基于Monte Carlo的军事物流结点可靠性评估方法

军事物流网络结点是构成军事物流网络的基本要素。战场环境瞬息万变,结点的可靠性往往受许多不确定因素的影响,计及不确定因素的评估方法可以更客观、真实地评估结点的可靠性。基于此,提出了刻画物流结点可靠性的评估指标体系,建立了计及不确定因素的军事物流结点可靠性评估模型,给出了Monte Carlo求解算法。对影响结点可靠性的因素进行了分析,在此基础上提出了改善军事物流结点可靠性的措施。以某战役级军事物流网络为例进行算例分析,验证了该方法的可行性和正确性。

A Reliability Evaluation Method for Military Logistics Nodes with Monte Carlo Technique

Military logistics nodes are basic elements of military logistics network. Reliability evaluation of nodes that takes uncertain factors into account is more objective due to the fact that battlefield environment is changing all the time and reliability of nodes is always affected by lots of uncertain factors. This paper presents a systematic reliability evaluation technique using a series of reliability indices, sets up a reliability evaluation model that takes uncertain factors of military logistics nodes into account, and works out a solution algorithm based on Monte Carlo technique. This paper also analyzes those factors which impact reliability of nodes, on the basis of which, some measures are presented to improve reliability of military logistics nodes. Case studies on some certain campaign.evel logistics network indicate hat the proposed method is feasible and accuracy.