舰船总体任务成功性的建模与应用

针对典型舰船的系统组成,进行了全舰任务成功性指标的示例计算,给出了总体指标的层次化表达方式。以舰船任务过程和典型任务剖面为依据,分析了任务可靠性和任务成功性之间的区别与联系,建立了舰船总体任务成功性指标的多阶段整体模型,并对航渡、待机、交战、撤离、返航阶段分别进行了仿真和解析建模。在建模与计算的基础上,通过敏感性分析计算了任务阶段持续时间的单位降低率等指标,为舰船任务成功性问题及其相关研究,提供了一个系统性的分析框架和方法。     

Initiating insurgencies abroad: French plans to ‘chouannise’ Britain and Ireland, 1793–1798

Secret French plans to launch guerrilla-style raids on the British Isles devised in the spring of 1796 were referred to as ‘chouanneries’. The name and concept behind these small-war operations were modelled on the irregular tactics used by the Chouan rebels in the Vendée, which the French state army had brutally quashed, but some wished to transfer into their institutional practice. Part of France's ongoing military strategy in the war against Britain, which included fomenting insurrection in Ireland, these irregular operations were to be manned partially by pardoned deserters and released convicts and prisoners of war. Of these, only Tate's brief invasion of Wales in 1797 was realised, but the surviving plans provide insightful historical lessons into an Anglophobic mindset shared by a small network of practitioners and policy deciders on the effectiveness of such shock and awe tactics. Largely motivated by the desire to take revenge for Britain's support of counter-revolutionaries in the Vendée, these plans could more aptly be referred to as counter-‘chouanneries’.     

碳纤维强度的统计特性及对复合材料线芯力学性能的影响

测试了国产T300级碳纤维的单丝和复丝拉伸强度,并用Weibull分布来描述碳纤维单丝平均拉伸强度。采用拉挤工艺制备出国产碳纤维复合线芯,测试了国产碳纤维复合线芯的弯曲强度和短梁剪切强度性能。结果表明:国产T300级碳纤维单丝拉伸强度性能达到东丽T300碳纤维水平,且分散性更小;复丝强度略低。国产T300级碳纤维集束性较差,在拉挤抽纱过程中,容易夹纱和起毛。在纤维体积含量基本相同情况下,国产T300级碳纤维复合线芯力学性能与东丽T700碳纤维复合线芯力学性能相差不大。     

THO-MAC:一种两跳优化的低延迟低功耗无线传感器网络介质访问控制协议

功耗与延迟是无线传感器网络介质访问控制协议设计首要考虑的两个问题。提出了一种新的传感器网络低延迟、低功耗、接收节点初始化异步介质访问控制协议——THO-MAC协议。通过准确预测接收节点的唤醒时间,THO-MAC协议调度发送节点侦听信道,从而减少发送节点空闲侦听能量浪费。THOMAC协议在发送节点两跳转发节点集中选择使报文两跳转发延迟最小的转发节点,从而降低报文传输延迟。使用NS2模拟器对THO-MAC协议进行了详细模拟。模拟结果显示,与RI-MAC和Any-MAC协议相比,THOMAC协议可以减少35.5%和18%的报文传输延迟,同时节省23.5%和15.5%的节点功耗。     

非相干背景光辐照二波耦合中的最佳匹配随机共振

针对非相干背景光辐照二波耦合中参数的最佳匹配设计问题,提出了一种基于随机共振理论的研究方法。首先,文章通过二波耦合过程进行物理机理分析和数值实验分析,证明了该问题在本质上可归结为一种随机共振现象。其次,从随机共振的角度,研究其中的最佳参数设计问题,给出了一种分布处理的最优参数设计流程。按照该方法,在给定增益要求的情况下,先根据信号光饱和与否来确定晶体长度,最后根据非相干光的比例对增益的影响来确定非相干光的比例。仿真实验表明,经过最佳参数设计后,信号的增益和输出信噪比上均有显著提高。     

Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014     

Poachers turned gamekeepers: A study of the guerrilla phenomenon in Spain, 1808–1840

This article modifies the associations made by historians and political scientists of Spanish guerrilla warfare with revolutionary insurgency. First, it explains how the guerrilla phenomenon moved from a Leftist to a reactionary symbol. Second, it compares the insurgency and counter-insurgency features of the Carlist War (1833–1840) with those of the better-known Peninsular War (1808–1814). Third, it shows how erstwhile guerrilla leaders during the Carlist War made their expertise available to the counter-insurgency, in a socio-economic as well as military setting. This article revises the social banditry paradigm in nineteenth-century Spain in the under-researched context of Europe bloodiest nineteenth-century civil war.     

卫星位置视觉测量

目前卫星轨道参数的测量主要依靠地面测控站的无线电测量,使得测量受限于测控站的观测弧段;另一方面随着深空探测的不断深入,也对现有测控方法提出了新的挑战。利用卫星上已有的相机通过景象匹配对卫星自身位置进行精确测量,可以有效摆脱地面测量观测弧段和测量距离的约束。本文提出了一种基于星载实时图与基准图匹配的视觉测轨方法:通过景象匹配建立实时图中特征点与基准图的对应关系,再根据成像关系解算卫星的三维位置。利用卫星获取的立体图像和轨道测量数据进行了验证实验,证明了本文提出的方法具有较高的精度,实现了地基无线电测轨和视觉测轨的相互验证。本文提出的视觉测轨方法可以弥补现有测轨方式的不足,减轻地面测控系统负担,在深空探测等领域具有良好的应用前景。     

惯组动态测试台误差分析及附加运动补偿算法

为了完成惯组的高精度、大动态测试任务,基于Gough-Stewart平台设计了电动六自由度惯组动态测试台。建立了系统的误差模型并分析了电动缸长度误差对系统精度的影响,分析了电动缸在惯组动态测试台运动过程中产生的被动螺旋附加运动,并对该运动补偿算法进行了研究。对被动螺旋附加运动产生的误差进行量化分析,结果表明,被动螺旋附加运动对惯组动态测试台的位姿精度存在非常显著的影响。为了消除该影响,编制了补偿算法,并将其应用于惯组动态测试台的实时控制系统中。实验结果表明,经过算法补偿后,惯组动态测试台的位姿精度达到了设计指标要求。     

UHMWPE纤维混凝土基本力学性能研究

研究了一种由超高分子量聚乙烯（UHMWPE）纤维增强的新型纤维混凝土基本力学性能。针对C70等级高强混凝土,设计了四种体积掺量纤维混凝土,通过立方体抗压、劈裂抗拉和四点弯曲抗折试验,分析了纤维掺量对混凝土力学性能的影响。结果表明：UHMWPE纤维对混凝土的抗压强度增强作用不明显,但较大提高了混凝土的抗拉强度和抗折强度,且对混凝土有很好的阻裂、增韧效果。在纤维体积掺量为0.3%~0.5%时,劈裂抗拉强度提高25%以上;掺量0.5%时,弯曲抗折强度提高率超过23%。