Selling to strategic and loss‐averse consumers: Stocking,procurement, and product design policies

Motivated by the presence of loss‐averse decision making behavior in practice, this article considers a supply chain consisting of a firm and strategic consumers who possess an S‐shaped loss‐averse utility function. In the model, consumers decide the purchase timing and the firm chooses the inventory level. We find that the loss‐averse consumers' strategic purchasing behavior is determined by their perceived gain and loss from strategic purchase delay, and the given rationing risk. Thus, the firm that is cognizant of this property tailors its inventory stocking policy based on the consumers' loss‐averse behavior such as their perceived values of gain and loss, and their sensitivity to them. We also demonstrate that the firm's equilibrium inventory stocking policy reflects both the economic logic of the traditional newsvendor inventory model, and the loss‐averse behavior of consumers. The equilibrium order quantity is significantly different from those derived from models that assume that the consumers are risk neutral and homogeneous in their valuations. We show that the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior tends to keep an unnecessarily high inventory level that leads to excessive leftovers. Our numerical experiments further reveal that in some extreme cases the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior generates almost 92% more leftovers than the firm that possesses consumers’ loss‐aversion information and takes it into account when making managerial decisions. To mitigate the consumer's forward‐looking behavior, we propose the adoption of the practice of agile supply chain management, which possesses the following attributes: (i) procuring inventory after observing real‐time demand information, (ii) enhanced design (which maintains the current production mix but improves the product performance to a higher level), and (iii) customized design (which maintains the current performance level but increases the variety of the current production line to meet consumers’ specific demands). We show that such a practice can induce the consumer to make early purchases by increasing their rationing risk, increasing the product value, or diversifying the product line. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 435–453, 2015     

基于虚拟检测函数下的IMM-UKF机动目标跟踪

为了有效提高对机动目标的跟踪效果,将无迹卡尔曼滤波(UKF)引入到交互多模型(IMM)算法框架内,加强状态估计精度;引入强跟踪滤波器(STF)到UKF算法中,避免对强机动目标的过大时间延迟和跟踪性能差的缺点;提出虚拟检测函数法,在跟踪过程中自适应调整"当前"统计模型的机动参数,加大模型集与目标真实运动模式匹配概率。仿真结果验证了改进算法的有效性。     

基于相关性的OFDM盲识别与参数估计方法

针对非协作通信领域OFDM信号识别难的问题,提出一种基于信号循环前缀相关性的盲识别和时域参数估计算法。通过对OFDM信号循环自相关函数进行分析,在时域上求出延时自相关运算函数的波形,利用循环前缀的相关波峰的特性,以区别OFDM信号和单载波信号,实现对OFDM信号的盲识别。在此基础上,通过采用多个OFDM信号构造循环前缀相关性的累加函数所形成的波峰完成对符号和循环前缀长度等参数的估计。     

泵喷宽带非定常激振力预报与参数分析

为预报泵喷推进器转子与湍流互作用宽频非定常激振力,在Sears函数的基础上,考虑随机湍流波的影响,推导了螺旋桨宽频非定常激振力预报公式,并与实验值对比验证了该公式。进一步考虑泵喷推进器转子工作在前导叶尾流场的情况,通过Gauss尾流模型建立叶片尾流湍流波数谱,通过经验公式计算叶片尾流场参数。推导得到泵喷推进器转子宽频非定常激振力预报公式,通过公式计算得到的宽频非定常激振力与数值计算结果相近。分析了流场参数的变化对推进器转子宽频辐射噪声预报结果的影响。研究得到,湍流强度只影响宽频非定常激振力预报结果的幅值,湍流积分尺度对幅值和频谱形状都有较大的影响。     

泵喷推进器线谱非定常推力预报方法与试验验证

为预报泵喷推进器转子与周期性前导叶尾流互作用线谱非定常推力,忽略泵喷推进器转子叶片厚度,将泵喷转子简化为环形叶栅,根据片条理论,在半径r处截取泵喷转子分段,忽略流场参数沿分段径向的变化,从而可将该环形叶栅分段视为平面叶栅,在平面叶栅与简谐波互作用的基础上考虑周期性进流,推导得到前导叶分段与转子分段互作用线谱非定常激振力,转子分段周向积分得到非定常推力线谱预报公式,通过数值和试验方法验证公式的有效性。开展设计参数影响分析,得到当前导叶-转子间距与前导叶弦长的比值大于1时,转子-后导叶间距对转子单个叶片的激振力线谱推力几乎不存在影响。     

Predicting older-donor kidneys' post-transplant renal function using pre-transplant data

This paper provides a methodology for predicting post-transplant kidney function, that is, the 1-year post-transplant estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR-1) for each donor-candidate pair. We apply customized machine-learning algorithms to pre-transplant donor and recipient data to determine the probability of achieving an eGFR-1 of at least 30 ml/min. This threshold was chosen because there is insufficient survival benefit if the kidney fails to generate an eGFR-1 ≥ 30 ml/min. For some donor-candidate pairs, the developed algorithm provides highly accurate predictions. For others, limitations of previous transplants' data results in noisier predictions. However, because the same kidney is offered to many candidates, we identify those pairs for whom the predictions are highly accurate. Out of 6977 discarded older-donor kidneys that were a match with at least one transplanted kidney, 5282 had one or more identified candidate, who were offered that kidney, did not accept any other offer, and would have had ≥80% chance of achieving eGFR-1 ≥ 30 ml/min, had the kidney been transplanted. We also show that transplants with ≥80% chance of achieving eGFR-1 ≥ 30 ml/min and that survive 1 year have higher 10-year death-censored graft survival probabilities than all older-donor transplants that survive 1 year (73.61% vs. 70.48%, respectively).     

基于RBF神经网络的导弹自动驾驶仪故障诊断

系统地分析了某型导弹自动驾驶仪的结构功能,在此基础上提出了采用RBF(径向基函数)神经网络对自动驾驶仪进行故障诊断的方法;提出了用Gauss(高斯)函数对获取的数据进行归一化处理的方法,再用处理后的数据训练RBF神经网络。实验结果表明,训练后的神经网络能快速、准确地诊断自动驾驶仪的故障,为自动驾驶仪的故障诊断提出了一种新的方法。     

舰艇编队防空作战信息效用分析及度量模型

提出了信息生产-消费模型,对舰艇编队防空作战的信息效用进行了分析,建立了信息效用度量指标,根据幂指数方法建立了信息效用度量模型,并给出了应用实例。     

网络文学在大学生思想政治教育中的功能及其影响研究述要

随着网络的发展和普及,网络文学已深入人们的生活,大学生深受影响。网络文学作为思想政治教育的有效载体之一,它的影响给大学生思想政治教育工作注入了新的活力,同时也带来了巨大挑战。为了更直观地了解＂网络文学与大学生思想政治教育的交叉研究＂在国内的总体研究概况,笔者将对网络文学的研究成果做全面系统的梳理,提出进一步的思考,旨在为高校思想政治教育提供借鉴和参考。     

物理弱间断线上Ⅲ型斜交裂纹高阶渐近场

针对功能梯度材料层/均匀材料基体的物理弱间断线上斜交裂纹,通过分离变量和级数展开法构造位移函数,求得了裂纹尖端高阶渐近场。其界面裂纹尖端高阶渐近应力场具有与均匀材料相同的r-1/2的奇异性。由高阶项的表达式可知：材料非均匀性对应力场有显著影响。数学上,该解为此类问题的特征函数,能够描述此类材料各种含裂纹结构的整个应力场和位移场,当非均匀参数为零时,它可以退化到均匀材料反平面裂纹问题经典的W il-liam s解。