National security,military spending and the business cycle

This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model where national security is an argument in the agent’s utility function and the government chooses optimally the level of military spending to maximize social welfare. National defense depends on military expenditure and on the strategic environment reflecting a potential hostile external threat. We use aggregate data on consumption, investment, and military spending for the US economy to estimate the parameters of the model. Estimation results suggest that consumption and national defense are complements and that military spending variability is mainly explained by external threat shocks although it also depends on the macroeconomic conditions. We compute impulse response functions of the main macroeconomic variables to several shocks: a total factor productivity shock, a defense technology shock, and a strategic environment shock. Surprisingly, we find that the optimal response to an increase in the external threat (a worsening in the strategic environment) will rise output by reducing consumption and increasing investment.     

Rebellion,Repression and Welfare

I develop a dynamic model of social conflict whereby manifest grievances of the poor generate the incentive of taking over political power violently. Rebellion can be an equilibrium outcome depending on the level of preexisting inequality between the poor and the ruling elite, the relative military capabilities of the two groups and the destructiveness of conflict. Once a technology of repression is introduced, widespread fear reduces the parameter space for which rebellion is an equilibrium outcome. However, I show that repression-driven peace comes at a cost as it produces a welfare loss to society.     

两类新的Nash平衡点的精选

本文从系统的观点出发,对n-人非合作对策的解点作了探讨,提出了两类新的Nash平衡点的精选,并证明了其存在性。这两种Nash平衡点分别称之为第一类Nash平衡点和第二类Nash平衡点。第一类Nash平衡点具有冒险性,第二类Nash平衡点具有保守性,二者都满足整体上的最优性。     

EUROPEAN DEFENCE FIRMS: THE INFORMATION BARRIER ON PRIVATE FINANCE*

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, European governments adopted a hands‐off policy towards the defence industrial base, in an attempt to increase the sector’s efficiency and reactivity. In this context, one topical issue is how to motivate defence firms to apply for private rather than public finance. Since banks have no prior experience with European defence firms, a problem of asymmetric information may block this transition. The problem is analysed within the framework of a game between defence firms and banks. It is shown that the Bayesian Equilibrium might correspond to a situation where low‐risk firms prefer the state‐financed scheme; yet, in a perfect information set‐up, the same firms would apply for bank credit. In order to facilitate the transition to private finance, the government might decide to subsidize investors who agree on financing defence firms; the state aid should be made available during a transitory learning period.     

机械故障自动特征向量提取与智能识别系统

有效特征向量的提取和状态识别是设备状态监测与故障诊断中的关键技术.近年来,国内外非常重视特征参量有效性的研究和模式识别方法的探讨.笔者介绍了“机械故障自动特征向量提取与智能识别系统”的设计、结构与功能、实现方法及其应用.     

基于压电薄膜传感器的穿戴式健康监测体域网系统

为实现脉搏、呼吸、血压等重要生理信号的连续运动监测,研制了一种基于压电薄膜传感器的穿戴式健康监测体域网系统。体域网系统利用放置于弹性织物(腰带、腕带)内部的压电薄膜传感器获取人体脉搏波、呼吸波等生理信号。根据压电薄膜传感器监测到的呼吸信号的几何特征提出一种状态识别算法,可区分站立、走、跑、坐、躺、睡眠等状态。利用脉搏波传导时间与血压的关系计算佩戴者的收缩压和舒张压,实现无压迫血压监测。系统通过蓝牙实现体域网节点的互通信,利用穿戴显示设备和移动终端实现数据显示,实现了脉搏、呼吸、血压的连续运动监测。     

Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949

Using a new set of data from Greek Army sources, US military archives, and Communist Party documents, the paper provides a quantitative analysis of the armed confrontation that took place in Greece during 1946–1949. A dynamic Lotka–Volterra model is estimated, pointing to the existence of a conflict trap that explains the prolongation of the civil war and its dire consequences for the country. A regional analysis finds that the mobilization of guerrilla forces was crucially affected by morphology and the local persecutions of political rivals. Using neoclassical growth-accounting, the economic cost of the conflict is estimated to surpass an annual GDP, in line with similar findings in contemporary civil wars. The same framework is employed to assess the outcome in counterfactual situations discussed in this paper.     

潜艇耐压壳体深潜安全性监测技术初探

从设备状态监测诊断技术的一般内容出发,论述了丧失稳定是潜艇耐压壳体在深潜时的主要破坏模式,振动固有频率是表征其安全性储备的特征量。据此提出了安全性监测装置的组成,实艇应用前景及有待研究的问题。     

反辐射无人机在电子战中的应用及其效能分析

简要讨论了反辐射无人机系统的组成和两种典型的反辐射无人机,指出了其在电子战中的应用。并针对某型反辐射无人机的系统能力,即命中概率和毁伤概率进行了理论分析和计算。     

Effect of particle gradation of aluminum on the explosion field pressure and temperature of RDX-based explosives in vacuum and air atmosphere

To optimize the energy output and improve the energy utilization efficiency of an aluminized explosive, an explosion device was developed and used to investigate the detonation pressure and temperature of R1 (Al6) aluminum powder and the aluminum powder particle gradation of R2 (Al6+Al13), R3 (Al6+Al24) and R4 (Al6+Al flake) in a confined space. By using gas chromatography, quantitative analysis and calculations were carried out to analyze the gaseous detonation products. Finally, the reaction ratios of the aluminum powder and the explosion reaction equations were calculated. The results show that in a confined space, the quasi-static pressures and equilibrium temperature of the aluminum powder in air are higher than in vacuum. In vacuum, the quasi-static pressures and equilibrium temperatures of the samples in descending order are R1>R3>R4>R2 and R3>R4>R1>R2, respectively. In air, the quasi-static pressures and equilibrium temperatures of the samples in descending order are R1>R2>R4>R3 and R1>R4>R2>R3, respectively. R4 (Al6+Al flake) and R3 (Al6+Al24) have relatively higher temperatures after detonation, which shows that the particle gradation method can enhance the reaction energy output of aluminum during the initial reaction stage of the explosion and increase the reaction ratio by 10.6% and 8.0%, respectively. In air, the reaction ratio of Al6 aluminum powder can reach as high as 78.16%, and the reaction ratio is slightly reduced after particle gradation. Finally, the reaction equations of the explosives in vacuum and in air were calculated by quantitative analysis of the explosion products, which provides a powerful basis for the study of RDX-based explosive reactions.