Expressions for item fill rates in periodic inventory systems

We examine the problem of estimating the item fill rate in a periodic inventory system. We show that the traditional expressions for line item fill rate, found in many operations management textbooks, perform well for high fill rates (above 90%), but they consistently underestimate the true fill rate. The problem of underestimation becomes significant as the fill rate falls below 90% and is greatly amplified in cases with very low fill rates (below 50%). We review other more accurate expressions for fill rate, discussing their relative merits. We then develop an exact fill rate expression that is robust for both high and low fill rates. We compare the new expression to others found in the literature via an extensive set of simulation experiments using data that reflect actual inventory systems found at Hewlett-Packard. We also examine the robustness of the expressions to violations in the underlying assumptions. Finally, we develop an alternative fill rate expression that is robust for cases of high demand variability where product returns are allowed. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

DESIGNING A VIABLE PREDICTION MARKET TO FORECAST DEFENSE ACQUISITION COST AND SCHEDULE OUTCOMES

This paper is the first to demonstrate a viable prediction market that successfully forecasts defense acquisition cost and schedule outcomes, and to provide insights for defense executive decision‐making. Already used in private industry, prediction markets can also accurately forecast outcomes and their associated risks for government programs. Using virtual money, prediction markets allow traders to ‘bet’ on some future outcome. This market mechanism turns out to be a relatively simple and accurate way to discover, aggregate, and communicate to a defense executive the collective market’s beliefs about the likelihood of an eventual outcome of an acquisition program of interest.     

A branch-bound algorithm for the capacitated facilities location problem

This paper discusses a mixed integer programming method for solving the Facilities Location Problem with capacities on the facilities. The algorithm uses a Decomposition technique to solve the dual of the associated continuous problem in each branch-bound iteration. The method was designed to produce the global optimum solution for problems with up to 100 facilities and 1,000 customers. Computational experience and a complete example are also presented in the appendix.     

Military Power: A Reply

This article argues that the prewar planning process for postwar Iraq was plagued by myriad problems, including a dysfunctional interagency process, overly optimistic assumptions, and a lack of contingency planning for alternative outcomes. These problems were compounded by a lack of civilian capacity during the occupation period, which led to a complicated and often uncoordinated relationship with the military authorities who found themselves taking the lead in many reconstruction activities. Taken together, these mistakes meant that US success on the battlefield was merely a prelude to a postwar insurgency whose outcome remains very much in doubt more than three years later.     

A simulated port facility in a theatre of operations

A hypothetical port facility in a theatre of operations is modeled and coded in a special purpose simulation language, for the purpose of conducting simulation experiments on a digital computer. The experiments are conducted to investigate the resource requirements necessary for the reception, discharge, and clearance of supplies at the port. Queue lengths, waiting times, facility utilizations, temporary storage levels, and ship turn-around times are analyzed as functions of transportation and cargo handling resources, using response surface methodology. The resulting response surfaces are revealing in regard to the sensitivity of port operations to transportation resource levels and the characteristics of the port facility's load factor. Two specific conclusions of significant value are derived. First, the simulation experiments clearly show that the standard procedures for determining discharge and clearance capacities take insufficient account of the effects of variability. Second, the response surfaces for ship turn-around times and temporary storage levels indicate that an extremely steep gradient exists as a function of troop levels.     

Controlled warfare: how directed-energy weapons will enable the US Military to fight effectively in an urban environment while minimizing collateral damage

US military operations are increasingly conducted within urban environments and with these operations come the risk of increasing the number of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. The use of non-lethal weaponry, such as directed-energy weapons, is one method for minimizing collateral damage. This method enables US military forces to effectively fight within urban environments through force escalation capabilities. Using a series of historical examples and future scenarios for urban warfare, this article highlights deficiencies affecting military capabilities in military urban operations, addresses the consequences of collateral damage, assesses the effectiveness of directed-energy weapons in military urban operations and encourages further funding, research and integration of non-lethal weaponry, such as directed-energy weapons, within the US military.     

The EU Global Strategy and diplomacy

The new EU Global Strategy has significant implications for EU diplomacy, in terms of both goals and means. This article first analyses the timing of the strategy as an exercise in diplomacy in its own right. Second, it argues that the strategy outlines a more expansive and noticeably more smart power-oriented approach to diplomacy in practical terms. Finally, it notes that the strategy has a new meta-narrative for EU diplomacy, which seeks to project a blend of both realistic assessment and idealistic aspiration.