Field test and probabilistic analysis of irregular steel debris casualty risks from a person-borne improvised explosive device

Person-borne improvised explosive devices (PBIEDs) are often used in terrorist attacks in Western countries. This study aims to predict the trajectories of PBIED fragments and the subsequent safety risks for people exposed to this hazard. An explosive field test with a typical PBIED composed of a plastic explosive charge and steel nut enhancements was performed to record initial fragment behaviour, including positions, velocity, and trajectory angles. These data were used to predict the full trajectory of PBIED fragments using a probabilistic analysis. In the probabilistic analyses a probability of fatality or serious injury was computed. Based on the results presented, many practical conclusions can be drawn, for instance, regarding safe evacuation distances if a person were exposed to a suspected PBIED.     

Optimal selection from a random sequence with observation errors

A form of sequential decision problem is introduced in which options are presented in sequence. with no recall of rejected options (as in the secretary problem), but in which the value of each option may only he inferred from experiments. Decisions have thus to be made concerning both the acceptance and rejection of each option and the degree of experimentation. General properties of the optimal policy are derived, and an algorithm is obtained for the solution in a special case. This special case suggests a heuristic rule for more general situations. the performance of which rule has been investigated by a Monte Carlo study.     

Landmark in defense literature

Some books which have fallen within Defense & Security Analysis's fields of interest have paved the way for further studies, either because they have opened up a new era for enquiry and research, or because they have introduced new approaches and methodologies to existing areas. Other volumes have had impact, but have, in their turn, owed an intellectual debt to an earlier work. Again, there are many books and studies on defense which have become forgotten or which were unappreciated at the time of their publication, but which have immediate relevance to today's problems. This section is designed to review books that fall within these categories with a view to highlighting how and why they deserve serious attention.     

Experience with prototype multicriteria decision support systems for pelagic fish quota determination

This article describes an attempt to use certain multiple-criteria decision-making aids to support the formulation of catch quota policies in pelagic fisheries management. A set of attributes was identified, as necessary to represent the decision-making goals. Potentially useful methods appeared to be STEM, interactive sequential goal programming (ISGP), and interactive multiple goal programming (IMGP). Prototype microcomputer-based systems were developed to implement each of the three approaches. Although experience with the implementation is still relatively limited, it has involved actual planners and decision makers from both the fishing industry and from the relevant state department. The evidence is that IMGP is particularly useful in this context, and that it does seem to facilitate the reaching of consensus between different interest groups.     

Optimizing search with positive information feedback

A search model is formulated in which positive information may be obtained, through the detection of trails, as to the target's earlier whereabouts. The corresponding Bayesian update formulas for target location probabilities are derived. The model does not appear to be amenable to rigorous optimization. A moving-horizon rule, and a heuristic simplification thereof, are, however, derived. In two numerical examples it is demonstrated that actively designing for detecting trail information, through use of these moving-horizon rules, has substantial potential advantage over using, for example, myopic rules even if the positive information is adaptively incorporated into location probabilities before applying the latter rules in each time period.     

Landmarks in defense literature

Military operations and maritime preponderance by Charles E. Callwell, Edinburgh: William Blackwood & Sons, 1905.     

Meeting the growing safeguards burden

ABSTRACT

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) faces challenges in fulfilling its safeguards mandate as a result of an expanding safeguards burden and a relatively static budget. This dilemma has been exacerbated by the additional burdens of implementing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in Iran, but would not go away if implementation of the JCPOA were to end. There are three main areas of opportunity for the Agency: (1) budgetary expansion tied to changes in staffing policies, (2) changes in safeguards approaches, and (3) technological innovation. Barriers and limitations are associated with each approach, and advancing any of them will face a difficult political environment in Vienna.