时变结构多阶段任务系统的可靠度研究

大型复杂系统完成规定任务往往涉及多个阶段,并且在不同的任务阶段,系统通常由其各级子系统、单元以不同的功能组合形式构成,因而,其可靠性逻辑结构(框图)也随时间的改变而改变。当连续多阶段系统不能分阶段单独处理时,将引出所谓的时段延续相关性问题。本文重点研究了时变结构多阶段任务系统的时段延续相关性问题,对典型时变结构的可靠度进行了分析,提出了有效的解决方法并建立了相应的数学模型。研究成果已应用于某大型测控系统的可靠性分析任务中     

Reliability and mean residual life functions of coherent systems in an active redundancy

In this article, the reliability and the mean residual life (MRL) functions of a system with active redundancies at the component and system levels are investigated. In active redundancy at the component level, the original and redundant components are working together and lifetime of the system is determined by the maximum of lifetime of the original components and their spares. In the active redundancy at the system level, the system has a spare, and the original and redundant systems work together. The lifetime of such a system is then the maximum of lifetimes of the system and its spare. The lifetimes of the original component and the spare are assumed to be dependent random variables. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 64: 19–28, 2017     

维护条件下产品寿命分布规律分析

为了掌握维护条件下产品寿命分布规律,进一步解释其失效特性,从维护条件下产品性能状态变化角度出发,结合累积失效理论,利用复合Poisson过程建立了可靠性模型,得到了该条件下产品在线寿命分布模型。在此基础上,建立了维护条件下产品总体寿命分布模型,并利用偏度-峰度系数和贴近度分析,对维护条件下产品在线寿命分布和总体寿命分布规律进行了数值计算,解释了工程产品在线往往具有集中失效,而总体又具有随机失效的特性。以水泵转子为研究对象,通过数值分析,较好地描述了其定期维护条件下的可靠度和寿命分布,进一步验证了模型的可行性。     

状态维修下通指装备可用度评估

随着监测诊断技术的发展,状态维修在通指装备维修中应用范围越来越广。根据系统模块之间的并联供求关系,以系统可用度求解为目标,建立多态串并联可控系统可用度精确求解模型。在对模型进行求解的过程中运用发生函数算法,对算法的运用范围进行拓展。实例结果证明评估模型的精确性,对于装备状态评估具有更强的指导性。     

基于不可信证据源与冲突重分配的证据合成方法

针对D-S证据理论在高冲突下失效的问题,在比较修正原始证据源和重新分配冲突两种方法的基础上,提出一种新的合成规则,新方法用可信度修正证据的同时,把全局冲突分为两部分,并依据"全局冲突在全局分配、局部冲突在局部分配"的原则对冲突进行细化分配。通过仿真分析,并与其他方法比较,新的合成方法能更好地融合冲突证据,收敛速度快,具有较强的抗干扰能力。     

Reliability bounds for the NBUE distributions

In this paper, we study upper and lower bounds on the reliability in new better than used in expectation (NBUE) life distribution class with fixed first two moments. By a constructive proof, we determine the upper bounds on the reliability analytically in different regions and show that these bounds are sharp. For the lower bounds, similar results are obtained except in one region. For that region, a conjecture is given for further study. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 781–797, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10035     

稳态随机过程激励下基于首次超越破坏的结构优化设计

把结构系统动力可靠性分析与最优化设计结合起来 ,以结构系统的最小质量为目标函数 ,给出了考虑在平稳随机过程激励下多自由度线性系统总的可靠性的结构优化设计方法。运用谱分析理论 ,推导了结构系统在平稳随机过程激励下响应的统计特征 ,同时结合首次超越破坏的Possion模型计算结构系统的可靠性 ,最终采用广义乘子法得到结构系统设计变量的最优值。计算结果表明该方法是可行的     

Rare‐event component importance for the consecutive‐k system

Various indices of component importance with respect to system reliability have been proposed. The most popular one is the Birnbaum importance. In particular, a special case called uniform Birnbaum importance in which all components have the same reliability p has been widely studied for the consecutive‐k system. Since it is not easy to compare uniform Birnbaum importance, the literature has looked into the case p = ½, p → 1, or p ≥ ½. In this paper, we look into the case p → 0 to complete the spectrum of examining Birnbaum importance over the whole range of p. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 159–166, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.10001     

并联系统可靠性分配的模糊层次分析法

综合考虑影响系统可靠性分配的定性因素和定量因素、影响因素的模糊性以及系统的结构组成.利用层次分析法可集定性与定量分析于一体,从而确定出各影响因素对可靠性分配的权重向量;模糊数学理论进而确定出分系统之间可靠性水平的相对比重;进行模糊变换最终进行并联系统的可靠性分配.结合实例分析,对并联系统运用模糊理论和层次分析法相结合的方法进行可靠性分配科学、合理,便于工程应用.     

Balancing a one‐way corridor capacity and safety‐oriented reliability: A stochastic optimization approach for metro train timetabling

In urban rail transit systems of large cities, the headway and following distance of successive trains have been compressed as much as possible to enhance the corridor capacity to satisfy extremely high passenger demand during peak hours. To prevent train collisions and ensure the safety of trains, a safe following distance of trains must be maintained. However, this requirement is subject to a series of complex factors, such as the uncertain train braking performance, train communication delay, and driver reaction time. In this paper, we propose a unified mathematical framework to analyze the safety‐oriented reliability of metro train timetables with different corridor capacities, that is, the train traffic density, and determine the most reliable train timetable for metro lines in an uncertain environment. By employing a space‐time network representation in the formulations, the reliability‐based train timetabling problem is formulated as a nonlinear stochastic programming model, in which we use 0‐1 variables to denote the time‐dependent velocity and position of all involved trains. Several reformulation techniques are developed to obtain an equivalent mixed integer programming model with quadratic constraints (MIQCP) that can be solved to optimality by some commercial solvers. To improve the computational efficiency of the MIQCP model, we develop a dual decomposition solution framework that decomposes the primal problem into several sets of subproblems by dualizing the coupling constraints across different samples. An exact dynamic programming combined with search space reduction strategies is also developed to solve the exact optimal solutions of these subproblems. Two sets of numerical experiments, which involve a relatively small‐scale case and a real‐world instance based on the operation data of the Beijing subway Changping Line are implemented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.