Warranty claims modeling

A company wishes to estimate or predict its financial exposure in a reporting period of length T (typically one quarter) because of warranty claims. We propose a fairly general random measure model which allows computation of the Laplace transform of the total claim made against the company in the reporting interval due to warranty claims. When specialized to a Poisson process of both sales and warranty claims, statistical estimation of relevant quantities is possible. The methodology is illustrated by analyzing automobile sales and warranty claims data from a large car manufacturer for a single car model and model year. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

加强高校思想政治工作骨干队伍建设之我见

加强高校思想政治工作骨干队伍建设,是高等学校培养合格人才的需要,也是做好新形势下高校思想政治工作的关键所在。针对高校思想政治工作骨干队伍建设面临的困惑,应加强党、政、团干部队伍建设,加强政治理论课专业教师队伍建设。     

Understanding China’s goals and strategy in the South China Sea: bringing context to a revisionist systemic challenge – intentions and impact

ABSTRACT

The slow moving conflict in the South China Sea has been characterized by some as “not worth the candle.” China claims the entirety of the South China Sea pursuant to a nine-dash line, the legal impact of which has been limited by international courts. At the same time, China has changed the reality of control over the South China Sea by building a number of fortified islands in the Spratly Islands and elsewhere. The US has either refused to stand up to China's behavior (Obama) or responded unevenly (Trump). This paper examines the impact of China's behaviour on local parties, US interests, and the liberal international system.     

带交易未定权益有偏好无套利定价

针对引入的有交易费正常化资产模型和有偏好套期保值投资策略,利用辅助鞅和资产折算函 数方法,讨论了未定权益的有偏好无套利机会定价问题,还给出了相应的有偏好无套利机会的定价区间。     

An enterprise portfolio approach for defence capability planning

Capability-based planning (CBP) is considered by many defence organisations to be the best practice for enterprise-level planning, analysis and management. This approach, loosely based around investment portfolio theory, is premised on balancing the cost, benefit and risk of capability options across the defence enterprise. However a number of authors have recently noted limitations of its current applications. The authors propose a more general, insurance-based approach, which can support the evolutionary improvement of the current CBP approach. This approach is implemented as hedging-based planning and aims to better reflect the enterprise nature of defence organisations, capturing both force structure and force generation aspects of military systems.     

有交易费的套期保值未定权益的最小债券价值量

讨论带交易费的多种股票的市场模型中未定权益的套期保值定价问题,提出折算函数作为总资产的一种较为合理的衡量方式,并来刻画套期保值策略,从而,利用鞅方法和折算函数的性质,得到带交易费套期保值未定权益的最小债券价值量结果。     

带交易费的市场模型和未定权益套期保值

给出了有交易费的且多种股票参与交易的市场模型,并且讨论在此市场模型下的未定权益套期保值问题,在这一模型中,假定仅债券与股票之间有交易,而不同股票之间不直接进行交易以及交易费率是常数。     

Partial equilibrium in risk‐based production decisions

Characteristically, a small subset of operational problems admit risk neutrality when contingent claims methodology were used in their analysis. That is, for the majority of manufacturing and production problems, operating cash flows are not directly linked to prices of traded assets. However, to the extent that correlations can be estimated, the methodology's applicability to a broader set of operational problems is supported. Our article addresses this issue with the objective of extending the use of contingent claims techniques to a larger set of operational problems. In broad terms, this objective entails a partial equilibrium approach to the problem of valuing uncertain cash flows. To this end, we assume risk aversion and cast our approach within Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In this context, we formulate a “generic” production valuation model that is framed as an exercise in stochastic optimal control. The model is versatile in its characterization and can easily be adapted to accommodate a wide‐ranging set of risk‐based operational problems where the underlying sources of uncertainty are not traded. To obtain results, the model is recast as a stochastic dynamic program to be solved numerically. The article addresses a number of fundamental issues in the analysis risk based decision problems in operations. First, in the approach provided, decisions are analyzed under a properly defined risk structure. Second, the process of analysis leads to suitably adjusted probability distributions through which, appropriately discounted expectations are derived. Third, through consolidating existing concepts into a standard and adaptable framework, we extend the applicability of contingent claims methodology to a broader set of operational problems. The approach is advantageous as it obviates the need for exogenously specifying utility functions or discount rates.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

THE ‘PRICE’ OF TERRORISM

Security measures are said to increase the price of terrorism. This price has not been hitherto defined in an economically meaningful way. This paper provides a precise definition by treating the terrorists’ resource endowment as a parcel of contingent claims to political influence with a price equal to the summed value of those contingent claims in potential states of the world. Equipped with this definition, an equilibrium model of the price of terrorism is deployed. Important insights are gained into the effect of terrorists’ risk aversion at the level of the price of terrorism in different states of the world and the theoretical conclusion is reached that higher security is associated with a lower price of terrorism rather than a higher price. The implications for policy are discussed.