Kazakhstan's Nuclear Decision Making, 1991–92

This article examines Kazakhstani nuclear decision making from December 1991 to May 1992. The study is based on unique archival data and reveals how Kazakhstan's policy makers solved a nuclear dilemma that the nation faced in its first years of independence. The article reconstructs the internal policy-making process behind the decision made by President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his circle of advisors to accept non-nuclear status. The author argues that Almaty elaborated a deliberately ambivalent strategy toward the republic's nuclear status with the aim of maximizing the state's strategic interests. The article reviews external pressures affecting Nazarbayev's course of action and discusses policy options articulated during this period.     

Special Section: Nuclear Stability In South Asia

The question of nuclear stability in South Asia is a subject of both academic and policy significance. It is the only region in the world that has three, contiguous nuclear-armed states: India, the People's Republic of China, and Pakistan. It is also freighted with unresolved border disputes. To compound matters, all three states are now modernizing their nuclear forces and have expressed scant interest in any form of regional arms control. These issues and developments constitute the basis of this special section, which explores the problems and prospects of nuclear crisis stability in the region.     

Strategic “defensivism” and post-reset blues: US–Russian nuclear arms reductions,missile defenses and minimum deterrence

US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy may be moving, by design and by inadvertence, toward a posture of strategic “defensivism”. Strategic “defensivism” emphasizes the overlapping and reinforcing impact of: (1) reductions in US, Russian and possibly other strategic nuclear forces, possibly down to the level of “minimum deterrence,” (2) deployment of improved strategic and/or theater antimissile defenses for the US, NATO allies and other partners; and (3) additional reliance on conventional military forces for some missions hitherto preferentially assigned to nuclear weapons. This article deals with the first two of these aspects only: the interaction between missile defenses and offensive force reductions in US–Russian strategy and policy. The findings are that stable deterrence as between the USA and Russia is possible at lower than New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty levels, but reductions below 1000 deployed long-range weapons for each state, toward a true minimum deterrent posture, will require multilateral as opposed to bilateral coordination of arms limitations. Missile defenses might provide some denial capability against light attacks by states with small arsenals, but they still fall short of meaningful damage limitation as between powers capable of massive nuclear strikes.     

Pakistan’s nuclear weapons: how safe is safe enough? Transparency versus opacity

Due to expanding and increasing religious extremism and terrorism coupled with political instability in Pakistan, most western observers believe that Pakistan's nuclear weapons are not secure and could be taken over by terrorists. This would have adverse implications for the region and for global peace, especially for the security of USA and Europe. This article argues that this perception is based on a flawed understanding and knowledge of how Pakistan's command and control setup has evolved and operates. Pakistan's nuclear weapons are as safe as any other state's nuclear weapons. Pakistan has also been active in supporting and participating in global efforts to improve nuclear safety and security. Over the years, Pakistan has been quite open in sharing information regarding how it is improving its command and control system with western governments as well as scholars. This article argues that the steps Pakistan has taken to secure its nuclear weapons are adequate and that Pakistan would continue to further strengthen these measures; however, it is the expanding religious extremism, terrorism and anti-Americanism in the country which make the international perception of Pakistan extremely negative and then seep into the perception of Pakistan's nuclear weapons safety and security.     

现代战争计划的设计

现代战争的战争形态和作战样式发生了巨大改变,传统战争计划的制定难以适应新的作战指挥方式。为提高作战指挥的时效性和作战决策的正确性,对现代战争的战争计划的设计要求和设计流程进行了分析,总结了需要解决的关键技术,对深入开展战争计划的设计研究具有一定的启示。     

基于AD与IRMA的装备体系设计方法

论文综合集成AD方法与IRMA方法,构建了一种从装备体系的任务需求出发确定初始装备体系组成方案的方法。基于该方法得到的装备体系组成方案便于扩展、改进和升级。     

航天侦察情报保障能力需求产生系统设计

开发航天侦察情报能力需求产生系统是实现需求论证工程化的重要环节,是提高装备需求论证质量与效率的有效手段。通过对航天侦察情报能力需求系统特点和功能需求进行分析,明确了系统设计框架;设计了软件系统功能结构和数据库模型,为航天侦察情报保障能力需求产生提供了技术支撑。     

基于实数编码遗传算法的超宽带波形设计

采用实数编码的遗传算法对超宽带(UWB)波形进行了独特设计。以正弦高斯脉冲作为基函数,提出了一种新的适应度函数表示方法,应用此方法设计出了更符合美国联邦通信委员会(FCC)提出的辐射掩蔽特性要求的脉冲波形,并对设计脉冲进行了链路预算。仿真结果表明:采用实数编码的遗传算法优化设计得到的超宽带波形效果好且仿真时间复杂度低;与随机组合脉冲相比,设计出的脉冲在信号传输性能方面更具优势。     

某自行火炮全弹道多学科优化设计

为提高某自行火炮弹丸的杀伤效能,寻求该火炮全弹道设计参数间更优的匹配关系,并缩短全弹道设计周期,根据其包含的内弹道、外弹道和终点效应3个分学科之间的耦合关系,建立自行火炮全弹道多学科优化设计模型。以射程最大、杀伤面积最大为优化目标,进行全弹道优化设计。与单目标优化方法对比,多目标优化有效提高了该火炮弹道的综合性能,避免了单个目标优化时其他目标劣化的现象。