基于Marcov模型的舰艇舱室火灾蔓延风险

假设舰艇舱室内火灾蔓延按照发生燃烧的物品引燃次序进行,将舰艇舱室内可燃物燃烧分成若干种不同的燃烧状态,采用时问连续状态离散的Marcov模型,先后计算舰艇舱室火灾蔓延的转移概率速率函数和转移概率函数,得到不同时间下各种燃烧状态的概率分布,从而得到舰艇舱室火灾最大风险来临时间.此半经验的理论模型,可以用于舰艇火灾风险预测.

Fire spreading risk in ship's cabin based on Marcov model

Supposing that fire spreads in the order of ignition of combustible goods used in ship s cabin, combustion can be divided into some states. The Marcov model whose time is continuous and whose state is discrete can be used to compute the transfer probability velocity function and the transfer probability function so as to obtain probability at different combustion states. Thus, the critical time when fire risk is the maximum in ship's cabin can be found. The model is a semi-experiment model, which can be used for predicting fire risk.