A Lanchester-type model of combat with stochastic rates

The effects of environmental stochasticity in a Lanchester-type model of combat are investigated. The methodology is based on a study of stochastic differential equations with random parameters characterized by dichotomous Markov processes. Exact expressions for the Laplace transforms of the time evolution of the first- and second-order moments of the system are obtained. A special case when the fluctuations in the parameters occur with great rapidity in comparison with the natural time scale of the system is also analyzed. The stochastic stability in the mean-square sense is discussed by using the Routh–Hurwitz criterion and it is found that the stochastic perturbations tend to destabilize the system.     

A characterization of the wald distribution

Suppose X is a random variable having an absolutely continuous distribution function F(x). We assume that F(x) has the Wald distribution. A relation between the probability density function of X⁻¹ with that of X is used to characterize the Wald distribution.     

A cost-benefit analysis of military aircraft replacement policies

This paper describes a method of solving aircraft service life problems. The particular application concerns aircraft in the Naval Advanced Jet Training Command. The method of solution is comparative present value analysis of alternative replacement policies. The likely risks of estimation errors are reflected in the comparisons of present values. Differences are noted in the benefits associated with each policy, but external to Naval Aviation. Since the values of these benefits can be determined only at a higher level of decision-making, the result of the study is not a conclusive selection among policies, but a schedule of present values on the basis of which, together with values of the external benefits, a decision can be reached. This paper discusses replacement policies for aircraft used in the Naval Advanced Jet Pilot Training mission. Taking engineering technology and the training syllabus as given, four feasible plans for introducing replacement aircraft into service are evaluated in terms of the present values of differential costs associated with the plans and in terms of the likely errors in cost estimates used in calculation of the present values. The trade-off between present value of costs and planning flexibility is emphasized in choosing a recommended time pattern of aircraft replacement. The specific aircraft mixes considered are the TF–9J/TAF–9J and the TA–4F/A–4B. The first is the currently employed mix; the second is the proposed replacement. The problem is to select an optimal time-pattern of replacement of F–9's by A–4's, given technological differences favoring the A–4 and increasing costs of maintaining squadrons of F–9's. Replacements by aircraft types other than the A–4 are considered impractical. Four feasible plans for introducing A–4's through a 5-year period are evaluated in terms of current best estimates of the related costs of the plans and in terms of the flexibility of modifying each plan given future better information concerning the relevant costs. The method of analysis is comparative present value of expected costs.     

Allocation of resources to randomly occurring opportunities

An allocation problem is considered in lvhich different kinds of resources must be allocated to various activities, within a given time period. The opportunities for allo'cation appear randomly during this period. Certain assumptions about the values of possible allocations and the distribution of occurrences of opportunities lead to a dynamic programming formulation of the problem. This leads to a system of ordinary differential equations which are (in theory) solvable recursively, and can be solved numerically to any desired degree of precision. An example is given for the allocation of aircraft-carried weapons to targets of opportunity.     

Book Reviews

Men, Ideas and Tanks: British Military Thought and Armoured Forces, 1903–1939. By J. P. Harris, Manchester University Press, (1995) ISBN 0 7190 3762 (hardback) £40.00 or ISBN 0 7190 4814 (paperback) £14.99

Fighting for Ireland. By M. L. R. Smith. London and New York: Routledge, (1995) ISBN 0–415–09161–6.

The Fundamentals of British Maritime Doctrine (BR1806) HMSO London (1995) ISBN 0–11–772470‐X £9.50

Regional Conflicts: The Challenges to US‐Russian Co‐Operation Edited by James E. Goodby SIPRI: Oxford University Press 1995 ISBN 019‐S29–171X, £30.00

SIPRI Yearbook 1995 ‐ Armaments, Disarmament and International Security Oxford: Oxford University Press 1995. ISBN 019–829–1930, £60.00.

Drug Trafficking in the Americas Edited by Bruce M. Bagley & William O. Walker III Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, (USA), 1994 ISBN 1–56000–752–4.

Raglan: From the Peninsula to the Crimea By John Sweetman, Arms & Armour 1993. ISBN 1–85409–059–3. £19.00.     

Evaluation of force structures under uncertainty

A model, for assessing the effectiveness of alternative force structures in an uncertain future conflict, is presented and exemplified. The methodology is appropriate to forces (e.g., the attack submarine force) where alternative unit types may be employed, albeit at differing effectiveness, in the same set of missions. Procurement trade-offs, and in particular the desirability of special purpose units in place of some (presumably more expensive) general purpose units, can be addressed by this model. Example calculations indicate an increase in the effectiveness of a force composed of general purpose units, relative to various mixed forces, with increase in the uncertainty regarding future conflicts.     

On the optimal allocation of crewmen aboard a warship

In the temporarily isolated situation in which a warship finds itself during a mission. not only spare parts, but also “spare” crewmen in various categories of specialization must he on board. Mathematical models for the probabilities of mission survival for personnel and for personnel and materiel jointly are proposed. A practical example is worked out: the optimal allocation of spare crewmen to different categories of specialization is calculated.     

A note on the influence of missing operations on scheduling problems

This paper attempts to resolve the existing confusion concerning missing operations. Scheduling problems are classified in two groups: (i) null-continuous (NC)—comprising the problems where an optimal schedule remains optimal on replacement of arbitrarily small processing times (existing operations) with zeros (missing operations); (ii) null-discontinuous (NDC)—comprising those problems which are not null-continuous.