舰艇编队协同作战的空中目标威胁评估研究

从系统分析舰艇编队协同作战的空中目标威胁评估问题入手,深入研究了协同作战环境下编队空中目标威胁评估的基本过程。在此基础上,针对编队协同决策的特点,建立了基于两层决策的协同作战环境下编队空中目标威胁评估模型,从而提出了舰艇编队协同作战的空中目标威胁评估方法。最后,通过实例说明了所提方法的有效性。     

基于满足率的随舰备件配置方案

针对满足率只有统计定义的问题,从不同角度研究了备件满足率的概率性质,给出了满足率的两种概率模型,揭示了满足率的内涵和实际工程意义。在此基础上,给出了系统备件保障满足率的概率定义,建立了以系统备件满足率为约束、备件总重量最小为目标的随舰备件配置优化模型,研究了优化模型的边际效益算法。实例分析表明：该方法为合理制定舰艇随舰备件保障方案提供了决策依据。     

Choosing arrival process models for service systems: Tests of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process

Service systems such as call centers and hospital emergency rooms typically have strongly time‐varying arrival rates. Thus, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) is a natural model for the arrival process in a queueing model for performance analysis. Nevertheless, it is important to perform statistical tests with service system data to confirm that an NHPP is actually appropriate, as emphasized by Brown et al. [8]. They suggested a specific statistical test based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistic after exploiting the conditional‐uniform (CU) property to transform the NHPP into a sequence of i.i.d. random variables uniformly distributed on [0,1] and then performing a logarithmic transformation of the data. We investigate why it is important to perform the final data transformation and consider what form it should take. We conduct extensive simulation experiments to study the power of these alternative statistical tests. We conclude that the general approach of Brown et al. [8] is excellent, but that an alternative data transformation proposed by Lewis [22], drawing upon Durbin [10], produces a test of an NHPP test with consistently greater power. We also conclude that the KS test after the CU transformation, without any additional data transformation, tends to be best to test against alternative hypotheses that primarily differ from an NHPP only through stochastic and time dependence. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 66–90, 2014     

警用装备综合保障效能的熵权-双基点法评估

为实现对警用装备综合保障效能的定量评估,构建了包括战备完好性、保障资源适量性、保障经济性、保障时效性、保障信息化、保障精确性、保障弹性、保障综合性8个评估指标的综合保障效能评估体系,建立了基于熵权-双基点方法的综合效能评估模型,通过编程计算对某警用装备的5种综合保障方案进行了定量评估,根据效能优属度确立了较为优化的综合保障方案。该模型克服了主观赋权的缺陷,可以为警用装备综合保障方案的优选提供科学依据。     

一种用于机电产品测试性设计的传感器优选MINLP模型

在单故障假设条件下,考虑了传感器的失效概率和设备的故障率,提出一种以故障检测率和故障隔离率为约束条件的降低传感器费用和失效概率的混合整数非线性规划(MINLP)模型,从而为机电产品测试性设计中传感器选择问题提供了一种可行和有效的解决方法,并进行了案例验证,说明了该方法的有效性。     

Dual sourcing: Responsive hedging against correlated supply and demand uncertainty

This article analyzes dual sourcing decisions under stochastically dependent supply and demand uncertainty. A manufacturer faces the trade‐off between investing in unreliable but high‐margin offshore supply and in reliable but low‐margin local supply, where the latter allows for production that is responsively contingent on the actual demand and offshore supply conditions. Cost thresholds for both types of supply determine the optimal resource allocation: single offshore sourcing, single responsive sourcing, or dual sourcing. Relying on the concept of concordance orders, we study the effects of correlation between supply and demand uncertainty. Adding offshore supply to the sourcing portfolio becomes more favorable under positive correlation, since offshore supply is likely to satisfy demand when needed. Selecting responsive capacity under correlated supply and demand uncertainty is not as straightforward, yet we establish the managerially relevant conditions under which responsive capacity either gains or loses in importance. Our key results are extended to the broad class of endogenous supply uncertainty developed by Dada et al. [Manufact Serv Operat Mange 9 (2007), 9–32].© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

对当前消防部队信息化建设的思考

目前消防部队信息化建设取得了初步成效,但与部队需求还存在一定差距,存在着对信息化建设认识不够高、信息化应用不深入、专业人才偏少、人员素质偏低、投入资金不足等问题,并针对存在的问题提出了解决对策。     

恒压变频控制设备在消防水灭火系统中的应用

分析了传统消防水灭火系统存在易锈死难改造等问题,介绍了恒压变频供水系统的基本工作原理和设计思路,论证了恒压变频供水系统在消防水灭火系统中应用的可行性,研究了将恒压变频控制设备应用到消防水灭火系统中应注意的几个问题,为改进消防水灭火系统提供了又一方法。     

浅析《孙子兵法》中的战机思想

《孙子兵法》中蕴含着丰富而深刻的战机思想。不战全胜的“胜机”思想、立足不败的“待机”思想、变中求胜的“创机”思想、兵贵神速的“夺机”思想和因情用势的“握机”思想等内容,是《孙子兵法》战机思想的核心与精华。     

基于灰色聚类的野战饮食装备技术保障能力评价

采用一种定性和定量相结合的层次分析法和灰色聚类评价模型,通过案例评价分析,得出现阶段某部队野战饮食装备技术保障能力各指标及综合指标所属等级,针对性提出“培养高素质保障人才”,“提高装备品质,完善器材设施”,“加快信息化建设”,“加强费用一效能管理”等措施,获得了比较满意的效果,证明了灰色聚类评价模型在野战饮食装备技术保障能力应用中的有效性。