Nash bargaining over allocations in inventory pooling contracts

When facing uncertain demand, several firms may consider pooling their inventories leading to the emergence of two key contractual issues. How much should each produce or purchase for inventory purposes? How should inventory be allocated when shortages occur to some of the firms? Previously, if the allocations issue was considered, it was undertaken through evaluation of the consequences of an arbitrary priority scheme. We consider both these issues within a Nash bargaining solution (NBS) cooperative framework. The firms may not be risk neutral, hence a nontransferable utility bargaining game is defined. Thus the physical pooling mechanism itself must benefit the firms, even without any monetary transfers. The firms may be asymmetric in the sense of having different unit production costs and unit revenues. Our assumption with respect to shortage allocation is that a firm not suffering from a shortfall, will not be affected by any of the other firms' shortages. For two risk neutral firms, the NBS is shown to award priority on all inventory produced to the firm with higher ratio of unit revenue to unit production cost. Nevertheless, the arrangement is also beneficial for the other firm contributing to the total production. We provide examples of Uniform and Bernoulli demand distributions, for which the problem can be solved analytically. For firms with constant absolute risk aversion, the agreement may not award priority to any firm. Analytically solvable examples allow additional insights, e.g. that higher risk aversion can, for some problem parameters, cause an increase in the sum of quantities produced, which is not the case in a single newsvendor setting. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Technical note: Reexamination of all‐or‐none inspection policies in a supply chain with endogenous product quality

This note studies the optimal inspection policies in a supply chain in which a manufacturer purchases components from a supplier but has no direct control of component quality. The manufacturer uses an inspection policy and a damage cost sharing contract to encourage the supplier to improve the component quality. We find that all‐or‐none inspection policies are optimal for the manufacturer if the supplier's share of the damage cost is larger than a threshold; otherwise, the manufacturer should inspect a fraction of a batch. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Praying for Rain? Water Scarcity and the Duration and Outcomes of Civil Wars

Recent anecdotal evidence from the civil wars in Somalia and Yemen suggest that water scarcity may shape the dynamics of civil wars. While a considerable body of research has examined the connection between water scarcity (such as low rainfall) and the onset of civil war, very little research has examined how water scarcity may shape the duration and outcomes of civil wars. Looking specifically at rainfall, this paper argues that changes in access to water play a key role in the duration of civil wars. As rainfall declines, there is a reduction in resources available to both the government and the rebel group, leading to a stalemate in fighting. Furthermore, this paper argues that declines in rainfall are felt more acutely by rebel groups who seek to challenge the government through conventional warfare. This paper tests these propositions using hazard models. The results provide robust support for the propositions.     

飞机运动态势对航空深弹入水点散布影响分析

航空自导深弹具有结构简单、可靠性高、不受水文条件限制等特点,而且还具有自导捕获和跟踪目标能力,对于提高航空兵部队反潜能力具有重要作用。反潜机投放高度、投放速度等运动态势关系到使用航空自导深弹对目标实施准确打击。针对航空自导鱼雷攻潜实际过程,建立其入水点的散布误差模型和空中弹道模型,并仿真分析反潜机投弹高度、投弹速度对航空自导深弹入水点的影响。     

基于电容式噪声传感器的信号调理电路设计

在航空航天的飞行器遥测试验中,大推力火箭和导弹飞行时,由燃气射流引起的噪声会对飞行器的结构以及载荷造成巨大的危害。电容式噪声传感器由于其频率响应范围宽,被广泛应用于飞行试验中。电容式传感器工作时需要用恒压源供电,且其采集的信号受到外界干扰较大,输出电压值不满足大多数模数芯片转换要求。针对以上问题,设计了恒压源供电模块和隔直分压电路、低通滤波电路等调理模块,使其最终输出电压范围在0~2.5 V,满足模数转换芯片的要求。该噪声传感器的信号调理电路可靠性高,已经成功应用于飞行器发射试验中。     

非对称通气空泡多相流场特性研究

通气空泡的非对称介质分布将影响其水动力特性,继而影响空泡稳定控制,目前对其流动特性的认识较为局限。为揭示非对称通气空泡的流动机理,基于循环水洞实验及数值仿真开展了多相流场特性研究。结果表明：非对称流动导致空泡形成非对称沾湿区,依据流动介质的不同,非对称沾湿区可分为透明气相区、水气混合区及沾湿区。水气混合边界由底端母线向顶端母线发展过程中,滞止高压减小,空泡厚度增加,液体进入空泡内部方式从主要由轴向进入转化为主要由周向进入,同时水气混合物在来流作用下逐渐聚集,水气混合区面积随之增大。随着空泡闭合点逐渐靠近顶端母线,沿周向流动的液体层发展至顶端母线,顶端母线处则形成低速、高压、水气掺混区,湍流特性增强,并伴有大量细碎空泡涡的脱落。     

Rolling‐horizon replenishment: Policies and performance analysis

We consider a rolling‐horizon (RH) replenishment modeling framework under which a buyer can update demand information and inventory status, modify order quantities committed previously, place an advanced order for a new period at the end of the RH, and move along in time seamlessly. We show that the optimal order policy for the two‐period RH problem is a dual‐threshold type for updating period(s) plus a base‐stock type for the advanced order. We provide analytical formulas and algorithms to compute the optimal thresholds and the optimal base‐stock level exactly. With our analytical results and numerical procedures, we demonstrate the significant value of RH replenishment in matching supplies to demands more closely. We also show that with RH updating (flexibility), the value of additional demand information beyond the RH diminishes quickly. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

我国消防服务供给方式的经济学思考

消防服务在我国社会生活中已越来越凸显其重要地位。依据公共物品理论,在分析消防服务的经济学特性及供给困境的基础上,提出了一些在我国经济转型条件下有效提供消防服务的思路。     

住宅小区消防给水设计问题探讨

住宅小区消防给水设计不同于城市给水设计,也有别于普通建筑给水设计,在一个住宅小区内可以考虑消防给水系统设施的共享,建立区域消防给水系统。以两个住宅小区的消防给水设计为例,从水泵结合器的设置,消防水泵、屋顶消防水箱以及自动喷洒给水系统的共用等方面对区域消防给水设计进行了讨论。     

水雾粒径对灭火效果影响的模拟研究

针对B类火灾,应用火灾模拟软件FDS对庚烷液体可燃物燃烧进行模拟,探讨细水雾粒径对B类火灾的灭火效果,得出粒径为150μm的细水雾为扑灭B类火灾的最佳粒径。