一个组合对策问题的解

本文求解如下的组合对策问题:设有一堆棋子,总数N 是奇数,甲乙两人轮流取子,每人每次可取一颗、二颗,最多可取s 颗,但不能不取,直至取完后分别来数甲乙两人所取棋子的总数,总数为奇数者获胜。站在甲的立场上考虑获胜的策略,文中解决了如下两个问题:(Ⅰ)总数N 应是什么样的奇数,甲才有获胜策略;(Ⅱ)当N 一定时,甲应采取什么样的策略取子,才能获胜。     

C~3I系统分析的分层策略

通过对Ｃ３Ｉ系统体系结构的多维多层次性特征的分析,表明Ｃ３Ｉ系统分析的分层策略是一种突出系统整体性,体现系统相关性,实现从定性到定量综合集成的有效方略,可以应用于Ｃ３Ｉ系统分析的各个阶段。     

火力使用策略的集对分析与评价

对不确定理论──集对分析理论［１］中关于联系度的算法作了修改,给出了更有实际意义的联系度公式。应用此公式采用同异反决策分析的方法,首先对“火力使用策略”进行定性分析,把影响火力使用的７对主要矛盾看作７个集对,定义每集对的同异反三属性的测量要素。通过求各集对的联系度所在问题的解,达到择优最佳“火力使用策略”的目的,从而对战役行动起到指导或辅助决策的作用。     

时序逻辑的并行描述与隐含遍历

随着电路规模的迅速增长,设计验证越来越复杂,从而需要高速的数据处理系统。基于总线型多机系统环境,研究电路网表和布尔表达式的BDD（Binary Decision Diagram）并行构造方法,并通过隐含遍历任务的动态调度设计有效地完成时序逻辑的状态遍历。     

Slow failure: Understanding America’s quagmire in Afghanistan

ABSTRACT

The United States government has no organised way of thinking about war termination other than seeking decisive military victory. This implicit assumption is inducing three major errors. First, the United States tends to select military-centric strategies that have low probabilities of success. Second, the United States is slow to modify losing or ineffective strategies due to cognitive obstacles, internal frictions, and patron-client challenges with the host nation government. Finally, as the U.S. government tires of the war and elects to withdraw, bargaining asymmetries prevent successful transitions (building the host nation to win on its own) or negotiations.     

智能搜救机器人在障碍地形的自主构型规划

为了解决带有辅助摆臂的智能搜救机器人自动规划构型以实现自主越障的难题,提出一种能够适应复杂地面形状的搜救机器人越障构型规划新方法,其核心是一种高适应性、高效率的机器人姿态预测算法。通过将地形表示为离散的点集,建立了搜救机器人的单侧姿态预测数学模型;进一步提出了快速求解该问题的算法,每秒可预测1 000～1 500个姿态。基于此,设计了机器人越障过程中状态、动作的评价指标,运用动态规划算法与滚动优化思想构建了具有优化能力的、能够实时运行的构型规划器。仿真与实物实验的结果表明,该方法能够使机器人自主调整构型穿越复杂地形,且相较强化学习算法和人工操作具有更平稳的越障效果。     

导弹集成测试策略研究

以美国军方在武器系统研发、生产和维护过程中推行的设计—制造—维护纵向集成测试策略为参考,针对我国导弹武器系统的测试和诊断技术的应用和发展现状,论述了适合我国导弹测试系统开发的集成测试策略。     

Contracts and coordination: Supply chains with uncertain demand and supply

Considering a supply chain with a supplier subject to yield uncertainty selling to a retailer facing stochastic demand, we find that commonly studied classical coordination contracts fail to coordinate both the supplier's production and the retailer's procurement decisions and achieve efficient performance. First, we study the vendor managed inventory (VMI) partnership. We find that a consignment VMI partnership coupled with a production cost subsidy achieves perfect coordination and a win‐win outcome; it is simple to implement and arbitrarily allocates total channel profit. The production cost subsidy optimally chosen through Nash bargaining analysis depends on the bargaining power of the supplier and the retailer. Further, motivated by the practice that sometimes the retailer and the supplier can arrange a “late order,” we also analyze the behavior of an advance‐purchase discount (APD) contract. We find that an APD with a revenue sharing contract can efficiently coordinate the supply chain as well as achieve flexible profit allocation. Finally, we explore which coordination contract works better for the supplier vs. the retailer. It is interesting to observe that Nash bargaining solutions for the two coordination contracts are equivalent. We further provide recommendations on the applications of these contracts. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 305–319, 2016     

基于优先权的分布式网络设备智能轮询策略研究

针对大型网络其地域分布广,监测对象较多,监测周期过长,实时性较差且管理流量负载较大等问题,提出一种分布式网络设备智能轮询策略。在域内,针对轮询周期调整问题,通过构造体现管理者意志的评判矩阵和求解反映数据特征的DFT(离散傅立叶变换)确定轮询优先级和轮询周期取值范围,提出了基于变化率的轮询周期调整算法;在域间,通过触发和查询实现对特殊事件的采集。最后进行了仿真,表明该策略能够在减轻网络负载的同时,准确刻画网络的状态。     

关于颠覆性技术发展的理性认知

随着美国揭开第三次"抵消战略"重点发展对象的面纱,研发"颠覆性技术"已成为主要军事大国获得技术优势的手段。当前世界新一轮科技革命、产业革命、军事革命交织并行,给颠覆性技术提供了难得的良好机遇。但当我们看见颠覆性技术引领时代新型武器装备潮流发展的同时,也应理性看待其背后潜藏的风险。通过概述总结颠覆性技术研究现状,分析其推动的科技内生性变革,从本质上对其进行理性认知。研究表明,发展颠覆性技术必须积极作为,谨慎对待。