Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014     

The sixteenth-century antecedents of special operations ‘small war’

The first conceptual, theoretical treatises about small war (la petite guerre) as special operations appeared only from the middle of the seventeenth century. The term is not used in the eighteenth-century sense of ‘special operations’ in older sources. The supposed absence of any treatment of the subject is surprising considering the obsession with the ‘art of war’ in the Renaissance, but other authors attribute it to a supposed antinomy between chivalric ideals and irregular warfare. But the absence of explicit manuals on the subject is not evidence of absence of advanced reflection on this kind of operations in the Middle Ages and in Early Modern times. We should thus look elsewhere, in other genres, for writings that contain and pass on military knowledge. Epics, romances, educational and military treatises, and memoirs in fact contain elements of a theory of special operations, even though these genres differ from our conception of rationality inherited from the Enlightenment.     

Guerrillas and bandits in the Serranía de Ronda, 1810–1812

The Spanish Guerrilla (1808–1812) which has given its name to ideologically motivated insurgencies is usually portrayed as a patriotic uprising against the French occupation forces of Napoleon. It was that, in part, but also many other things besides. This case study illustrates its overlap and convergence with banditry but also with social unrest turned into uprisings directed by poor Spaniards against their creditors, as in the storming of Ronda by insurgents in 1810. From the propaganda of the day to the subsequent Spanish patriotic historiography, there has been a tendency to exaggerate the amplitude of events and also the damage that was done to the French forces and the casualty figures inflicted on them.     

LFMCW雷达MTD处理的分析与研究

将LFMCW雷达运用于主动防护系统时,由于受到发射信号泄露以及地杂波、噪声等因素的影响,往往难以满足低虚警概率的要求。工程上可以利用MTD技术提高信噪比抑制虚假目标。但对于快速来袭的导弹目标,由于在连续的检测周期内目标往往并非出现在同一个距离分辨单元内,直接采用MTD算法进行信号处理并不能得到理想的检测效果。针对这一问题,首先分析了目标在相邻检测周期跨越距离单元造成的回波相位变化及其对信号积累的影响;其后提出在已知目标速度和未知目标速度的情况下分别进行MTD相位补偿的方法,并通过仿真验证了该方法的有效性。     

基于拉格朗日松弛的航天测控调度上界求解算法

通过分析航天测控调度问题的测控需求,建立了航天测控调度0-1整数规划模型,运用拉格朗日松弛方法对模型中的设备约束和卫星约束进行了松弛,运用次梯度优化算法求得了拉格朗日对偶问题的上界.最后,通过对两个场景的试验分析,证明了运用次梯度优化算法求得的上界的有效性.     

基于相位编组和灰度统计的海天线检测

针对复杂海空背景图像中的海天线检测问题,提出了一种基于相位编组和灰度统计的新方法.首先,在边缘图像的基础上运用相位编组算法,得到大量的直线段.然后,根据直线段的图像倾角和到图像原点的距离两个参数对这些直线段进行分类,并选取直线段长度总和最大的若干个类,用这些类中的所有边缘点进行直线拟合,得到若干条候选海天线.最后,通过...     

铜导线过载残留物表面形貌分析

利用火灾痕迹物证综合实验台,制备铜导线在不同过载电流作用下的残留物,用数码相机、扫描电子显微镜观察、分析导线的表面形貌。结果表明：随着过载电流的增大,绝缘层逐渐变软、膨胀、起泡、炭化,并与芯线脱离;芯线表面氧化程度加重,沟槽状的加工划痕逐渐消失,并出现金属熔化流淌痕迹。因此,利用数码相机、扫描电子显微镜观察、分析铜导线表面的形貌特征,可以鉴别其是否过载以及过载的程度。     

天基反导拦截打击平台作战部署建模分析

研究了反助推段弹道导弹的天基载EKV拦截打击平台的轨道选择及构造问题.根据建立的弹道估计状态转移矩阵、平台拦截能力以及弹道导弹发射点位置参数等相关信息,确定了天基载EKV反导拦截打击平台的轨道属性参数.该模型可以为研究及建设天基载EKV反导拦截打击平台相关问题提供参考依据.     

GPS动态定位中整周模糊度的快速解算

在导航中快速和高精度GPS定位需要解算差分载波相位的整周模糊度值.目前整周模糊度的求解方法,丢失了对提高未知参数估值精度很有用的历元信息,并且在去相关过程中必须使方差阵为正定阵,不仅解算难度大,还可能出现病态分解,使得去相关失败.提出了一种GPS整周模糊度的快速解算方法,首先利用卡尔曼算法求解整周模糊度的浮点解;其次确定搜索空间,对协方差阵进行Cholesky分解,削弱其相关性;最后用ratio检验得出最终解.通过理论推导和基于实测数据的仿真分析表明,卡尔曼算法有效地利用多历元信息提高了浮点解的精度,并且在去相关过程中解决了方差阵必须为正定阵的问题,避免出现病态分解,使得搜索空间得到明显的改善,提高了效率,具有实际的应用价值.     

对称五元照射的SCM网络设计分析

从需求分析、对称五元照射器组阵设计、单通道单脉冲（Single-Channel Monopulse,SCM）网络设计等几个环节,深入分析了无人值守条件下高动态低仰角跟踪所采用的对称五元照射SCM网络的实现方法。通过与传统3通道天线组阵的比较,阐明了新对称五元照射阵列的优越性;通过与双通道多模馈源和差网络的比较,阐明了新SCM网络的特点;根据校飞试验结果,证明了设计方法的合理性。