测量船中心机实时监控专家系统建造技术

测量船中心机实时监控专家系统应用于测量船中心机系统执行海上测量任务的时节，旨在提高整个系统的实时性和可靠性。本文围绕实时专家系统的时序性、时变性、时效性等特征，从系统设计与实现两个方面讨论建造该专家系统的一些关键技术。     

对流层散射信道传递时间信号的抖动抑制模型

对流层散射信道传递时间同步信号过程中,信道的多径效应及噪声会引起信号抖动。为抑制抖动、提高时间同步精度,引入经验模态分解和小波阈值组合的抖动抑制模型。组合抖动抑制模型中,首先根据经验模态分解原理对原始信号进行分解,然后利用小波阈值对分解得到的各分量进行处理,最终利用处理结果重构信号。为提高组合模型的抖动抑制效果和原始信号的保持能力,利用连续性好、柔和度高的阈值函数对小波阈值中的传统阈值函数进行改进。利用实测数据验证模型的结果表明,在抖动抑制和信号保留方面,组合模型较单一模型以及常用的Kalman模型优势明显。     

Shifting power,preventive logic,and the response of the target: Germany,Russia, and the First World War

If a declining state has incentives for preventive war, the rising state should have incentives to delay a confrontation until it is stronger. We develop the theoretical paradox and examine the July 1914 crisis. Why did Russia, rising relative to Germany, not adopt a buying-time strategy? We argue that although most Russian leaders hoped to avoid a confrontation, they feared that the failure to support Serbia would lead to a loss of Russian credibility and a significant setback to Russia’s position in the Balkans, one that could not easily be reversed, even with Russia’s expected increase in relative military power.     

防空武器系统仿真中的三维图形实时成像技术

图形图像技术在仿真中的应用除使之高度可视化外,更重要的是引入了“三维描述”的概念,扩大了“定量”     

限时图形系统的限时计算和渲染技术

在介绍了限时图形系统概念模型的基础上 ,指出限时渲染也是限时图形系统的一个基本特征 ,并从软、硬件两个方面对当今国内外采用的一些典型的提高实时图形渲染性能的技术和方法进行了明确的分类和阐述 ,提出了根据模型特点选用适当渲染技术的思想     

Expected waiting time rankings in extended machine-repair models

The present paper studies the relative magnitudes of expected waiting times in extended machine-repair models, when processing times are of two Erlang types. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 864–870, 1999     

Analysis of production lines with Coxian service times and no intermediate buffers

This paper uses the holding time model (HTM) method to derive an approximate analytic formula for the calculation of the mean throughput of a K-station production line with no buffers between any two successive stations. Service times follow the two-stage Coxian (C²) distribution at all stations. The paper provides a formula that relates the third moment of the service completion (or virtual service) time with the respective parameters of the service time, the repair time and the time to breakdown (the latter is assumed to follow the exponential distribution). In this way, it concludes that under certain conditions the two-stage Coxian distribution can be used to approximate any general distribution matching the first three moments of the service completion time distribution. The mean holding times (consisting of the service and blocking periods) of all stations of the line are obtained in an analytical form. Numerical results are provided for the mean throughput of lines with up to 20 stations. These results are shown to have a good accuracy compared against results obtained from the Markovian state method (for short lines) and results from simulation (for longer lines). © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 669–685, 1998     

Timely exposure of a secret project: Which activities to monitor?

A defender wants to detect as quickly as possible whether some attacker is secretly conducting a project that could harm the defender. Security services, for example, need to expose a terrorist plot in time to prevent it. The attacker, in turn, schedules his activities so as to remain undiscovered as long as possible. One pressing question for the defender is: which of the project's activities to focus intelligence efforts on? We model the situation as a zero‐sum game, establish that a late‐start schedule defines a dominant attacker strategy, and describe a dynamic program that yields a Nash equilibrium for the zero‐sum game. Through an innovative use of cooperative game theory, we measure the harm reduction thanks to each activity's intelligence effort, obtain insight into what makes intelligence effort more effective, and show how to identify opportunities for further harm reduction. We use a detailed example of a nuclear weapons development project to demonstrate how a careful trade‐off between time and ease of detection can reduce the harm significantly.     

视场角限制下导弹协同攻击导引律设计

为实现多枚导弹协同攻击目标,提出视场角限制下攻击时间角度控制导引律。通过在传统比例导引上增加两项偏置项,推导出一种新型攻击时间和角度控制的导引律,并用Lyapunov理论证明其稳定性。针对导弹大机动下视场角可能超过导引头视场角范围而丢失目标的问题,将用于角度控制的偏置项分为三个阶段,设计了导引头视场角限制下的导引过程。仿真结果表明：所设计的导引律可以将视场角限制在导引头视场角范围内,实现不同位置下的多枚导弹以指定角度同一时间攻击目标,达到导弹协同攻击的效果。     

非奇异快速终端滑模及动态面控制的轨迹跟踪制导律

针对飞行器跟踪预设轨迹的问题,提出非奇异快速终端滑模和角度约束的轨迹跟踪制导律。通过引入虚拟目标点,提出参考轨迹曲率半径的期望视线角约束条件,建立带有视线角约束并考虑自动驾驶仪动态特性的轨迹跟踪数学模型。为了保证在有限时间内跟踪预设轨迹并避免出现奇异问题,采用快速非奇异终端滑模和动态面控制方法进行制导律设计。推导出视线角误差和轨迹跟踪误差之间的数学关系,并利用Lyapunov稳定性准则证明轨迹跟踪误差最终有界任意小。与弹道成型轨迹跟踪制导律进行仿真对比,仿真结果表明所提出的制导律具有良好的跟踪性能及鲁棒性。