The rising unit cost of defence equipment — The reasons and the results

This paper constructs a conceptual model for the selection of defence equipment providing best value for money. It then shows how the unit cost of the chosen equipment increases between one generation of equipment and its successor because of developments in the perceived threat, the available technology and industrial productivity, and demonstrates that unit cost increases can arise from a logical and rational procurement policy and are not necessarily caused by technological chimeras and military vainglory. The resulting persistent rise in unit cost is unlikely to be significantly slowed by any of the counter‐measures yet proposed.

The paper then discusses the policies which nations have adopted to accommodate past increases in unit cost, and the options which confront any nation at the point when it can no longer afford to re‐equip a particular element of its armed forces.     

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Consequential Damages of Nuclear War: The Rongelap Report, by Barbara Rose Johnston and Holly M. Barker. Left Coast Press, 2008. 296 pages, $29.95.     

海拔高度对发动机泵机组性能的影响

介绍250型泵机组基本参数,详细阐述该型发动机泵机组的动力传递关系,应用FST2E型测试台架开展泵机组发动机高原效能模拟试验,获取发动机在不同海拔高度的功率、燃油消耗率和油耗量数据,拟合生成发动机负荷特性曲线。定量分析不同海拔高度发动机功率下降对离心泵体积流量、效率、扬程等的影响,得出泵机组体积流量、扬程、效率的下降规律。研究结果可为现有泵机组的使用及新型泵机组的研制提供理论依据和数据参考。     

假设检验在军事工程应用中的若干问题

对假设检验这一统计学工具在军事工程应用中值得注意的若干问题进行了探讨,包括假设的设置、检验门限的设置和统计量的构造等,这些问题在理论上有一些一般的指导,但在实际工程应用中,需要根据具体问题进行设计,这中间涉及一些技巧和经验,也容易出现一些常被忽视的问题。指出了这些问题,并给出了在实际工程中应用好假设检验的一些建议。     

末端防御武器平台炮控性能检测方法

末端防御武器平台炮控系统性能的好坏直接影响首发命中率和射击反应时间等重要战技指标,在设计试验阶段,对其炮控性能进行检测是必不可少的环节。采用基于三棱锥模型的炮控性能检测方法,建立了三棱锥计算模型并进行Matlab仿真分析以及检测精度分析,从而验证了其工作原理及可行性,满足武器平台炮控性能检测的要求。     

EEMD+BiGRU组合模型在短时交通流量预测中的应用

针对城市交通流随机波动性强、数据中含噪声多导致预测精度下降的问题,提出一种基于集合经验模态分解(ensemble empirical mode decomposition,EEMD)和双向门控循环单元(bidirectional gated recurrent unit,BiGRU)的组合交通流量预测模型,有效地提升了短时交通流预测的精度。模型利用EEMD算法对原始数据进行分解,根据分解所得的本征模函数(intrinsic mode function,IMF)分量绘制噪声能量图谱,去除分量中的噪声,并将去噪后的IMF分量作为BiGRU网络的输入进行训练,再将训练所得的结果进行重构加和,得到最终的预测结果。实验结果表明,未舍弃含有噪声的IMF分量进行重构的预测结果,相比于参考文献中提出的EMD+LSTM模型、LSTM模型和EEMD+LSTM模型,其平均绝对百分误差分别优化了42.36%、61.82%和30.95%;舍弃含有噪声的IMF分量后进行重构的预测结果,其平均绝对百分误差相比于将全部IMF分量进行重构优化了56.62%。     

一种锥比率数据包络分析模型及有关结论

本文研究一种锥比率数据包络分析模型,它既能反映各项输入或输出的相对重要性和对某些决策单元的偏好,又可单纯地评价决策单元间的相对技术有效性。本文着重讨论这一模型的DEA有效性与多目标规划非支配解的关系以及有效决策单元的存在性等问题,论证了有关结论。     

武警“合训”院校大学英语教学形成性评估探析

将形成性评估恰当地运用到大学英语课堂,能显著改善教学效果,有效弥补当前武警“合训”院校大学英语教学与测试的一些不足。从分析大学英语教学中的形成性评估的重要性着手,指出形成性评估中存在的问题及原因,并提出了一些设想和方案。     

基于变转速的柴油抗磨性评定方法

以MRS-1J型四球摩擦磨损试验机为平台,提出了一种变转速条件下柴油抗磨性评定方法。利用VC＋＋对试验机软件进行了改进,增加了负荷-转速程序控制功能,实现了试验机自由设置转速、负荷的变化范围、变化速率和变化模式。通过正交试验方法确定了最佳试验条件,发现试验时间3N1min,负荷11N2N,油温60℃,转速在1 min内由100 r/min线性上升至20N3r/min再线性下降至100 r/min并依次循环时,该试验方法具有良好的重复性和区分性。在与高频往复试验机法的对比中,发现该方法的磨斑直径变化率大于高频往复试验机法,证明变转速四球机法优于高频往复试验机法。     

Reduction of global effects on vehicles after IED detonations

Global effects caused by the detonation of an IED near a military vehicle induce subsequent severe acceleration effects on the vehicle occupants. Two concepts to minimize these global effects were developed, with the help of a combined method based on a scaled experimental technology and numerical simulations. The first concept consists in the optimization of the vehicle shape to reduce the momentum transfer and thus the occupant loading. Three scaled V-shaped vehicles with different ground clearances were built and compared to a reference vehicle equipped with a flat floor. The second concept, called dynamic impulse compensation (DIC), is based on a momentum compensation technique. The principal possibility of this concept was demonstrated on a scaled vehicle. In addition, the numerical simulations have been performed with generic full size vehicles including dummy models, proving the capability of the DIC technology to reduce the occupant loading.