Fuzzy-AHP在军械软科研管理中的应用

本文采用群组Fuzzy-AHP对军械管理软科研成果进行综合评价,给出了一个简便、可行的评价标准。军械管理系统是一个复杂的开放系统,有诸多不确定的因素存在,我们认为要提出一个适应性较强的、具有浓缩内涵和广大外延的军械管理软科研成果的评价标准,必须遵守局部服从整体、近期效果与远期效果相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的原则。针对军械管理软科学研究的特点,本文建立了表征软科学成果的包括价值、质量、投入在内的指标体系,构成了多目标决策数学模型,运用层次分析的方法,结合模糊评判的手段,给出了模糊评判矩阵、综合评分与排序。     

Book reviews

Third World Military Expenditure: Determinants and Implications. By Robert McKinlay. Frances Pinter, London (1989)

The UK Defence Industrial Base: Development and Future Policy Options. By Trevor Taylor and Keith Hayward. Brassey's, London, for Royal United Services Institute (1989), ISBN 0-08-036713-5, £22.50

Mutiny. By Lawrence James. Buchan & Enright, London (1987), ISBN 0-907675-70-0, £12.95; Scapegoat! Famous Courts Martial. By John Harris. Severn House, London (1988), ISBN 0-7278-2103-2, £12.95; In Glass Houses. By Robert Boyes. Military Provost Staff Corps Association, Colchester (1986), ISBN 0-9513467-0-9, £6.50 (paperback)

The Nuclear Weapons World: Who, How and Where. Edited by Patrick Burke. Frances Pinter, London (1988), ISBN 086187-705-5, £50.00

Merchants of Treason—America's Secrets for Sale. By Thomas B. Allen and Norman Polmar. Robert Hale, London (1988), ISBN 0-7090-3543-8, £14.95 ($21.95); Intelligence and Intelligence Policy in a Democratic Society. Edited by Stephen J. Cimbala. Transnational Publishers, Dobbs Ferry, NY (1987), ISBN 0-941320-44-8, $37.50; Catching Spies—Principles and Practices of Counterespionage. By H. H. A. Cooper and Lawrence J. Redlinger. Paladin Press, Boulder, CO (1988), ISBN 0-87364-466-2, $24.95

The BattleshipRoyal Sovereignand Her Sister Ships. By Peter C. Smith. William Kimber, Wellingborough (1988), ISBN 0-7183-0704-6, £12.95; Air Power at Sea, 1945 to Today. By John Winton. Sidgwick & Jackson, London (1987), £9.95     

Book reviews

British Military History: a Supplement to Robin Higham's Guide to the Sources.. Edited by Gerald Jordan. Garland, New York (1988), xii + 586 pp., $75.00

Red Duster at War. By John Slader. William Kimber, London (1988), 352 pp., £15.50

Armed Services and Society. By Martin Edmonds. Leicester University Press, Leicester (1988), 226 pp., £25.00     

变锥角多模圆喇叭馈源设计

本文概要地说明了多模馈源提高效率的概念,并在已有文献[4]公式的基础上计算并绘制了一些便于设计的通用曲线,利用这些曲线设计了一个12GC的变锥角多模圆喇叭馈源。通用曲线可提供设计时使用。     

A sequential bayes procedure for reliability demonstration

A common problem in life testing is to demonstrate that the mean time to failure, θ, exceeds some minimum acceptable value, say θ₁, with a given confidence coefficient γ. When this is true, it is said that “θ₁ has been demonstrated with a confidence γ”. In this paper a Sequential Bayes Procedure (SBP) for demonstrating (by means of. a probability statement) that θ exceeds θ₁ is presented. The SBP differs from the classical procedure in the sense that a prior distribution is assumed on the parameter θ, calling for a Bayesian approach. The procedure is based on the sequence of statistics.     

Interception in a network

This paper presents an algorithm for determining where to place intercepting units in order to maximize the probability of preventing an opposing force from proceeding from one particular node in an undirected network to another. The usual gaming assumptions are invoked; namely, the strategy for placing the units is known to the opponent and he will choose a path through the network which, based on this knowledge, maximizes his probability of successful traverse. As given quantities, the model requires a list of the arcs and nodes of the network, the number of intercepting units available to stop the opposing force, and the probabilities for stopping the opposition at the arcs and nodes as functions of the number of intercepting units placed there. From these quantities, the algorithm calculates the probabilities for placing the unit at the arcs and nodes when one intercepting unit is available, and the expected numbers of units to place at the arcs and nodes when multiple intercepting units are available.