系统辨识在建立舰船电力推进动态模型中的应用

舰船电力推进是一个复杂的船—机—电系统。对其动态特性的研究,利用现有的基于理论分析建立机理模型的方法,就会遇到分析过程繁杂、模型适用性差的实际困难。本文则利用系统辨识方法建立舰船电力推进系统的动态模型,通过一个具体的船模实验及辨识计算,确定模型的结构和参数。为了克服相关噪声的影响,参数估计中采用了增广矩阵法。并对模型从拟合程度和收敛性两方面进行了检验,结果表明,上述方法所得到的动态模型是适用的。     

Dynamic institutionalization: the foundations of Japan’s radioactive problem

Many have suggested that the true purpose behind Japan’s development of a closed nuclear-fuel cycle is to maintain the technical potential to develop nuclear weapons. However, closer examination of the development of Japan’s nuclear industry shows that, although Japan possesses advanced nuclear technologies, there has been no deliberate strategy to create a nuclear-weapon option. There is no “nuclear hedge.” To illustrate this point, this article presents a framework called “dynamic institutionalization” to explain the origins of Japan’s nuclear policies and the different sets of institutionalized pressures and constraints that have perpetuated these policies over time. Japan’s continued development of closed fuel-cycle technologies is primarily driven by domestic politics and the lack of a permanent spent-fuel management solution. On the other hand, Japan’s institutionalized nuclear forbearance is driven by the calculation that, as long as US extended deterrence remains credible, Japan’s security is best guaranteed through reliance on the US nuclear umbrella. By analytically untangling the policy of closed fuel-cycle development from the rationale for nuclear forbearance, this article provides a more nuanced view of the relationships between the domestic and international variables shaping Japan’s nuclear policies.     

稀薄气体动理论中介观尺度数值模拟的加速方法

针对滑移流、早期过渡流区域采用离散速度法(discrete velocity method, DVM)求解Boltzmann方程收敛速度极慢、计算资源消耗大的难题,提出全流场耦合介观/宏观方程加速方法。在介观层面基于有限差分的DVM求解Boltzmann方程,在宏观层面基于有限体积的压力耦合方程组半隐式方法求解矩方程,充分利用纳维-斯托克斯-傅里叶/R26矩方程在低克努森数下的快速收敛特性,对介观方程进行加速。基于高阶Hermite多项式重构分布函数,完成宏观方程与介观方程之间的数据传输。仿真结果表明:全流场耦合介观/宏观方程的加速方法在滑移流、早期过渡流区域具有显著加速性能,最大降低了95.28%的计算时长;但对中、大克努森数流域,加速性能大幅度下降。     

一种面向Agent的概念化建模方法*

面向Agent的建模方法为基于Agent系统的概念化描述提供了一种新的技术.针对多Agent系统分析与建模问题,扩展并规范了面向Agent概念化建模过程,定义了Agent模型及其扩展模型,并给出了形式化描述.同时,给出面向Agent的分析和设计过程,为其具体建模提供了一种高层指导.最后,与其它现有面向Agent的方法在应用方面进行了类比分析,为该方法的广泛和深入地应用研究打下基础.     

Estimating failure time distribution and its parameters based on intermediate data from a Wiener degradation model

Instead of measuring a Wiener degradation or performance process at predetermined time points to track degradation or performance of a product for estimating its lifetime, we propose to obtain the first‐passage times of the process over certain nonfailure thresholds. Based on only these intermediate data, we obtain the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and uniformly most accurate confidence interval for the mean lifetime. For estimating the lifetime distribution function, we propose a modified maximum likelihood estimator and a new estimator and prove that, by increasing the sample size of the intermediate data, these estimators and the above‐mentioned estimator of the mean lifetime can achieve the same levels of accuracy as the estimators assuming one has failure times. Thus, our method of using only intermediate data is useful for highly reliable products when their failure times are difficult to obtain. Furthermore, we show that the proposed new estimator of the lifetime distribution function is more accurate than the standard and modified maximum likelihood estimators. We also obtain approximate confidence intervals for the lifetime distribution function and its percentiles. Finally, we use light‐emitting diodes as an example to illustrate our method and demonstrate how to validate the Wiener assumption during the testing. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

