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A probabilistic model is developed that applies to military bombardment, advertising for a mass audience, and other kinds of situations in which striking a target means that less of it is left to strike. The model provides the basis for decision analysis based on marginal gain in such circumstances. Heterogneous resources are considered as well as composite targets. All expenditures are quantized. The model has been developed as part of a computer-based military expert system, to replace a large complex set of expert opinions. In that application it sharply improves efficiency, yet conforms to major tenets of tactical doctrine. 相似文献
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Henry E. Eccles 《海军后勤学研究》1966,13(3):351-353
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In sensitivity testing for the Department of Defense, the high cost of experimental units necessitates the use of small sample sizes and accentuates the importance of design. This article compares five data collection-estimation procedures. Four of these are modifications of the Robbins-Monro method, and the other is the Langlie. The simulation study is designed as a factorial experiment with response function, sample size, initial design point, gate width, and noise as factors. The estimated V50 and its MSE are the responses compared to assess the small sample behavior of each method. Although there is no single clear-cut winner, the Delayed Robbins-Monro (DRM) with maximum likelihood estimation and the Estimated Quantal Response Curve (Wu [21]) are shown to perform well over a broad variety of conditions. 相似文献
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Henry U. Ufomba 《Defense & Security Analysis》2012,28(4):360-367
Apart from North Korea, no state's nuclear program in the twenty-first century has raised more concern to international security than Iran's. While Iran insists that its nuclear program is strictly for civilian purpose in line with Article IV of non-proliferation treaty, the USA and its allies insist that Iran has military intentions and called for sanctions. The failure of sanctions to deter Iran from its nuclear agenda had made many scholars and policy-makers call for a preemptive attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Situated within this debate, this paper positions itself as an antagonist to the preemptive airstrike option and argues that involving India in a possible nuclear “iron curtain” against Iran – a move known as technical isolation – remains the best option to the current nuclear crises. 相似文献
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Henry Solomon 《海军后勤学研究》1971,18(3):415-421
The objective of this paper is to provide an independent evaluation of the nature and interpretation of ships' physical condition data generated by the USN Board of Inspection and Survey (INSURV). The substantive context is the classification of ships in terms of material condition and/or readiness based on scores pertaining to individual line elements within each ship. In order to account for multi-dimensional measures of each ship, clustering procedures are employed to evaluate existing ship classification systems and to indicate other possibilities. 相似文献
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This paper identifies and classifies middle power nations through the use of broad political science definitions, the demand for military expenditures models and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The latter is used as a simple quantifiable measure of relative and potential military power. The paper also develops and utilizes a threat variable that is applicable to middle power nations. The panel data analysis shows that the middle power nations react to threat variables that proxy global instability utilize foreign aid as a complementary policy tool along with military expenditures, and face significant trade-offs between military and non-military government spending. 相似文献
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This paper discusses the operations analysis in the underwater search for the remains of the submarine Scorpion The a priori target location probability distribution for the search was obtained by monte-carlo procedures based upon nine different scenarios concerning the Scorpion loss and associated credibility weights. These scenarios and weights were postulated by others. Scorpion was found within 260 yards of the search grid cell having the largest a priori probability Frequent computations of local effectiveness probabilities (LEPs) were carried out on scene during the search and were used to determine an updated (a posteriori) target location distribution. This distribution formed the basis for recommendation of the current high probability areas for search The sum of LEPs weighted by the a priori target location probabilities is called search effectiveness probability (SEP) and was used as the overall measure of effectiveness for the operation. SEP and LEPs were used previously in the Mediterranean H-bomb search On-scene and stateside operations analysis are discussed and the progress of the search is indicated by values of SEP for various periods during the operation. 相似文献