| Abstract: | With constant firing, metal fatigue produces cracks in a gun barrel. The useful life of the barrel comes to an end when a crack develops to a critical size. The theory of Fracture Mechanics suggests a formula for crack size growth rate. This formula can be used to determine the life of a barrel, depending on the initial and critical crack sizes and other factors. The initial crack size turns out to be a dominant factor. Unfortunately, accurate measurements are not generally available on the initial crack size. In this paper, we propose a simple probability model for the initial crack size and this, in turn, leads to a probability distribution of the life of the barrel. This last distribution is the well-known exponential distribution with a location shift. The simplicity of this final result is one of the factors that make the model appealing. |
