观瞄仪器微控MTF测量

为了全面客观地评价观瞄仪器成像质量,介绍采用光电探测原理和微机控制的信息处理技术,对观瞄仪器进行调制传递函数(MTF)测量的方法;用该方法全面评价观瞄仪器质量,具有操作简单,速度快,精度高,测量周期短的特点,适用于不同场合对各类观瞄仪器进行MTF(f)测量。     

美军PAC-3评估指标体系分析

本文详细介绍了美国军方在对其PAC-3(爱国者先进能力-3)系统评估时所采用的评估指标体系。并对该评估指标体系的特点进行了认真的分析。本文旨在我军同类武器系统评估指标体系的建立提供参考。     

推理树概率逻辑公式集有效赋值列数计算

本文通过对概率逻辑推理树知识结构模型的研究,得出在树推理中对矩阵列消减起主要作用的相邻关系及其计算方法,给出了树推理模型的有效赋值列数的一般计算方法。     

关于机载火控雷达三防问题的探讨

讨论了潮湿、盐雾、霉菌三种气候环境条件对机载火控雷达的影响,根据海军部队的使用维护特点,提出增强雷达设备“三防”性能的措施。     

一种不用A/D的数字式落高自动测控系统

通过对现有多卜勒探测体制的模拟电路式落高控制方法及应用A/D的单片机落高测控方法的分析,提出一种不用A/D的单片机落高测控方法,该方法利用多普勒脉宽提取落高信息,以比较器替代常用的A/D转换器。设计了相应的硬件电路和应用软件。通过了仿真试验的验证。     

Augmented nested sampling for stochastic programs with recourse and endogenous uncertainty

We propose a novel simulation‐based approach for solving two‐stage stochastic programs with recourse and endogenous (decision dependent) uncertainty. The proposed augmented nested sampling approach recasts the stochastic optimization problem as a simulation problem by treating the decision variables as random. The optimal decision is obtained via the mode of the augmented probability model. We illustrate our methodology on a newsvendor problem with stock‐dependent uncertain demand both in single and multi‐item (news‐stand) cases. We provide performance comparisons with Markov chain Monte Carlo and traditional Monte Carlo simulation‐based optimization schemes. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.     

证据推理法在C4ISR系统可靠性评价中的应用

首先参考外军NATO COBP阐述了不确定性处理在C4ISR系统评价中的重要性,鉴于ER方法的先进思想,介绍了ER(Evidential Reasoning)方法在不确定条件下的基本评价框架,并对ER方法和AHP方法,D-S证据理论以及模糊综合评价方法进行了比较综合,针对我军C4ISR系统可靠性评价中的数据不完备等实际问题,初步应用此方法进行评价,对决策人员有一定的参考意义.     

陀螺马达驱动信号的数字化测量与失真度分析

简要介绍陀螺马达驱动信号的数字化测量方法及失真度分析的数学原理 ,给出了一个实例 .实践证明 ,该方法电路结构简单、参数测量准确、程序编写方便 ,具有较好的实时性能 .     

飞机结构疲劳可靠度贝叶斯组合预测

在实际工程中,常常需要利用模型去描述和分析问题。然而模型亦存在不确定性,即可能存在多个描述同一现象的模型,例如多个疲劳分析的模型。针对飞机结构的疲劳可靠性问题,提出在考虑三种裂纹扩展模型下基于贝叶斯公式的疲劳可靠度组合预测方法。针对不同应力水平下飞机结构试件的裂纹扩展数据建立了三种随机裂纹扩展模型;在考虑模型参数不确定性条件下,采用贝叶斯模型平均方法对三种模型进行组合;基于组合模型分析结构的可靠度。所提方法在分析飞机结构疲劳可靠度上,采用了组合模型,能够最大限度保障结果的稳定性。此外,考虑了模型参数的不确定性,能够得到更为合理的裂纹扩展预测分布和可靠度预测值。给出的实例及分析结果表明所提方法可行。     

Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making: Underexposed issues,advancements, and ways forward

How much mileage can we get out of prospect theory to explain foreign policy decision-making? To answer this question, we first argue that risk as outcome uncertainty is the appropriate definition in prospect-theoretical applications. Then, we indicate that probability weighting—a crucial component of prospect theory—is typically ignored in such applications. We argue why this is problematic and suggest how to move forward. Next, we discuss how to establish the reference point in the face of outcomes in multiple dimensions, as is typically the case in foreign policy decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we have learnt regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions and the differences across individuals in the theory’s applicability. Overall, our contribution lies in identifying several underexposed or neglected issues (e.g., the definition of risk and probability weighting), in examining the advancements regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions, and in discussing avenues for further research.