Transnational policing: preemption and deterrence against elusive perpetrators

Why does a state directly police certain kinds of transnational perpetrators by itself while indirectly policing other kinds through their host government? To address this question, we develop a formal model, where Defender chooses either to police Perpetrators or to make Proxy do so. According to our theory, the delegation of policing can enhance its effectiveness in light of Proxy’s three advantages: (a) Proxy can convince Perpetrators of punishments more credibly than Defender (communicative advantage); (b) Proxy is more likely to identify Perpetrators and detect what they hold dear (informational advantage); (c) Proxy can cripple and punish Perpetrators more effectively (offensive advantage). On the other hand, the delegation may cause inefficiency if Defender has limited information about Proxy’s choice or cost of policing. Depending on the relative size between these advantages and disadvantages, one of the following four forms of policing may emerge: (i) Defender polices Perpetrators on her own (e.g. Somali counter-piracy operations); (ii) Defender induces Proxy to police Perpetrators (U.S. War on Drugs in Colombia and Mexico); (iii) Defender and Proxy together police Perpetrators (Operation Inherent Resolve); (iv) two or more Defender-Proxy states police Perpetrators in each’s own domain (Interpol, Budapest Convention).     

对警卫工作中反恐怖活动的思考

恐怖活动已成为世界一大公害,给一些国家和人民带来巨大的精神压力和心理恐惧,给国家政局稳定和经济发展造成巨大的负面影响。探索警卫工作中反恐怖斗争的方法、对策,对于防范和打击恐怖活动,确保各项警卫任务的圆满完成具有重要意义。     

Modern Irregular Warfare: The ISIS Case Study

ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) has become a key political and military actor in the Middle East and in North Africa. This essay aims at outlining ISIS warfare through an analysis of its operations in the frame of hybrid warfare theory proposed by Frank Hoffman. Therefore, the paper deals with: the role of terrorist tactics in ISIS warfare and the relationship between terrorism and insurgency; ISIS use of technology, mainly with regard to suicide attacks and to drones; and the relevance of urban warfare. Finally, the paper highlights how ISIS operates and the most threatening features of its warfare.     

Deterrence of nuclear terrorism in the context of South Asia

Stability among the great powers during the Cold War is widely theorized in terms of nuclear deterrence. Rationality of states and their preference for survival are the basis of nuclear deterrence. The rationality of non-state terrorist groups is different from that of nation-states. Even though they are also rational actors with their own hierarchy of preferences, survival may not be their ultimate goal. Deterrence of nuclear terrorism is therefore different from deterrence against states. South Asia is more vulnerable to nuclear terrorism than any other region of the world for many reasons. This article analyzes the possibility of nuclear terrorism and the ways of deterrence against it in the context of South Asia.     

Military support and transnational terrorism

Analysing the relationship between the provision of military support and the probability of becoming the target of a terrorist attack, this paper contributes to the literature on the causes of transnational terrorism. We find that deployment of military troops of country X in country Y increases the probability of a terrorist attack on citizens of country X by a terrorist group located in country Y. Exporting weapons to country Y seems to increase the probability of being attacked by the terrorists of this country Y as well. Deploying materials, however, does not seem to significantly influence the probability of attack. Including lagged values for our military support variables ensures that the causality direction is from military support to terrorist attacks. Moreover, these results indicate that while the effect of military deployment on the probability of attack lasts for more than 1 year, the effect is rather short-lived.     

新疆边境地区反恐情报保障问题研究

反恐情报保障是反恐行动的重要组成部分和决策依据。针对新疆边境地区情报力量建设较弱、情报保障手段单一、与有关部门缺乏有效的交流机制等问题,公安边防部门应采取加强情报力量建设、完善情报保障机制、充分利用各种情报手段和加强情报交流与合作等有效措施,不断提高反恐情报保障能力,掌握反恐怖斗争的主动权。     

我国反恐系统化处置机制的建构

恐怖主义是威胁当今世界和平与稳定的主要因素。“藏独”和“疆独”是我国当前面临的主要恐怖势力。传统单一性的反恐处置模式在打击恐怖主义时很容易陷入顾此失彼的困难境地。坚持立足全局和放宽视野,从系统化的角度提出一套反恐处置战略具有十分重要的理论价值和实践意义。在反恐处置机制中,要充分发挥法律战的基础性作用、情报战的先导性作用、经济战的根源性作用、心理战的瓦解性作用、舆论战的宣传性作用以及协作战的堵截性作用。     

美国对化学、生物恐怖事件防护装备的技术要求分析

为了给在核化生事件中遂行任务的应急处置人员提供符合要求的个人防护装备,美国于2001年实施了NFPA1994《化学、生物恐怖事件用防护装具标准》．介绍了该标准中提出的化学、生物恐怖事件防护装备的技术要求,包括设计要求和技术性能要求,并讨论了各级防护装具的使用场合和时机、防护服的型式结构和对防护材料的要求．     

India: Fleeting Attachment to the Counterinsurgency Grand Strategy

India’s success in dealing with insurgency movements was based on adherence to four key rules of engagement: identifying a lead counter-insurgent force, launching population-centric counterinsurgency (COIN) operations, non-use of excessive force and confining the role of the COIN operations to preparing a ground for a political solution. While the country does not yet have a COIN doctrine, these four rules of engagement do constitute what can be referred to a COIN grand strategy. Analysis of the several continuing insurgencies, however, reveals the country’s inability to adhere to the grand strategy. Political considerations, incapacity to manoeuvre through the demands of various stake holders, and even the wish to expedite the decimation of insurgent outfits through a force-centric approach has produced a long history of failures in dousing the fires of discontent.