一种寿命分布类——剩余寿命按凸序递减类

在前人研究的寿命分布类的基础上 ,给出一种新的寿命分布类的定义 ,并研究了其有关的性质 (主要是封闭性质 )。     

装甲装备修理对象修理工作量的分布模型及应用

通过论述当今典型军队战时修理机构任务的划分,给出了装甲装备修理对象按照修理工作量和按照修理时间分布的2种模型,结合俄陆军各级修理机构修理时限的划分,计算得到了典型装甲装备的技术故障和战损产生的修理对象在各级修理机构的概率分布,为开展战损研究提供了一条新途径,对提高技术保障方案的准确性有积极作用。     

The value of losing control: Competition in markets for complements

When selling complementary products, manufacturers can often benefit from considering the resulting cross‐market interdependencies. Although using independent retailers makes it difficult to internalize these positive externalities, the ensuing double marginalization can mitigate within‐market competition. We use standard game theoretic analysis to determine optimal distribution channel strategies (through independent retailers or integrated) for competing manufacturers who participate in markets for complements. Our results suggest that a firm's optimal channel choice is highly dependent on its competitive positioning. A firm with a competitive advantage in terms of product characteristics (customer preferences) or production capabilities (cost) might benefit from selling through company‐controlled stores, allowing coordinated pricing across the two markets, whereas a less competitive firm might be better off using independent channel intermediaries to mitigate price competition. We consider two scenarios depending on whether the two firms make their distribution channel decisions sequentially or simultaneously. Although firms are unlikely to make such decisions at exactly the same instant, the simultaneous model also serves as a proxy for the scenario where firms decide sequentially, but where they cannot observe each other's strategic channel choices. For the sequential case, we find that the sequence of entry can have tremendous impact on the two firms'profits; whereas in some cases, the first mover can achieve substantially higher profits, we find that when the two markets are of sufficiently different size and only loosely related, a firm with a competitive advantage might be better off as a follower. Interestingly, our results suggest that, when the markets are of rather similar size, both firms are better off if they enter the industry sequentially. In those cases, the first entrant has incentive to reveal its planned channel strategies, and the follower has incentive to seek out and consider this information. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

基于加速性能退化的雷达电源板可靠性评估

评估雷达系统可靠性时,失效寿命难以获得,性能退化数据成为评估可靠性的重要信息。对其中器件级信息充足,板级、分系统级、系统级现场试验信息缺乏,而收集这些部分的退化数据仍需较长时间,以雷达某一部分的整体为研究对象进行加速退化试验,验证是否存在累积效应及有规律的退化过程。以某雷达电源整板为例,在温度应力下进行恒加加速退化试验,观测到特征退化量电源板输出电压随温度变化的退化规律,进行统计推断。结果表明基于加速退化数据进行该部分可靠性分析方法可行、结果可信,且更具优势,为雷达系统可靠性评估及增强可信度奠定基础。     

中程空空导弹冲淡式干扰模型

中程空空导弹的末制导主动雷达一方面提高了中程空空导弹作战效能和载机的生成概率,另一方面也为对中程空空导弹实施冲淡式干扰提供了机会。基于冲淡式干扰的基本原理建立了中程空空导弹的冲淡式电子干扰模型,分析了各种不同攻防对策下的冲淡式干扰的效果及其变化趋势,在此基础上讨论了对抗双方在冲淡式电子对抗中的最优对策。     

多指标下的炮兵火力最优分配

为了提高炮兵火力打击效能,提出了小生境遗传算法与模糊多目标决策相结合的混合算法,建立了多指标下的炮兵火力分配模型,并阐述了混合算法设计,给出了应用举例,结果表明,与传统的单指标下的炮兵火力最优分配相比,该方法更符合战场实际情况。     

Signature based analysis of m‐Consecutive‐k‐out‐of‐n: F systems with exchangeable components

In this article, we study reliability properties of m‐consecutive‐k‐out‐of‐n: F systems with exchangeable components. We deduce exact formulae and recurrence relations for the signature of the system. Closed form expressions for the survival function and the lifetime distribution as a mixture of the distribution of order statistics are established as well. These representations facilitate the computation of several reliability characteristics of the system for a given exchangeable joint distribution or survival function. Finally, we provide signature‐based stochastic ordering results for the system's lifetime and investigate the IFR preservation property under the formulation of m‐consecutive‐k‐out‐of‐n: F systems. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Monitoring poisson count data with probability control limits when sample sizes are time varying

This article considers the problem of monitoring Poisson count data when sample sizes are time varying without assuming a priori knowledge of sample sizes. Traditional control charts, whose control limits are often determined before the control charts are activated, are constructed based on perfect knowledge of sample sizes. In practice, however, future sample sizes are often unknown. Making an inappropriate assumption of the distribution function could lead to unexpected performance of the control charts, for example, excessive false alarms in the early runs of the control charts, which would in turn hurt an operator's confidence in valid alarms. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of probability control limits, which are determined based on the realization of sample sizes online. The conditional probability that the charting statistic exceeds the control limit at present given that there has not been a single alarm before can be guaranteed to meet a specified false alarm rate. Simulation studies show that our proposed control chart is able to deliver satisfactory run length performance for any time‐varying sample sizes. The idea presented in this article can be applied to any effective control charts such as the exponentially weighted moving average or cumulative sum chart. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 625–636, 2013     

一种面向大规模HLA仿真的并行区域匹配算法

HLA仿真中,数据分发管理实现基于值的过滤,可以有效减少盟员接收冗余数据的可能性和网络中的数据流量。大规模HLA仿真系统在仿真推进中需要大量的区域匹配计算以维护数据分发管理的正确性。现有的区域匹配算法大多需要对所有区域进行匹配计算,造成了大量计算资源的浪费;同时,主要基于串行匹配思想,难以充分发挥多核平台的并行计算优势。针对现有区域匹配算法的局限性,提出了一种面向大规模HLA仿真的并行区域匹配算法,该算法能够实现对一次仿真推进中多个改变区域的并行匹配计算,同时在匹配计算中采用基于移动相交的基本思想,利用区域范围移动前后的历史信息,将匹配限定在移动区间之内,减少了大量的无关计算。理论分析与实验结果表明该算法尤其适合基于多核计算平台构建大规模分布式仿真的应用需求。     

大深度无动力运载器弹道散布影响因素分析

潜射导弹无动力运载器弹道散布特性是导弹后续弹道和运载器分离体水下散布的重要影响因素,决定其散布的主要因素有初始弹道参数和海洋环境扰动等.建立了运载器空间运动数学模型,利用数理统计中的正交试验法安排实验,对不同工况下运载器上浮弹道进行仿真,通过极差分析确定影响因素的主次关系,利用方差分析法和F检验确定影响因素的显著性.仿真结果表明:横向海流对弹道散布半径影响显著,绕x和y轴的初始角速度及横向海流对位移影响不显著.研究结果可以为弹道规划和运载器加工制造提供一定参考.