Call center arrival modeling: A Bayesian state‐space approach

In this article, we introduce three discrete time Bayesian state‐space models with Poisson measurements, each aiming to address different issues in call center arrival modeling. We present the properties of the models and develop their Bayesian inference. In so doing, we provide sequential updating and smoothing for call arrival rates and discuss how the models can be used for intra‐day, inter‐day, and inter‐week forecasts. We illustrate the implementation of the models by using actual arrival data from a US commercial bank's call center and provide forecasting comparisons. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 58: 28–42, 2011     

航空火控系统任务分析与任务管理关键技术

任务管理是航空火控系统的核心内容之一,属于火控顶层研究范畴。首先以战斗机进行空中作战的全过程为背景,分析火控系统于不同阶段所对应的任务状态以及不同状态之间的转换关系;在此基础上,对多任务之间的逻辑关系进行研究,并采用基于时序活动的分析方法描述火控系统的多任务特征;然后讨论了火控系统中任务管理问题的难点和关键技术;最后以状态时序→信息感知→传感器管理→(新的)状态时序为主线,构建任务管理的闭环式结构,并对未来战斗机任务管理的发展趋势进行展望。     

基于逆向分层的工作流时间-费用优化方法

针对效用网格下基于优先级因子的工作流时间-费用优化问题,基于工作流的同步完成特征对任务进行分层并提出三种实时调度算法:基于逆向分层的sufferage(BLSuff)、基于逆向分层的min-min(BLMin)及基于逆向分层的min-max(BLMax)。算法设计基于优先级因子的衡量标准对时间与费用同时进行优化,并为任务设置期望完成时间以达到充分利用费用优化空间进行费用优化的目标。实验结果表明这三种算法在各种优先级因子下都能对工作流的执行时间与执行费用进行较好的优化。     

磷酸盐水泥凝结时间研究

试验研究了缓凝剂、氧化镁比表面积及活性、粉煤灰、环境温度、水固比等因素对磷酸盐水泥(MPC)凝结时间的影响,并就磷酸盐水泥水化机理进行讨论.研究结果发现,缓凝剂、氧化镁比表面积及活性、环境温度三者对磷酸盐水泥凝结时间影响较大,而粉煤灰掺量与水固比对凝结时间的影响作用相对较小.     

本征模式函数与经验模式分解方法分析

介绍本征模式函数IMF满足的条件和定义,分析了经验摸式分解EMD的前提、本质及其对非线性平衡系统数据处理所体现的优越性,并以隧道采集的风力数据处理为例,对上述理论进行了验证,展示了这种新方法的作用和效果。最后,从理论上证明了所处理数据的完备性及EMD成员正交性应满足的条件。     

时域超宽带紧缩场雷达目标特性测量系统研究与开发

介绍时域超宽带雷达目标特性测量系统的工作原理及测量软件的开发过程。首次将数字取样示波器应用于紧缩场,研究测量原理,给出系统结构及测量流程图,开发超宽带紧缩场暗室雷达目标特性测量系统,包括雷达散射截面测量、极化散射矩阵测量和微波成像等模块。最后给出该系统测量获得的部分数据。     

Optimal burn‐in procedure for periodically inspected systems

Burn‐in is a widely used method to improve the quality of products or systems after they have been produced. In this paper, we study burn‐in procedure for a system that is maintained under periodic inspection and perfect repair policy. Assuming that the underlying lifetime distribution of a system has an initially decreasing and/or eventually increasing failure rate function, we derive upper and lower bounds for the optimal burn‐in time, which maximizes the system availability. Furthermore, adopting an age replacement policy, we derive upper and lower bounds for the optimal age parameter of the replacement policy for each fixed burn‐in time and a uniform upper bound for the optimal burn‐in time given the age replacement policy. These results can be used to reduce the numerical work for determining both optimal burn‐in time and optimal replacement policy. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Modeling and analysis of a mixed‐model assembly line with stochastic operation times

We consider a mixed‐model assembly line (MMAL) comprised a set of workstations and a conveyor. The workstations are arranged in a serial configuration. The conveyor moves at a constant speed along the workstations. Initial units belonging to different models are successively fed onto the conveyor, and they are moved by the conveyor to pass through the workstations to gradually generate final products. All assembling tasks are manually performed with operation times to be stochastic. An important performance measure of MMALs is overload times that refer to uncompleted operations for operators within their work zones. This paper establishes a method to analyze the expected overload times for MMALs with stochastic operation times. The operation processes of operators form discrete time nonhomogeneous Markov processes with continuous state spaces. For a given daily production schedule, the expected overload times involve in analyzing the Markov processes for finite horizon. Based on some important properties of the performance measure, we propose an efficient approach for calculating the expected overload times. Numerical computations show that the results are very satisfactory. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Combining standardized time series area and Cramér–von Mises variance estimators

We propose three related estimators for the variance parameter arising from a steady‐state simulation process. All are based on combinations of standardized‐time‐series area and Cramér–von Mises (CvM) estimators. The first is a straightforward linear combination of the area and CvM estimators; the second resembles a Durbin–Watson statistic; and the third is related to a jackknifed version of the first. The main derivations yield analytical expressions for the bias and variance of the new estimators. These results show that the new estimators often perform better than the pure area, pure CvM, and benchmark nonoverlapping and overlapping batch means estimators, especially in terms of variance and mean squared error. We also give exact and Monte Carlo examples illustrating our findings.© 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

基于混合变量传递函数方法的圆柱壳屈曲分析

提出了一种分析正交各向异性圆柱壳和阶梯圆柱壳稳定性问题的混合变量传递函数方法。首先在壳体环向利用三角级数对位移变量进行展开 ,利用Fl櫣ｇｇｅ薄壳理论和变分原理 ,建立圆柱壳的平衡方程 ,找出对偶力变量 ,将平衡方程写成混合变量形式 ;通过定义混合状态变量 ,建立了系统的状态空间方程 ;然后利用传递函数方法 ,得到了具有任何轴对称边界条件轴压圆柱壳屈曲问题的解析解 ;最后通过位移连续和力平衡条件 ,得到了阶梯圆柱壳屈曲问题的解。理论解推导过程表明此方法在引入边界条件和进行阶梯圆柱壳求解时非常方便。算例分析的结果验证了本方法的正确性