A Lanchester-type model of combat with stochastic rates

The effects of environmental stochasticity in a Lanchester-type model of combat are investigated. The methodology is based on a study of stochastic differential equations with random parameters characterized by dichotomous Markov processes. Exact expressions for the Laplace transforms of the time evolution of the first- and second-order moments of the system are obtained. A special case when the fluctuations in the parameters occur with great rapidity in comparison with the natural time scale of the system is also analyzed. The stochastic stability in the mean-square sense is discussed by using the Routh–Hurwitz criterion and it is found that the stochastic perturbations tend to destabilize the system.     

A characterization of the wald distribution

Suppose X is a random variable having an absolutely continuous distribution function F(x). We assume that F(x) has the Wald distribution. A relation between the probability density function of X⁻¹ with that of X is used to characterize the Wald distribution.     

A cost-benefit analysis of military aircraft replacement policies

This paper describes a method of solving aircraft service life problems. The particular application concerns aircraft in the Naval Advanced Jet Training Command. The method of solution is comparative present value analysis of alternative replacement policies. The likely risks of estimation errors are reflected in the comparisons of present values. Differences are noted in the benefits associated with each policy, but external to Naval Aviation. Since the values of these benefits can be determined only at a higher level of decision-making, the result of the study is not a conclusive selection among policies, but a schedule of present values on the basis of which, together with values of the external benefits, a decision can be reached. This paper discusses replacement policies for aircraft used in the Naval Advanced Jet Pilot Training mission. Taking engineering technology and the training syllabus as given, four feasible plans for introducing replacement aircraft into service are evaluated in terms of the present values of differential costs associated with the plans and in terms of the likely errors in cost estimates used in calculation of the present values. The trade-off between present value of costs and planning flexibility is emphasized in choosing a recommended time pattern of aircraft replacement. The specific aircraft mixes considered are the TF–9J/TAF–9J and the TA–4F/A–4B. The first is the currently employed mix; the second is the proposed replacement. The problem is to select an optimal time-pattern of replacement of F–9's by A–4's, given technological differences favoring the A–4 and increasing costs of maintaining squadrons of F–9's. Replacements by aircraft types other than the A–4 are considered impractical. Four feasible plans for introducing A–4's through a 5-year period are evaluated in terms of current best estimates of the related costs of the plans and in terms of the flexibility of modifying each plan given future better information concerning the relevant costs. The method of analysis is comparative present value of expected costs.     

Allocation of resources to randomly occurring opportunities

An allocation problem is considered in lvhich different kinds of resources must be allocated to various activities, within a given time period. The opportunities for allo'cation appear randomly during this period. Certain assumptions about the values of possible allocations and the distribution of occurrences of opportunities lead to a dynamic programming formulation of the problem. This leads to a system of ordinary differential equations which are (in theory) solvable recursively, and can be solved numerically to any desired degree of precision. An example is given for the allocation of aircraft-carried weapons to targets of opportunity.     

A note on the influence of missing operations on scheduling problems

This paper attempts to resolve the existing confusion concerning missing operations. Scheduling problems are classified in two groups: (i) null-continuous (NC)—comprising the problems where an optimal schedule remains optimal on replacement of arbitrarily small processing times (existing operations) with zeros (missing operations); (ii) null-discontinuous (NDC)—comprising those problems which are not null-continuous.     

基于衰减记忆的地形辅助导航算法

地形辅助导航是解决惯性导航系统定位误差随时间不断增大的缺点的重要方法之一。提出了基于衰减记忆的地形辅助导航算法,算法使用了一个新的相关算子,根据量测值存在的历史时间长短,对量测值赋以不同的权值,用一个递归表达式递归地计算相关值。该算法在提高定位精度的同时减少了计算量和存储空间,从而提高计算速度,并连续输出定位结果。仿真结果表明该算法的正确匹配率、均方根误差和圆概率误差均优于TERCOM算法。     

对数正态分布加速因子的Bayes估计

基于对数正态分布形式以及分布对数标准差不变的条件,运用Bayes方法对对数正态分布加速寿命试验条件下的加速因子进行分析。首先基于全寿命试验数据和随机变量函数分布的理论推导出加速因子的先验分布;然后由Bayes公式结合少量的现场截尾试验数据,得出加速因子的Bayes估计模型;最后给出实例进行说明。     

自行高炮武器系统机动生存能力建模评估

首先根据自行高炮武器系统的特点和功能,建立了自行高炮机动生存能力评估指标体系,然后根据自行机动能力的特点,建立了自行高炮武器系统的机动能力评估指标体系,运用层次分析法得出自行高炮的机动能力指数,并对武器系统抗毁伤、抗侦察、抗电磁干扰和防空拦截能力进行了量化,采用指数法建立自行高炮生存能力的综合指数评估模型.最后对某型自行高炮武器系统的生存能力进行了评估分析,验证了该模型的正确性.     

科学发展观的哲学解读

党的十七大报告以马克思主义生产力理论为哲学起点,把发展看做是科学发展观的第一要义,以历史唯物主义关于人民群众主体地位和人的全面发展理论为哲学基础,把以人为本作为科学发展观的核心,以辩证唯物主义基本原理为哲学依据,提出全面协调可持续是科学发展观的基本要求,统筹兼顾是坚持科学发展观的根本方法。     

一种全局最优的多感测器检测融合算法

在实际检测中,由于带宽、信道衰落和信道噪声等因素的影响,从本地检测器至融合中心的信道通常无法保证为理想传输信道,另外由于本地检测器和融合中心的距离比较远,会加剧信道的非可靠性和增加信道的传输能量,于是就在本地检测器和融合中心之间增加中继节点.然后利用贝叶斯规则对所有节点的判决规则进行联合最优化.最后通过仿真对系统的检测性能进行了比较.