基于离散事件仿真要素的军事仿真因果追溯方法

基于离散事件系统建模与仿真的军事仿真系统在军事筹划阶段扮演着至关重要的作用。因果追溯与分析是军事仿真中重要的技术,它可以在大量的数据与复杂的交互关系中找出时序上的关联关系,帮助研究人员确定作战行动中的一些关键实体或事件,用于探究战争的发展脉络与蕴含其中的因果关系。首先对作战仿真领域的因果追溯分析做了简要介绍,然后提出了一种基于离散事件仿真要素的因果追溯分析方法,这种方法可以分析军事仿真中的因果关系,并且有很高的通用性和良好的实用性。     

基于随机时间影响网络的联合火力打击方案评估

联合火力打击方案评估是作战筹划和指挥决策的核心问题之一,对于打击手段的选择、战法的运用等具有重要的影响,其难点是在不确定条件下有效地建立作战方案到使命目标达成效果之间的映射关系.作战仿真方法往往存在突出的低效率问题,而解析模型的方法难以充分反映目标体系的内部联系和整体效果.目前概率推理模型广泛应用于军事领域的作战方案评...     

The role of covariate balance in observational studies

Observational data are prevalent in many fields of research, and it is desirable to use this data to make causal inferences. Because this data is nonrandom, additional assumptions are needed in order to construct unbiased estimators for causal effects. The standard assumption is strong ignorability, though it is often impossible to achieve the level of covariate balance that it requires. As such, researchers often settle for lesser balance levels within their datasets. However, these balance levels are generally insufficient to guarantee an unbiased estimate of the treatment effect without further assumptions. This article presents several extensions to the strong ignorability assumption that address this issue. Under these additional assumptions, specific levels of covariate balance are both necessary and sufficient for the treatment effect estimate to be unbiased. There is a trade‐off, however: as balance decreases, stronger assumptions are required to guarantee estimator unbiasedness. These results unify parametric and nonparametric adjustment methods for causal inference and are actualized by the Balance Optimization Subset Selection framework, which identifies the best level of balance that can be achieved within a dataset. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 323–344, 2017     

一种控制系统的综合故障诊断方法

提出了一种控制系统的综合故障诊断方法 ,用以解决复杂系统的描述困难与诊断准确性问题。通过将控制系统故障检测与诊断分解为一个多层次的过程 ,综合应用因果网络方法与强跟踪滤波器方法 ,实现了两种方法优缺点的互补。仿真表明 ,该方法解决复杂控制系统故障检测与诊断问题是有效的     

欲去明日 问道昨天——走出中国式建筑的困境

中国式建筑的困境在于附加意识形态性的起源和前因后果的关系倒置.近现代建筑进入中国后,曾经保持着与世界的同步发展,直至20世纪50年代初.中国式建筑是伴随着中西古今之争而产生的命题,建筑被赋予了意识形态的内容.在全球化背景下,重新认识中国式建筑产生和发展的局限性,其实质在于混淆了现代化与西方化之区别,将现代化等同于西方化...     

Past failures and future problems: the psychology of irregular war

Personal cognitive processes inform how individuals understand their environment. Cultural variation, fundamental attribution error, causal attribution, and durability bias create obstacles to Western understanding of irregular war and have created a significant institutional bias in how the US military perceives its enemies- a perception only somewhat softened after a decade of irregular war. United Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) is in a better position to overcome these problems through persistent engagement. In the event of major conflict, environmentally sensitized military planners will be better able to achieve military and policy objectives.     

基于贝叶斯网络的态势估计时间推理方法

基于贝叶斯网络的态势估计方法是目前态势估计领域中的主要方法之一,然而,传统的贝叶斯网络不具备时间语义,因此无法解决态势估计中的时间推理问题.基于此,对贝叶斯网络进行改造,研究了时间贝叶斯网络的构建方法.通过一个战场想定,说明了时间贝叶斯网络构建、推理的过程与方法,证明了提出方法的有效性.     

基于时序事件图的作战仿真溯因模型?

通过对作战仿真结果进行因果关系分析,可以加深对作战计划的理解,为指挥决策提供支持,是仿真的重要一环。为了能够对仿真结果进行因果关系分析,首先阐述了溯因和因果关系的概念,对支持溯因的仿真输出数据进行了需求分析,进而构建了以事件为核心描述单元的仿真输出数据模型;根据对事件图基本概念的理解,提出了基于时序事件图的溯因模型,最后给出了仿真输出数据映射为时序事件图的转化算法。     

基于最优因果化提升结构及子带叠混的低内存DWT实现

基于提升结构的因果化实现及优化在将两带滤波器组转化为单进单出系统时子带系数的叠混模式,提出了一种改进的低内存需求的离散小波变换(Enhanced Low-memory Discrete Wavelet Transform,ELDWT)实现方法.相对于DWT的常规全局实现法,基于ELDWT实现的正、逆离散小波变换均具有与...