The impact of operational decisions on the design of salesforce incentives

When facing high levels of overstock inventories, firms often push their salesforce to work harder than usual to attract more demand, and one way to achieve that is to offer attractive incentives. However, most research on the optimal design of salesforce incentives ignores this dependency and assumes that operational decisions of production/inventory management are separable from design of salesforce incentives. We investigate this dependency in the problem of joint salesforce incentive design and inventory/production control. We develop a dynamic Principal‐Agent model with both Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection in which the principal is strategic and risk‐neutral but the agent is myopic and risk‐averse. We find the optimal joint incentive design and inventory control strategy, and demonstrate the impact of operational decisions on the design of a compensation package. The optimal strategy is characterized by a menu of inventory‐dependent salesforce compensation contracts. We show that the optimal compensation package depends highly on the operational decisions; when inventory levels are high, (a) the firm offers a more attractive contract and (b) the contract is effective in inducing the salesforce to work harder than usual. In contrast, when inventory levels are low, the firm can offer a less attractive compensation package, but still expect the salesforce to work hard enough. In addition, we show that although the inventory/production management and the design of salesforce compensation package are highly correlated, information acquisition through contract design allows the firm to implement traditional inventory control policies: a market‐based state‐dependent policy (with a constant base‐stock level when the inventory is low) that makes use of the extracted market condition from the agent is optimal. This work appears to be the first article on operations that addresses the important interplay between inventory/production control and salesforce compensation decisions in a dynamic setting. Our findings shed light on the effective integration of these two significant aspects for the successful operation of a firm. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 320–340, 2014     

基于数据站场的系统效能评估决策支持方法

随着信息技术的发展,系统信息量的提升给军事系统效能评估带来了新的问题。针对系统效能分析数据非线性、高维数、强耦合的特点,提出了一种基于数据站场技术的效能评估决策支持方法。通过数据恢复、约减、求精与重构操作,对评估数据进行了处理,并搭建了数据站场立方体,降低了数据间的依赖性,满足了不同层面系统分析的需求。以面向任务的网络化火控系统的为例,进行了系统效能评估、时效性评估和指标分析,从三个层次验证了方法的有效性与可行性。将数据挖掘技术应用到仿真系统效能评估决策中,获得了更广泛的应用。     

考虑弹体动态特性的机动效率约束导引律

针对考虑交会角和过载约束导引律在大机动时能量损失大的问题,提出一种考虑导弹机动效率的多约束制导律。应用最优二次型原理推导出考虑一阶弹体延迟的时变导引系数闭环次优制导形式,将导弹机动时刻阻力系数引入时变权系数,并通过迭代确定机动效率约束边界。将时变约束表示成剩余时间与弹体延迟时间的函数,代入制导指令,进行弹道仿真。结果表明,对于常值与机动目标,文中制导律与过载约束导引律同只考虑交会角约束的导引律相比,对目标均能实现末端弹道成型要求,而考虑机动效率的制导指令分配更为合理,在避免指令加速度饱和的同时有效降低了拦截末端速度损耗,提高制导精度与毁伤效果。且该制导律中时变权系数无须配平求解,在保证精度的同时极大地提高了迭代速度。     

大力推进新时代中国特色科技兴军

习主席站在时代发展与战略全局的高度,着眼军队建设全局,深刻阐述了科技兴军在强军征程中的重要作用,明确了科技兴军的举措抓手,丰富和发展了新时代党的强军思想理论体系。必须毫不动摇地坚持走中国特色科技兴军之路,为实现党在新时代的强军目标提供强有力的支撑。     

金属化聚丙烯膜脉冲电容器过载特性研究*

脉冲电容器作为爆磁压缩激励电流源的储能元件之一,通常要求单次可靠运行。正是由于单次运行,为脉冲电容器的过载工作提供了极大的可能。过载工作的电容器与额定电容器相比具有体积小、重量轻的优点,可实现爆磁压缩激励电流源的紧凑化。本文研究了不同温度下国产金属化聚丙烯膜脉冲电容器的过载特性,如过载运行的储能密度,放电电流及可靠度等。实验表明：在-45℃~60℃范围内过载运行这种电容器,其储能密度可达额定储能密度的1.8倍,同时在0.95的置信水平下,其过载运行的可靠度单侧置信下限为0.9,可以实现稳定可靠运行。     

Index policies for the routing of background jobs

Arriving (generic) jobs may be processed at one of several service stations, but only when no other (dedicated) jobs are waiting there. We consider the problem of how to route these incoming background jobs to make best use of the spare service capacity available at the stations. We develop an approximative approach to Whittle's proposal for restless bandits to obtain an index policy for routing. The indices concerned are increasing and nonlinear in the station workload. A numerical study testifies to the strong performance of the index policies developed. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Dynamic inventory and pricing models for competing retailers

We address infinite‐horizon models for oligopolies with competing retailers under demand uncertainty. We characterize the equilibrium behavior which arises under simple wholesale pricing schemes. More specifically, we consider a periodic review, infinite‐horizon model for a two‐echelon system with a single supplier servicing a network of competing retailers. In every period, each retailer faces a random demand volume, the distribution of which depends on his own retail price as well as those charged by possibly all competing retailers. We also derive various comparative statics results regarding the impact several exogenous system parameters (e.g., cost or distributional parameters) have on the equilibrium decisions of the retailers as well as their expected profits. We show that certain monotonicity properties, engrained in folklore as well as in known inventory models for centralized systems, may break down in decentralized chains under retailer competition. Our results can be used to optimize the aggregate profits in the supply chain (i.e., those of the supplier and all retailers) by implementing a specific wholesale pricing scheme. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

电磁发射超高速弹丸气动特性数值分析

采用数值计算方法研究了超高速弹丸的气动流场特性,重点分析了弹丸再入段的气动流场特性.利用风洞试验数据验证了S-A和k-ωSST湍流模型的预测精度,计算结果表明,在法向力预测上,两种湍流模型的预测精度较高,均在2％以内.在轴向力预测上,S-A湍流模型的预测精度较高,误差约为4.6％.当弹丸以大攻角再入时,弹丸横流效应较为...     

灾害应急反应建模与仿真

为了满足多智能体应急反应仿真的需求,首先对构建多智能体应急反应仿真模拟框架的复杂性进行了分析,在此基础上提出并设计了组件式仿真模拟框架.采用本体(Ontology)建模、语义网模型及产生式规则推理等理论方法构建了仿真模拟框架的场景建模模块、人员Agent建模模块等组件.最后对依照上述研究内容所开发的原型系统进行了测试,对测试结果进行了分析,结果表明该框架能够有效满足多智能体应急反应仿真的建模需求.     

起重机吊重摆角的产生机理与动态仿真研究

针对吊重二自由度摆角非线性动力学模型,研究了起重机吊重摆角的产生机理和摆角的影响因素。起重机小车和大车同时做加（减）速的复合运动时,产生吊重二自由度摆角,摆角的大小受起升绳长度和小车运行加（减）速度大小的影响。动态仿真表明：小车运行加（减）速度对摆角的影响比绳长度显著;小车起动和制动时,吊重做受迫摆动;当小车加（减）速度增大l倍时,吊重摆角约增大0．12rad,摆速约增大0．164rad／s;当绳长度增加2m时,摆角和摆速无明显变化,吊重自由摆动的周期约增加1．3s。