Book Reviews

Strategic Air Defense. Edited by Stephen J. Cimbala. Scholarly Resources, Wilmington, DE (1989), ISBN 0–8420–2285–6, $40.00

NATO's Defence of the North. Brassey's Atlantic Commentaries No. 1. Edited by Eric Grove. Brassey's, London (1989), ISBN 0–08–037339–9, £7.50

Maritime Strategy and the Balance of Power: Britain and America in the Twentieth Century. Edited by John B. Hattendorf and Robert S. Jordan. Macmillan, London (1989), ISBN 0–333–43789–6, £45.00

Superpowers at Sea: an Assessment of the Naval Arms Race. By Richard Fieldhouse and Shunji Taoka. SIPRI, Oxford (1989), ISBN 0–19–829135–3

Security at Sea: Naval Arms Control. Edited by Richard Fieldhouse. Oxford University Press, Oxford (1990), ISBN 0–19–829130–2, £25.00

Strategy in the Southern Oceans: a South American View. By Virginia Gamba‐Stonehouse. Pinter, London (1989), ISBN 0–86187–017–4, £30.00

The Defence Industrial Base and the West. Edited by D. G. Haglund. Routledge, London (1989), ISBN 0–415–00923–5, £30.00

Defense and Détente: US and West German Perspectives on Defense Policy. Edited by Joseph I. Coffey and Klaus von Schubert. Westview Press, Boulder, CO, ISBN 0–8133–7722–6, $36.50     

Simulation of stochastic activity networks using path control variates

This article details several procedures for using path control variates to improve the accuracy of simulation-based point and confidence-interval estimators of the mean completion time of a stochastic activity network (SAN). Because each path control variate is the duration of the corresponding directed path in the network from the source to the sink, the vector of selected path controls has both a known mean and a known covariance matrix. This information is incorporated into estimation procedures for both normal and nonnormal responses. To evaluate the performance of these procedures experimentally, we examine the bias, variance, and mean square error of the controlled point estimators as well as the average half-length and coverage probability of the corresponding confidence-interval estimators for a set of SANs in which the following characteristics are systematically varied: (a) the size of the network (number of nodes and arcs); (b) the topology of the network; (c) the percentage of activities with exponentially distributed durations; and (d) the relative dominance of the critical path. The experimental results show that although large improvements in accuracy can be achieved with some of these procedures, the confidence-interval estimators for normal responses may suffer serious loss of coverage probability in some applications.     

The World Aerospace Industry in Transition

Abstract

With the world aerospace industry gathering at Farnborough, it is appropriate to take stock of how it is responding to the ‘New World Order’.     

A mean cost approximation for transportation problems with stochastic demand

Among the many tools of the operations researcher is the transportation algorithm which has been used to solve a variety of problems ranging from shipping plans to plant location. An important variation of the basic transportation problem is the transportation problem with stochastic demand or stochastic supply. This paper presents a simple approximation technique which may be used as a starting solution for algorithms that determine exact solutions. The paper indicates that the approximation technique offered here is superior to a starting solution obtained by substituting expected demand for the random variables.     

Defence industries adjusting to change 1

This paper analyses the impact of terrorist activity on international tourist flows. To this end, we have estimated a cross‐sectional gravity equation for tourism from the G‐7 countries to a sample of 134 destinations over the period 2001–2003. Within this framework, we evaluate the deviation from ‘normal’ tourist flows due to terrorist activity, which is considered as negative advertising for the affected country. The analysis suggests that both domestic victims and international attacks are relevant factors when foreign tourists make their choice. This result is robust under alternative specifications. Moreover, the impact of terrorism is more severe in developing countries.     

Defence and firm performance in the UK

The UK Ministry of Defence is British industry's largest single customer and a number of firms and industries are highly dependent on defence sales. Various hypotheses have been proposed about the impact of defence procurement on firms and these are investigated using four performance indicators: financial structure, investment, productivity and profitability. With regard to the borrowing ratio, capital investment and the rate of return, there is no statistically significant difference between the mean financial ratios for low and high dependence firms. However, non‐dependents appear to have a higher level and rate of growth of labour productivity than dependents.     

THE CASE FOR DEFENCE

What is the case for defence and is it a worthwhile investment? This question is addressed for two contrasting nations, namely, the UK and New Zealand. Economists have a set of standard analytical tools for addressing the question but they are difficult to operationalise. This paper provides policy‐relevant answers.     

THE MYTH OF NUCLEAR DETERRENCE

Nuclear deterrence is sometimes treated as a known quantity—a definite thing that keeps us safe and ensures our security. It has also often been used as a justification for possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear deterrence, however, is based on an unexamined notion: the belief that the threat to destroy cities provides decisive leverage. An examination of history (including recent reinterpretations of the bombing of Hiroshima) shows that destroying cities rarely affects the outcome of wars. How is it possible that an action that is unlikely to be decisive can make an effective threat? Recent work on terrorism suggests that attacks against civilians are often not only ineffective but also counterproductive. And a review of the practical record of nuclear deterrence shows more obvious failures than obvious successes. Given this, the record of nuclear deterrence is far more problematic than most people assume. If no stronger rationale for keeping these dangerous weapons can be contrived, perhaps they should be banned.     

State-making and region-building: the interplay of domestic and regional security in the Middle East

In his contribution to this collection, Keith Krause discusses the link between state-formation processes and regional security-building. In doing so, he draws attention to a specific, domestic, aspect of the process of regional community-building: the role of ideas about, institutions of, and instruments of organized violence in social, political and economic life. According to Krause, focusing on the role of institutions of organized violence in structuring and influencing the basic choices for security policy might allow a better evaluation of the prospects for constructing a regional security order.     

Book reviews

John Lawrence Tone, The Fatal Knot: The Guerrilla War in Navarre and the Defeat of Napoleon in Spain. Chapel Hill and London; The University of North Carolina Press 1994. Pp.vii + 239, 1 map, biblio., index. $34.95 (cloth). ISBN 0–8078–2169–1.

Robert Holland (ed), Emergencies and Disorder in the European Empires after 1945. London: Frank Cass, 1994. Pp.x + 256; index. £32 (cloth); £15 (paper). ISBN 0–7146–4516–8 and 4109 X

Deborah L. Norden, Military Rebellion in Argentina: Between Coups and Consolidation. Lincoln, NE: University of Nebraska Press, 1996. Pp.242, index, $35/$17.50 (paper). ISBN 0–8032–8369–5.

William M. Minter, Apartheid's Contras: An Inquiry into the Roots of War in Angola and Mozambique. London and Atlantic Highlands, NJ: Zed Books Ltd; Johannesburg: Witwatersrand University Press, 1994. Pp. xii +308, 3 maps, biblio., index. $69.95/£39.95 (cloth); $29.95/£16.95(paper). ISBN 1–85649–266–4 and 266–4.