故障预测与健康管理技术的应用与发展

基于故障预测与健康管理（Prognostics and Health Management,PHM）系统框架,分析了PHM技术在装备维修保障中的重要意义,概述了PHM技术的发展过程及应用现状,重点讨论了当前故障预测与健康管理所采用的关键技术,包括先进传感器技术、数据传输技术、数据挖掘与信息融合技术、健康评估与故障预测技术、智能推理与决策支持技术等,最后展望了PHM技术的发展趋势。     

时间管理在实时仿真中的改进

时问是分布仿真中的核心概念;时间管理是分布交互仿真的关键技术.探讨了分布交互仿真中高层体系结构(HLA)的时间管理机制,针对HLA在实时系统仿真方面的不足,分析其原因,提出了时间管理在实时仿真中的改进方法,对HLA在实时系统仿真中的应用有一定的参考价值.     

基于贝叶斯决策方法的项目管理能力评估研究

项目管理能力是评价科研单位是否具有牵头组织能力的重要指标之一。针对现有评价方法在稳定性、科学性方面的不足,以传统的科研项目管理能力评估方法为基础,引入贝叶斯理论,建立了贝叶斯决策评估模型,并利用实际案例验证了其在科研项目管理能力评估中的有效性。结果表明,该评估方法能够充分利用历史资料和专家意见,对初步评估结果进行再度评估,具有较强的客观性、准确性。     

伪劣消防产品现状及整治对策探讨

消防水带、消防水枪、消火栓箱体、室内消火栓、钢质防火门、应急照明、疏散指示标志、灭火器等多种消防产品,不合格产品很多,存在问题严重。分析了假冒伪劣消防产品的现状,并分析了存在问题的原因,从联合治理、提高执法人员素质、健全法规制度、加大宣传力度等方面提出了整治假冒伪劣消防产品的措施,指出了在具体工作中遇到的难题。     

消防部队火灾扑救和应急救援心理训练实践与探索

消防部队承担着复杂而危险的火灾扑救和应急救援任务,战斗中常会出现各种不良心理,心理素质是影响部队战斗力的重要因素。开展心理素质训练,提高消防官兵心理素质和心理适应能力是一个亟待解决的问题。阐述了消防部队火灾扑救和应急救援工作实际以及有关心理学知识,研究如何开展火灾扑救和应急救援心理训练,提高消防官兵的心理素质和心理适应能力。     

以科学发展观为牵引实现学员队科学管理

军队院校学员队应坚持以培养人才为中心,坚持理论与实际、学院教育与部队建设相结合,遵循院校教育规律,坚持“解放思想、勇于创新,需求牵引、强化特色,遵循规律、持续发展,突出重点、整体推进,注重质量、讲求效益”的原则,全面推进创新教育和素质教育;加强科学管理、创新管理、从严管理,切实提高学员综合素质。     

转变管理模式注重学员创造性思维能力的培养

学员队管理要注重学员创造性思维能力的培养。在分析传统管理模式对学员创造性思维能力培养的制约因素的基础上,提出了管理者应转变管理模式,注重培养学员创造性思维能力的几最思考。     

Strategic dynamic sourcing from competing suppliers with transferable capacity investment

We study the supplier relationship choice for a buyer that invests in transferable capacity operated by a supplier. With a long‐term relationship, the buyer commits to source from a supplier over a long period of time. With a short‐term relationship, the buyer leaves open the option of switching to a new supplier in the future. The buyer has incomplete information about a supplies efficiency, and thus uses auctions to select suppliers and determine the contracts. In addition, the buyer faces uncertain demand for the product. A long‐term relationship may be beneficial for the buyer because it motivates more aggressive bidding at the beginning, resulting a lower initial price. A short‐term relationship may be advantageous because it allows switching, with capacity transfer at some cost, to a more efficient supplier in the future. We find that there exists a critical level of the switching cost above which a long‐term relationship is better for the buyer than a short‐term relationship. In addition, this critical switching cost decreases with demand uncertainty, implying a long‐term relationship is more favorable for a buyer facing volatile demand. Finally, we find that in a long‐term relationship, capacity can be either higher or lower than in a short‐term relationship. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

Optimal control policies for an inventory system with commitment lead time

We consider a firm which faces a Poisson customer demand and uses a base‐stock policy to replenish its inventories from an outside supplier with a fixed lead time. The firm can use a preorder strategy which allows the customers to place their orders before their actual need. The time from a customer's order until the date a product is actually needed is called commitment lead time. The firm pays a commitment cost which is strictly increasing and convex in the length of the commitment lead time. For such a system, we prove the optimality of bang‐bang and all‐or‐nothing policies for the commitment lead time and the base‐stock policy, respectively. We study the case where the commitment cost is linear in the length of the commitment lead time in detail. We show that there exists a unit commitment cost threshold which dictates the optimality of either a buy‐to‐order (BTO) or a buy‐to‐stock strategy. The unit commitment cost threshold is increasing in the unit holding and backordering costs and decreasing in the mean lead time demand. We determine the conditions on the unit commitment cost for profitability of the BTO strategy and study the case with a compound Poisson customer demand.     

基于大数据分析的网络管理智能化

军事通信网综合管理系统中,各专业网络运行情况的主要数据都可汇总到综合网管数据库中。这些网管数据中隐含了网络运行的几乎全部信息,但即使是最有经验的网络管理专家面对这些繁杂的数据也只能望洋兴叹。面对大数据的智能分析技术则有可能实现网络运行态势的高度可视化,充分理解和详细把握全网运行状态,像知识、经验、联想丰富的专家一样不知疲倦地对网络运行状况进行全面细致地分析,从海量的网管数据中发现网络故障的蛛丝马迹,发现隐含的问题,预知网络变化。论文介绍了利用大数据分析技术实现网络管理智能化的现实目标,基于性能的网络异常预测预报、基于性能和事件的故障分析诊断、网络运行知识的挖掘利用等方面的功能和技术途径。