions harmed their stated goals because of repeated decision-making errors. 相似文献
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In this article, we define two different workforce leveling objectives for serial transfer lines. Each job is to be processed on each transfer station for c time periods (e.g., hours). We assume that the number of workers needed to complete each operation of a job in precisely c periods is given. Jobs transfer forward synchronously after every production cycle (i.e., c periods). We study two leveling objectives: maximin workforce size () and min range (R). Leveling objectives produce schedules where the cumulative number of workers needed in all stations of a transfer line does not experience dramatic changes from one production cycle to the next. For and a two‐station system, we develop a fast polynomial algorithm. The range problem is known to be NP‐complete. For the two‐station system, we develop a very fast optimal algorithm that uses a tight lower bound and an efficient procedure for finding complementary Hamiltonian cycles in bipartite graphs. Via a computational experiment, we demonstrate that range schedules are superior because not only do they limit the workforce fluctuations from one production cycle to the next, but they also do so with a minor increase in the total workforce size. We extend our results to the m‐station system and develop heuristic algorithms. We find that these heuristics work poorly for min range (R), which indicates that special structural properties of the m‐station problem need to be identified before we can develop efficient algorithms. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 577–590, 2016 相似文献
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仝倩倩 《兵团教育学院学报》2016,(4):62-66
当前中学英语语法教学仍采用传统的教学方法,从而忽视了学生学习主体性、经验性和能动性。本研究提出将启发式教学方法运用于中学英语语法课堂教学实践之中,并通过建构中学英语启发式教学的5阶段,即预备阶段、提示阶段、联想阶段、统合阶段及应用阶段,试图激发学生积极参与教学活动意识,促进师生及生生间的互动,提高英语语法课堂教学质量。 相似文献
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In this paper the problem of minimizing makespan in a two‐machine openshop is examined. A heuristic algorithm is proposed, and its worst case performance ratio and complexity are analyzed. The average case performance is evaluated using an empirical study. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 129–145, 1999 相似文献
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Yongbo Xiao 《海军后勤学研究》2018,65(1):3-25
In many applications, managers face the problem of replenishing and selling products during a finite time horizon. We investigate the problem of making dynamic and joint decisions on product replenishment and selling in order to improve profit. We consider a backlog scenario in which penalty cost (resulting from fulfillment delay) and accommodation cost (resulting from shortage at the end of the selling horizon) are incurred. Based on continuous‐time and discrete‐state dynamic programming, we study the optimal joint decisions and characterize their structural properties. We establish an upper bound for the optimal expected profit and develop a fluid policy by resorting to the deterministic version of the problem (ie, the fluid problem). The fluid policy is shown to be asymptotically optimal for the original stochastic problem when the problem size is sufficiently large. The static nature of the fluid policy and its lack of flexibility in matching supply with demand motivate us to develop a “target‐inventory” heuristic, which is shown, numerically, to be a significant improvement over the fluid policy. Scenarios with discrete feasible sets and lost‐sales are also discussed in this article. 相似文献
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向达 《中国人民武装警察部队学院学报》2010,(11):47-51
孔子和苏格拉底分别被誉为东西方的伦理学之父,作为轴心时代的文化英雄,他们的思想言行对后世产生了巨大的影响,例如孔子对中国重史、伦理本位及注入式教学等的影响,苏格拉底对西方理性、平等、自由及启发式教学的影响等。在当下时代,东西方文化都遇到了较大的困境,需要在碰撞与融合中获得新生。 相似文献
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针对光学小卫星成像调度系统设计需求,考虑侧视、存储容量、能量和数据传输等复杂约束,面向小规模问题应用,设计了问题求解流程.建立了顶点和边都带权的成像约束图模型,并提出了基于标记更新最短路算法的复杂约束成像卫星调度算法解决成像方案生成过程;对数传方案生成过程,给出背包模型并采用带回看策略的贪婪启发式方法进行问题求解.实验结果表明,该方法是可行和适用的. 相似文献
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在目前的网络舆情事件传播分析中,尽管生命周期模型能够较好地描述舆情事件的发展规律,但却忽略了部分时期之间存在的共性特征,无法充分体现意见领袖对网络舆情事件传播过程的影响。本文提出了一种基于知识图谱和二级传播理论的网络舆情事件传播分析方法,首先,构建网络舆情事件知识图谱;然后,基于知识图谱计算用户影响力挖掘意见领袖;最后,考虑到意见领袖的重要地位,为有效刻画网络舆情传播规律、周期与途径,根据传播学二级传播理论构建网络舆情事件传播模型,将生命周期模型的五个时期按照舆情发展态势划分为三个阶段:潜伏期(爆发期阶段)、爆发期(成熟期阶段)以及成熟期和衰退期(消亡期阶段)。实验结果表明,该方法能够有效计算和发掘包括意见领袖在内的用户影响力,传播、分析网络舆情事件效果较好。 相似文献
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