装备研制需求与计划滚动方式研究

本文对武器装备研制计划的制订过程进行了分析,针对计划制订问题的特点．提出了用理论需求和实际需求曲线的方式将项目研制的需求与计划制订的约束联系起来,在此基础上对五年计划的滚动作了详细的分析,并给出了五年和年度计划经费滚动的程序算法。     

十一五期间我国消防发展趋势预测

消防安全状况是衡量一个国家现代化文明程度的重要标志之一,在总结分析前几年的工作经验及当前存在问题的基础上,对“十一五”期间,我国火灾形势、消防职能、依法治火、农村消防、消防社会化、消防安全评价等几个方面的消防工作进行分析和预测,为研究和制定今后消防工作提供了一定的借鉴。     

建模仿真主计划及其关键技术

综述了建模仿真主计划 (MSMP)的目的和内容 ,着重阐述该计划中的公共技术框架 ,分析该计划对军事领域内建模仿真活动的影响 ,并对其中某些关键技术问题提出了解决思路或方法     

Insurgency and Violent Extremism in Pakistan

Pakistan has an uneven history of dealing with insurgencies and extremism. This article identifies the various campaigns and policies employed to defeat militants and deal with violent extremism. It describes the major anti-state groups and how Pakistan’s military and civilian leaders, relying on the related strategies of selectivity, gradualism and containment, have allowed militancy and terrorism to thrive. This article finds that while the elites and the public may have belatedly come to appreciate the existential internal threats these groups pose to the country, there are strong reasons to doubt the state’s full commitment to its promises to take meaningful action.     

Expendable soldiers

Foreign Legions in the generic sense have evolved in ways that would surprise Beau Geste. Not only are more foreigners or recent immigrants enlisting in Western military forces, but also the post-Cold War era has seen the revival of warlord militias and Private Military Companies. Western militaries, in particular that of the United States, have also sought to increase their strategic reach through security assistance to regional military forces. While there have been some successes, security assistance has proven to have its limitations, not to mention unintended consequences for civil military relations, democracy promotion, and military efficiency.     

Unemployed youth: ‘time bombs’ or engines for growth?

While popular narratives about success in South Africa focus on individual effort, accidents of birth continue to determine life prospects. Inequalities in early childhood development, health, and education narrow the range of possibilities that young people have available to them, and this impacts on their risk appetite, including, through the workings of the maturing brain, a propensity to violence, substance abuse, and unsafe sex. New technology offers young people an unprecedented ability to organise and network. This fact, combined with high levels of youth dissatisfaction, unemployment, and marginalisation, leads many to worry that the young are “ticking time bombs”. While there certainly are risks, great unused pools of youth labour also present an opportunity for engaging them in social advancement programmes. Structured youth service is a tried and tested policy option that, when implemented as part of an integrated youth development strategy, can enlist thousands of young people in devoting their considerable energies to leadership for the public good.     

Critics gone wild: Counterinsurgency as the root of all evil

The Western interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan have produced a heated polemic concerning the merits and demerits of counterinsurgency – the operational approach underpinning both campaigns. The two books reviewed here provide a good summation of the arguments against counterinsurgency: it is not a strategy and will fail when mistaken as such; its theory does not make intervention and war significantly easier; and even the most successful counterinsurgency campaigns have been bloody, violent, and protracted. Yet as this review highlights, beyond these central points, criticism of counterinsurgency is too often off the mark in its approach and totalizing in its pretentions. There is much to criticize and an urgent need to learn from past campaigns, yet bold claims and broad generalizations can mislead rather than enlighten. The analysis is particularly unhelpful when the definition of the central issue at hand – counterinsurgency – is being unwittingly or deliberately distorted. In the end, these two books form a poor basis for the debate that must now take place, because they are too ideological in tone, too undisciplined in approach, and therefore too unqualified in what they finally say.     

基于BP神经网络的装甲战斗车辆性能指标需求方案评价

针对现行评价方法存在的问题,本文提出了一种基于BP神经网络的装甲战斗车辆性能指标需求方案评价方法。首先给出了装甲战斗车辆性能指标需求方案评价的指标体系,然后阐述了基于BP神经网络的装甲战斗车辆性能指标需求方案评价步骤,最后给出示例证明了方法的可行性。研究表明,该方法能够降低评价过程中人为因素的影响,从而提高了装甲战斗车辆性能指标需求方案评价的准确性。     

方案评估动态推演模型设计

指挥机关制定战斗方案后,使用仿真方法进行评估已经成为部队验证方案或计划可行性的重要手段。但目前对于仿真系统的关键引擎动态推演模型如何构建尚没有细致的研究,可参考性、操作性不强,本文系统地探讨了动态推演模型的构建,分析了动态推演在方案评估过程中的作用,设计了军事概念模型,给出了关键步骤的操作、算法、及关键技术,利用该动态推演模型可以构建各种用途的动态推演系统,模型及系统提供指挥员进行战斗方案评估的新的手段,能有效提高我军对方案定量分析的能力。     

以色列边界观的演变

以色列的边界观不仅是其对于边界的态度与看法,而且还浓缩着以色列与阿拉伯国家之间的恩恩怨怨．以色列边界观的演变实际上是以阿关系的另一种写照。对以色列边界观的演变进行论述,以从另一侧面解读以阿关系。