加强和改进国防动员潜力统计调查工作的思考

文章从对陆军作战行动特点分析入手,以跨越系列演习为参照,着力研究破解制约提高战时陆军部队作战行动管控的瓶颈,为切实抓好陆军部队作战行动管控提供参考。研究出陆军结构调整后,宜采用整体联动管控、一体联合管控、法制化管控,以提升力量体系管控成效。     

军事院校推动国家安全教育研究

提出互联网+时代军队院校面临与军队新型作战能力培养有关的国家安全时代课题,从整合新媒体网络资源、依托校园文化平台、构建国家安全教育体系三方面进行了对策分析,重点探索与新军事变革密切相关的"文化安全、军事话语传播、地缘政治"等议题,以学术活动的顶层设计将国家安全教育融入军事院校学员具有中国特色的军事理论创新。     

Responsibility in Complex Conflicts: An Afghan Case

This paper discusses soldiers’ moral responsibility in today’s complex conflicts. The point of departure is the increased focus on soldiers as moral decision-makers in war, illustrated by the introduction of core values in the Norwegian Armed Forces. Responsibility is one of these core values, but it is not clear exactly how we should understand responsibility. I use a case where a group of Norwegian soldiers in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) sought the cooperation of a group of mujahedeen to solve the military mission of establishing security. As confidence between the parties grew, the soldiers became horrified witnesses to a practice of bacha bazi, where a young boy is dressed up for entertainment and sexual abuse. This situation gives reason to question the limits of role responsibility, the status of soldiers’ legitimacy, and the challenges of making morally sound judgments in a multicultural context. The discussion demonstrates that, even if there are restrictions on the soldiers’ freedom to act, a responsibility reaching beyond or extending their role should be recognized as part of the moral reality of modern soldiers.     

Beyond the state: reconceptualising African security in the 21st century

Confronted with myriad security challenges, African states and the much-vaunted peace and security architecture of the African Union (AU) has proven not to be up to the challenge. Indeed, this is implicitly acknowledged by the AU itself if one considers the creation of such security structures as the African Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which exists outside its peace and security architecture. This paper argues for a radical rethink of security structures on the African continent – one in which state structures of security coexist with newer forms of security actors, including private military companies (PMCs), community movements and the business sector. Whilst this shift in security actors is already happening on the ground, policymakers need to embrace this new reality.     

When the military become a security and political threat: Zimbabwean army generals in electoral politics

The military poses an ongoing threat to modern democratic rule in some African countries, especially in the Zimbabwean context. This paper reveals the ways in which Zimbabwe National Army (ZNA) generals have played a political role in the Zimbabwean elections, an issue which is both a political threat and a security threat to the state. It is argued that the ways in which ZNA generals engage in the political process goes against Section 208(2) of the constitution of Zimbabwe, which summarily states that the military must be apolitical. In substantiating this argument, the paper presents and analyses various public speeches made by army generals. It is contended that the army generals’ support of the Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and President Robert Mugabe has to be understood as a ‘mutual accommodation’, i.e. the generals are offered privileges in return for the political protection of the ruling regime which negatively impacts the security of the vote.     

The Value of Respect: What Does it Mean for an Army?

The Australian Army has adopted “respect” as a new addition to the existing trio of values, “courage, initiative and teamwork.” This article explores what respect may mean as an army value. The significance of respect surrounding two incidents involving Australian Defence Force personnel while on duty in Afghanistan is considered. The first is the so-called “green on blue” attack by an Afghan National Army soldier killing three Australian soldiers on 29 August 2012. The second concerns allegations of mutilation of suspected Afghan insurgents’ corpses by soldiers attached to an Australian Special Forces Unit on 28 April 2013. The incidents have resulted in internal military investigations: in the second incident, with a view to possible prosecution for breach of the law of armed conflict and related disciplinary offences; and in the case of the green on blue attack, leading to a civilian coronial inquest. This article discusses the training and modelling of behaviour required to instil such a value as respect.     

改进IAHP-CIM模型的雷达组网探测能力评估方法

针对雷达组网探测能力的评估问题,采用鱼骨图法对影响雷达组网探测能力的多种因素进行梳理,得到结构层次清晰的指标评价体系。采用改进的区间层次分析—控制区间和记忆模型对该指标体系进行评估,具体方法是:运用区间层次分析法构造区间判断矩阵;利用蛙跳算法求解区间判断矩阵中满足最小一致性的确定性矩阵;利用控制区间和记忆模型来确定各指标的风险概率,实现指标体系的评估。以具体的案例为对象进行仿真实验,结果表明,所提评估方法有效,评估结论相对客观、可信,对雷达组网探测能力评估具有一定参考价值,从而为雷达组网的优化部署奠定良好基础。     

Indications and warning in Belgium: Brussels is not Delphi

The terrorist attacks in France and Belgium of 2015–2016 that occurred while these countries were in a heightened state of alert raise questions about indications and warning methodology as well as effectiveness of the blanket-protection deployment of security services assisted even by the military. Response and perhaps even more anticipation may require strategic rethinking in light of the predatory attacks that target the most vulnerable spots of the public space. This study looks at threat analysis in Belgium as conducted through her intelligence fusion centre Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis (CUTA)?????? since its inception in 2006. With a special focus on what is known, at the time of writing, about the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels, this study hopes to put into context how the system (mal)functions and will also consider the preventive measures that respond to the threat, and the international aspects which have implications far beyond Belgian borders. Therefore, a case is made for not just a Belgian homeland security framework, but one that fits into an EU-wide security concept.     

伞翼无人机线性自抗扰高度控制

针对伞翼无人机参数不确定性和复杂环境干扰敏感的问题,提出一种伞翼无人机线性自抗扰(Linear Active Disturbance Rejection Control,LADRC)高度控制方法。建立伞翼无人机8自由度飞行动力学模型,并引入风场和降雨模型以更加准确地模拟真实飞行环境。基于LADRC确定总体控制架构,设计线性扩张状态观测器对所有扰动进行估计,并引入误差反馈率在控制中实时补偿。使用该控制方法在多种扰动工况下进行伞翼无人机高度控制仿真实验。仿真结果表明,基于LADRC的高度控制方法能够有效克服内扰和外扰的影响,实现高精度高度控制;与传统PID控制效果相比,LADRC控制器具有更好的抗扰能力和鲁棒性。     

The human consequences of foreign military intervention

The empirical international conflict literature has given much recent attention to interstate armed force’s impact on human well-being. While empirical research has advanced our understanding of the phenomenon considerably, we argue that one conclusion that many studies have reached is preliminary. Some recent research contends that only full-scale war, and not force short of war, has a discernable impact on human welfare or physical quality of life (PQOL). We develop theory on one type of force short of war, large-scale foreign military intervention (FMI), and its potential effects on PQOL. Using interrupted time series and panel corrected standard error methodologies, we find that from 1960 to 2005 large-scale FMI had a statistically and substantively significant impact on the PQOL of populations in 106 developing countries. The specific effect that this type of armed force has depended in large part on the regime type of the target country.