Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949

Using a new set of data from Greek Army sources, US military archives, and Communist Party documents, the paper provides a quantitative analysis of the armed confrontation that took place in Greece during 1946–1949. A dynamic Lotka–Volterra model is estimated, pointing to the existence of a conflict trap that explains the prolongation of the civil war and its dire consequences for the country. A regional analysis finds that the mobilization of guerrilla forces was crucially affected by morphology and the local persecutions of political rivals. Using neoclassical growth-accounting, the economic cost of the conflict is estimated to surpass an annual GDP, in line with similar findings in contemporary civil wars. The same framework is employed to assess the outcome in counterfactual situations discussed in this paper.     

On the contribution of defense innovation to China’s economic growth

As the most knowledge-intensive industrial sectors, China’s defense industries are developing very fast. The present paper will explore the contribution of China’s defense innovation to its economic growth. Cobb–Douglas production function, integrating defense and non-defense stock in knowledge, is applied during the course. In addition, an input–output analysis of defense equipment procurement was done. Positive effect of China’s defense innovation on economic growth has been revealed by comparing the results from the two methods. And some suggestions are made to strengthen the effect.     

基于聚合模型的高轨预警卫星威胁评估

高轨预警卫星威胁评估是导弹作战指挥辅助决策的重要环节,可以为指挥员的太空目标选择提供依据。在分析其威胁要素特征的基础上,提出了采用“聚合模型”开展威胁评估的方法,并给出了威胁评估步骤。通过分析美国高轨预警卫星的工作模式及作战流程,选取了扫描探测、凝视跟踪及外部等三个方面的关键性威胁要素,并构建了各要素的评价函数模型。基于上下层威胁要素之间关系的不同,给出了两种不同的聚合模型,采用该模型分析了所选要素之间的聚合关系,得到了高轨预警卫星威胁评估模型。最后通过实例计算,验证了该评估方法的可行性和实用性。     

一种新的基本概率函数构建方法及应用

针对Dempster-Shafer(D-S)证据推理中基本概率赋值函数的构造问题,基于模糊聚类分析给出了一种新的构建方法.将它应用到雷达目标识别的仿真实验中,并与灰关联法相比较,结果表明该方法切实可行,不仅提高了基本概率赋值的准确性和稳定性,而且利用了数据的结构信息,有效缓解了证据的冲突.     

Bernoulli抵消策略的负顾客的M/G/1排队系统

负顾客的排队模型是排队论近年来的新兴分支。文中引入了带有B ernou lli抵消策略的负顾客的M/G/1排队模型,即到达的负顾客以概率p抵消队首正在接受服务的正顾客,以1-p的概率抵消队尾的正顾客,利用补充变量法,状态转移法和L变换,最后得到系统稳态队长的概率母函数。     

重力扰动对SINS水平姿态的影响

为研究动基座下捷联惯导系统(Strapdown Inertial Navigation System,SINS)水平姿态误差角与水平重力扰动间的关系,推导了南北方向、东西方向匀速直线运动时,SINS纯惯性解算的水平姿态误差与水平重力扰动间的传递函数,并分析了传递函数的零极点分布;推导了组合导航模式下,水平姿态误差角与水...     

米波段全固态宽带大功率放大器

本文介绍了一种高性能的米波段全固态宽带大功率放大器,讨论了设计中的有关理论和实际问题。该放大器在８０ＭＨｚ至２１０ＭＨｚ的频率范围内功率增益大于５０ｄＢ,功率波动小于１ｄＢ,输出连续波功率１００Ｗ,效率达４０％～５０％呢。本放大器可用于通信、导航、雷达、电子对抗等设备中作功率发射用。     

关于纯方位目标运动分析的讨论─—最优化模型及模拟计算

以最优化的观点给出了数种有关纯方位估计目标运动要素的数学模型,并对这些模型进行了模拟计算和比较,找出了几种较好的模型,这些模型的计算满足工程的实时性,精度也满足工程要求。     

几何凸集中一个递归关系的建立与求解

几何凸集中递归关系的建立是求解问题的关键。本文对一个定理中递归关系的建立给出了容易理解的详细表述,然后利用生成函数法求其解。     

引信保险机构状态信号的提取与处理

根据引信保险机构系统特性分析,选择驻极体传声器作传感器,从而获得引信保险机构的状态信号。经多级高、低通滤波和放大后,由单片机和标准判据进行比较,完成引信保险机构的状态检测。