船舶静态电场跟踪的渐进更新扩展卡尔曼滤波器

为了实现利用船舶静态电场对船舶进行跟踪的目的,针对传统卡尔曼滤波算法中存在的问题,设计一种新的非线性滤波器。建立船舶的状态空间模型,分析传统卡尔曼滤波算法在船舶跟踪中存在的问题;依据渐进贝叶斯思想,利用连续白噪声与离散白噪声序列噪声协方差之间的关系,设计一种新的渐进更新扩展卡尔曼滤波器。仿真结果表明,该滤波器能有效地抑制由于初始误差较大而造成的滤波性能下降和滤波发散,能够有效地跟踪船舶,具有较高的实用价值。     

Introduction

ABSTRACT

The new nuclear history can make a critical contribution by forcing us to reconsider or reframe the theoretical premises of the concepts we apply to our understanding of the present – and with which we try to navigate the future. It bears on fundamental questions, such as: How should the US manage its alliances? Should it establish a multilateral nuclear policy dialogue in Asia? In what depth should it discuss issues of doctrine and targeting with its Asian allies? What capabilities might reassure European allies in light of current Russian revisionism? Could nuclear war be limited and controlled in an East Asian maritime arena? Do nuclear weapons strengthen an alliance, or do they introduce a divisive bone of contention? Is extended nuclear deterrence (END) stabilizing or is it on the contrary pushing the allies to ask for more? What is the relationship between nuclear and conventional forces in END credibility? How do nuclear alliances contribute to international security and international order? The lessons and insights from these papers, which look at five historical cases of US extended deterrence during the Cold War, should help us think about crucial current issues, and be of use both to historians who want to have a better understanding of the Cold War past and to policymakers who are currently grappling with these issues.     

学前儿童交通安全教育的价值探析

对学前儿童进行交通安全教育的直接目的是减少交通事故,保护其生命和身体,同时还具有重要的教育价值。基于教育价值的两个方面即教育的个人价值和社会价值,学前儿童交通安全教育的价值主要体现在对学前儿童的发展价值和以学前儿童为中心扩散开来的延伸价值。发展价值是指交通安全教育促进学前儿童的认知、动作、情意等方面的发展。延伸价值是指学前儿童获得的交通安全知识与意识、规则与行为、尊重与利他等对其成为合格的社会公民是一种自然而然的准备,同时在生态系统理论之下以儿童为中心扩散开来的重要他人、社会相关机构和行业等都会发生相应的改变,将最终有利于社会的进步。     

通用扩张状态观测器鲁棒飞行控制方法

针对存在参数不确定、外界干扰与测量噪声情况下飞行控制问题,提出一种基于通用扩张状态观测器的鲁棒飞行控制方法。首先基于状态相关的Riccati方程（SDRE）控制方法,对飞行器俯仰通道非线性模型进行扩展线性化;而后引入基于通用扩张状态观测器的控制方法,设计干扰补偿增益,实现对外界干扰的估计与补偿;最后通过在线解算状态相关矩阵及代数黎卡提方程,得出状态反馈增益与干扰补偿增益,实现对飞行器期望攻角的跟踪控制。通过与已有方法进行对比,验证了本文所提方法不仅对系统模型不确定性与外界干扰具有较强鲁棒性,而且在较大测量噪声情况下,其依然能够保证良好的跟踪控制效果,具有较强的工程应用价值。     

轮毂电机驱动车辆转向控制策略

为提高轮毂电机驱动车辆转向机动灵活性以及安全稳定性,提出了一种基于直接横摆力矩控制的转向控制策略。以带有双桥转向机构的8轮轮毂电机驱动车辆为研究对象,研究其双重转向控制问题,建立基于车辆二自由度单轨模型的车辆参考模型,并以横摆角速度作为控制变量,建立基于横摆力矩PID控制器和横摆力矩分配控制器的转向分层控制模型。利用硬件在环实时仿真实验对所提出的转向控制策略的可行性和有效性进行分析验证。