声自导雷平行齐射发现概率解析计算模型

为了准确快速地评估声自导鱼雷平行齐射的作战效能（发现概率），从鱼雷、目标的相对运动入手，将目标位置及运动随机误差转移到鱼雷航向上；如此建立了计算声自导鱼雷平行齐射发现概率的一重积分解析模型（不考虑鱼雷航行性能误差）和四重积分解析计算模型（考虑鱼雷航行性能误差）。最后以统计模型为标准来验证两个解析模型的正确性。仿真结果显示，对于90%左右的考察态势，解析模型与统计模型的结果差的绝对值在1%之内，另外10%左右的考察态势，也在1%-3%之间。从而验证了所建解析模型的正确性和可行性。

analytic method for computing finding probability of salvo of two acoustic homing torpedoes

In order to evaluate the combat effectiveness or finding probability of salvo of two acoustic homing torpedoes accurately and quickly, the target position and motion random errors are transferred to the torpedo course according to the relative motion of torpedo and target. Two analytic models are established to compute the finding probability of salvo of two acoustic homing torpedoes; one is the definite integral analytical model (without regard to torpedo sailing performance error) and quadruple integral analytic model (considering the torpedo sailing performance error). Finally the correctness of the analytic model will be verified through comparing with statistical model. Simulation results show that the absolute value of the difference between analytic model and statistical model is smaller than 0.01 for ninety percent of the investigated situational, and smaller than 0.03 for all the situational. So the analytic model is correct.