Quantification of contractor risk

This paper presents a quantitative index of the level of risk assumed by a contractor in various contract type situations. The definition includes expression of real world uncertainty and contractor's utility for money. Examples are given for the major contract types and special applications are discussed.     

An algorithm (GIPC2) for solving integer programming problems with separable nonlinear objective functions

This paper presents an algorithm for solving the integer programming problem possessing a separable nonlinear objective function subject to linear constraints. The method is based on a generalization of the Balas implicit enumeration scheme. Computational experience is given for a set of seventeen linear and seventeen nonlinear test problems. The results indicate that the algorithm can solve the nonlinear integer programming problem in roughly the equivalent time required to solve the linear integer programming problem of similar size with existing algorithms. Although the algorithm is specifically designed to solve the nonlinear problem, the results indicate that the algorithm compares favorably with the Branch and Bound algorithm in the solution of linear integer programming problems.     

Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014     

Manpower modeling in cost effectiveness studies of usaf program to reduce the incidence of heart disease

Planning for a cardiovascular disease reduction program, soon to be initiated by the United States Air Force, has required an evaluation of its expected cost effectiveness. During the course of this evaluation, it was necessary to consider manpower flows and their expected changes in response to the disease reduction program. This paper describes several manpower models that were applied: a simple expected value equilibrium model; a cross-sectional model that considered the length of service of personnel; and a staffing model used to optimize the allocation of paramedics to the many Air Force bases of various sizes. The relevance of these models to the cost effectiveness evaluation is shown but the detailed cost effectiveness results are not presented.     

Structural models of award fee contracts

This paper describes the construction of a mathematical model structure in a particular area of management. In addition it is intended as an illustration of how appropriate levels of mathematics can be utilized in management research when original formulations lack sufficient precision for conducting quantitative analyses. The specific area studied deals with the formulation and analysis of contract types. In particular the award fee type contract is treated. At present mathematical structure models for other contract types have received considerable attention, but award fee types have not been structured in mathematical terms. The paper provides a discussion of model formulation for award fee contracts, develops a detailed example of such a structure, and illustrates that model by numerical examples indicating the application of such models to the formulation and analysis of award fee contracts.